Draft: Final. APPENDIX 6: South Gloucestershire Council Climate Emergency Declaration Review of Year One of the Climate Emergency Action Plan South Gloucestershire Council Climate Emergency University Advisory Group UWE Bristol October 2020 1 Draft: Final. Index Section Page Executive Summary 3 Introduction and Context 8 South Gloucestershire’s Climate Emergency Process 10 South Gloucestershire’s Baseline 13 South Gloucestershire’s Climate Emergency Year 1 15 Action Plan Gaps in the Content of the Year 1 Plan 19 Year on Year Reduction in Emissions Required to 20 Meet the Target Areas of Focus for the Year 2 Plan 22 Recommendations for Improving Partnership Work 24 and Increasing Area Wide Engagement on the Climate Emergency Strategic Context (Political, Environmental, Social, 29 Technical, Legal, Economic) analysis Comparison of South Gloucestershire’s Climate Action 30 with that of North Somerset, Oxford, Plymouth and Wiltshire. Fit of South Gloucestershire’s Actions with the 42 National Policy Direction Summary, Conclusions and Recommendations 46 Appendix 1. 50 Setting Climate Commitments for South Gloucestershire. Quantifying the implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement for South Gloucestershire. Tyndall Centre Method Appendix 2. Oxford City Council Climate Emergency 52 Appendix 3. Wiltshire Climate Emergency 58 Appendix 4. North Somerset Climate Emergency 60 Appendix 5. Plymouth City Council Climate 62 Emergency Appendix 6. Global Warming of 1.5°C IPCC Special 64 Report. Summary Report for Policymakers Appendix 7 A Note on Terms 64 Note: All web sites accessed in September and October 2020 2 Draft: Final. Executive Summary South Gloucestershire Council asked UWE’ University Advisory Group to review Year One of the Climate Emergency Action Plan. In doing so the Council posed 10 questions for UWE to answer in critically assessing the Action Plan. 1. Climate Emergency Process – Please provide an assessment of the process to advise if any expected steps have been missed out that need to be picked up? The process is robust from a policy and planning perspective. The approach encompasses a declaration of a climate emergency with all party support. This is underpinned by a clear strategy with actions delegated to appropriate entities in a task and finish model. A governance structure is in place which loops back to the Cabinet via the Cabinet Report. Responsibility for the district wide elements of the plan is shared with members of the Local Strategic Partnership. Evidence from a survey of LSP members does not suggest that the major employers are, as yet, fully engaged in this task. 2. Baseline – Is this robust? Is further baselining/research required? The Baseline is robust enough for actions to be planned and executed. However, continuing action to enhance the accuracy and precision of the baseline is recommended. It may require updating to ensure that new knowledge about emission sources and rates is incorporated in the base year estimate. This action will be consistent with the way in which the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory operates. The baseline should be accompanied by a robust plan to reduce direct emissions year on year. Consideration should be given to setting a target annual carbon budget and percentage reduction required for remaining years until 2030. The existing baseline position has been identified through an external consultancy using acceptable and sector recognised methods to determine the baseline. 3. Climate Emergency Year 1 Action Plan: What reflection can be made on this foundation Year 1 plan to tackle the Climate Emergency? Policy and plans are in place and the challenge is to ensure that all actors are aware and acting on the signals in the Action Plan. Evidence from a survey of LSP members does not suggest that the major employers are fully engaged in this task. The Year 1 Action Plan identified a suite of priority projects split into two groups. Those projects already funded through existing budgets and those for which funding will be sought from within the £1.7 million over the 4 year Medium Term Financial Plan (MTFP), in addition to the £85k allocated to early Climate Emergency investments in October 2019 and investments through the Capital Programme. It is not clear how much of the intended investment in climate action has been secured for use. The Action Plan contains actions in 7 categories. • Cross Cutting, • Buildings/Built Development, 3 Draft: Final. • Transport (& infrastructure /Highways), • Renewable Energy • Green Infrastructure and Nature Recovery, • Resources and Waste, • Adaptation and Resilience. Each project is assigned a starting stage dependent upon its maturity: Prepare, Develop or Implement. These terms should be defined. Projects are split into two categories – funded or planned. Under half of the funded projects have reached the stage of Implement. Under half of the planned projects are described as Implement. Over half of the projects will be led by the Council. Adaptation and Resilience has the smallest number of projects identified for action in each category. 4. What gaps do you identify in the content of the Year 1 plan that need to be addressed in subsequent plans? The Year 1 Action Plan is comprehensive in its consideration of areas for action covering the key emission sources. It is not clear what the priority assigned to each action might be but this could be clarified either by a ‘likely impact score’ based likely carbon saving or adaptation benefit. A tally should be kept of projects moving between Prepare, Develop, Implement categories. Projects with large and early carbon savings need to be prioritised in subsequent Actions Plans. Communication and behaviour change messaging needs to be enhanced and LSP members encouraged to act as a champions within their own organisations and with stakeholders. Adaptation is under represented in the Action Plan and further attention is recommended in subsequent Action Plans. A greater emphasis in year 2 on community engagement and actions for citizens is desirable and this could link to a local Citizens’ Assembly and /or local COP 26 activity. Offsetting or carbon compensation/ carbon balancing requires further consideration exploring both the potential and the timing of when such actions should be undertaken. This would be both a direct action for the council and an Inspire activity. Consideration should be given to promoting a WECA wide project with a managed fund established from the proceeds of offsetting and dedicated to reinvestment in verifiable offsetting or carbon management / adaptation projects. Consideration should be given to insetting opportunities on council owned land and opportunities for offsetting on the agricultural land within the District, estimated to be 64% of the area. 5. What year on year reduction in emissions needs to be achieved? In order to meet the zero target of 2030 a linear reduction of 34% per annum is required from a 2020 baseline of 1048.5 kt CO2e It is important to ‘bank’ emission savings early in the decade to 2030. If reduction actions are planned for implementation in later years but for whatever reason are delayed or only partially successful then this runs the risk of overshooting the target year. 4 Draft: Final. An additional risk from planning major reductions later in the decade arises from any failure of earlier year actions to deliver the expected savings. In such a case the missed part of the reduction must be added to future years and increases the difficulty of achieving the annual targets for future years. 6. What areas of focus should be prioritised in the Year 2 plan? • Mitigation of Scope 1 and 2 emissions • Further consideration of Scope 3 emissions both Council and District wide. • Integration of climate considerations into routine council business • Action to enhance co benefits of ecological recovery and climate action. • Training of staff • Communications Strategy • Acceleration of Adaptation consideration and moving to implementation actions • Outreach activity to win hearts and minds, link to local COP 26 activity. • Exploration of collaboration opportunities with WECA and local councils to identify early implementation opportunities and possible economies of scale for shared actions. • A greater emphasis in year 2 on community engagement and actions for citizens is desirable and this could link to a local Citizens’ Assembly and /or local COP 26 activity. • Offsetting or carbon compensation/ carbon balancing requires further consideration exploring both the potential and the timing of when such actions should be undertaken. This would be both a direct action for the council and also an Inspire activity. • Consideration should be given to promoting a WECA wide project with a managed fund established from the proceeds of offsetting and dedicated to reinvestment in verifiable offsetting or carbon management / adaptation projects. • Consideration should be given to insetting opportunities on council owned land and opportunities for offsetting on the agricultural land within the District, estimated to be 64% of the area. 7. What recommendations do you make for improving partnership work and increasing area wide engagement on Climate Emergency across the area? • Efforts should continue to enhance the response rate from the LSP survey, improve the quality of information provided including details of the anticipated carbon saving from the actions undertaken by LSP members. • The routine LSP agenda should contain an item to update progress by members in responding to the Climate Emergency. • The LSP should routinely discuss the challenge of actions to deliver net zero • Actions decided at LSP meetings should include quantification of the impact of a decision on the Net Zero target and the carbon budget for the period to 2030. This could be expressed as the percentage share of the annual carbon budget that implementing the decision will expend. • LSP members should be encouraged to discuss and agree actions that will adapt their business and build resilience in the face of climate change. 5 Draft: Final. 8. Strategic Context (Political, Environmental, Social, Technical, Legal, Economic) analysis A PESTLE analysis has been performed.