PLANNING VARIABLE DEVELOPMENT AND METHODOLOGY Regional Transportation Commission Of Southern Nevada (RTC) Metropolitan Planning Organization 600 South Grand Central Parkway, Suite 350 Las Vegas, Nevada 89106 July 2020 Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada Acknowledgement The Planning Variable (PV) projections are the results of the collaborative efforts of the Land Use Working Group (LUWG) and the RTC of Southern Nevada. The LUWG includes the following organizations: Clark County Comprehensive Planning Department City of Las Vegas Planning and Development Department City of North Las Vegas Planning and Development Department City of Henderson Community Development Department RTC wishes to recognize and extend its appreciation to the above organizations for their valuable assistance in the development of PV projections. RTC would also like to express its appreciations to the LUWG, the following LUWG members and individuals for their input and participation in the planning process: LUWG members Mario Bermudez, Clark County Richard Wassmuth, City of Las Vegas Johanna Murphy, City of North Las Vegas Andrew Powell, City of Henderson Ayoub Ayoub, Southern Nevada Water Authority Bill Murray, Las Vegas Water District Brian MAnallen, Las Vegas Chamber JJ Peck, CBRE Mark Silverstein, Roben Armstrong: McCarran Airport Richard Baldwin, Clark County School District Rick Schroder, City of Las Vegas Shane Ammerman, Clark County Sharianne Dotson, City of North Las Vegas Victor Rodriguez, Nellis Air Force Base Alexander Tong, Clark County Consultant Team Bob Scales, Parsons Transportation Group Sathya Thyagaraj,Parsons Transportation Group Eric Coumou, Parsons Transportation Group RTC Staff Lijuan Su, Senior Transportation Planner, RTC MPO Planning Chin-Cheng Chen, Principal Transportation Planner, RTC MPO Planning Grant Shirts, Transportation Planner, RTC MPO Planning Hui Shen, Senior Transportation Planner, RTC MPO Planning Beth Xie, Transportation Planning Manager, RTC MPO Planning 2019 Planning Variables Page i Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada Table of Contents Table of Contents .............................................................................................................ii List of Tables ................................................................................................................... iii List of Maps .....................................................................................................................iv Executive Summary ...................................................................................................... v 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 8 2. DATA SOURCE HIGHLIGHTS FOR PV CREATION ........................................... 9 2.1 Data Structure of PVs .................................................................................... 9 3. DEVELOPMENT OF POPULATION .................................................................. 11 3.1 Base Year Land Use and Population ........................................................... 11 3.2 Future Year Land Use Forecast ................................................................... 13 3.3 Future Year Population Development ........................................................... 15 3.4 Benchmark ................................................................................................... 18 4 DEVELOPMENT OF EMPLOYMENT .................................................................... 19 4.1 Base Year Employment ................................................................................ 19 4.1.1 DETR Address Information & Address Matching ...................................... 19 4.1.2 Category Translation – DETR Industry Code to TDM Employment Category ........................................................................................................................... 21 4.1.3 Post Processes (Headquarter Issue) ......................................................... 21 4.2 Future Year Employment .............................................................................. 22 5 QUALITY CONTROL AND VALIDATION OF DEVELOPMED PLANNING VARIABLES (POPULATION & EMPLOYMENT) .......................................................... 24 6. SPECIAL GENERATORS .................................................................................. 24 7. SCHOOL ENROLLMENT ................................................................................... 25 8. CONCLUSION .................................................................................................... 26 9 ATTACHMENT1 EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES by PARSONS ........................... 70 10 ATTACHMENT2 EMPLOYMENT EQUIVALENCY TABLE 2019 Planning Variables Page ii Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Planning Variable Data Structure ..................................................................... 10 Table 2 GILIS Land Use Code ...................................................................................... 12 Table 3 Summary of Residential Use and Population for Year 2019 ........................... 13 Table 4 SNRPC/RTC Planned Land Use Categories .................................................... 14 Table 5 Acreage Projected for Development for Year 2020 – Year 2050...................... 14 Table 6 Projected Population Growth by Entity ............................................................. 16 Table 7 Projected Population by Entity.......................................................................... 17 Table 8 Comparison with CBER Control Total .............................................................. 18 Table 9 DETR 2019 2rd Quarter Employer Data ........................................................... 20 Table 10 2019 CSN Employment Data ......................................................................... 21 Table 11 DETR 2019 2rd Quarter Employer Data ( Headquarter Employment ) ........... 22 Table 12 Summary of Address Matched DETR 2019 2rd Quarter Employer Data ........ 22 Table 13 Acreage to Employment Factors .................................................................... 23 Table 14 Employment/Passengers of NAFB, MIA, IIA .................................................. 24 Table 15 UNLV and NSC Employment and Enrollment ................................................ 25 Table 16 CSN Enrollment .............................................................................................. 25 Table 17 Projected Total Employment by Entity ............................................................ 26 2019 Planning Variables Page iii Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada LIST OF MAPS Map 1 -- RTC 1658 Traffic Analysis Zones and Jurisdictions for TDM .......................... 27 Map 2 -- RTC Base Year 2019 Land Use ..................................................................... 28 Map 3 – SNRPC Planned Land Use Growth 2019 - 2020 ............................................. 29 Map 4 – SNRPC Planned Land Use Growth 2020 - 2025 ............................................. 30 Map 5 – SNRPC Planned Land Use Growth 2025 - 2030 ............................................. 31 Map 6 – SNRPC Planned Land Use Growth 2030 - 2035 ............................................. 32 Map 7 – SNRPC Planned Land Use Growth 2035 - 2040 ............................................. 33 Map 8 – SNRPC Planned Land Use Growth 2040 - 2045 ............................................. 34 Map 9 – SNRPC Planned Land Use Growth 2045 - 2050 ............................................. 35 Map 10 -- 2019 Population in Traffic Analysis Zones .................................................... 36 Map 11 – 2019-2020 Population Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones ............................... 37 Map 12 -- 2020-2025 Population Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones .............................. 38 Map 13 -- 2025-2030 Population Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones .............................. 39 Map 14 -- 2030-2035 Population Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones ............................. 40 Map 15 -- 2035-2040 Population Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones ............................. 41 Map 16 -- 2040-2045 Population Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones ............................. 42 Map 17 -- 2045-2050 Population Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones ............................. 43 Map 18 -- 2019-2050 Total Population Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones ..................... 44 Map 19 -- 2019 Population Density (Pop/Ac) in Traffic Analysis Zones ........................ 45 Map 20 -- 2020 Population Density (Pop/Ac) in Traffic Analysis Zones ........................ 46 Map 21 -- 2025 Population Density (Pop/Ac) in Traffic Analysis Zones ........................ 47 Map 22 -- 2030 Population Density (Pop/Ac) in Traffic Analysis Zones ........................ 48 Map 23 -- 2035 Population Density (Pop/Ac) in Traffic Analysis Zones ........................ 49 Map 24 -- 2040 Population Density (Pop/Ac) in Traffic Analysis Zones .... .................. 50 Map 25 -- 2045 Population Density (Pop/Ac) in Traffic Analysis Zones .... .................. 51 Map 26 -- 2050 Population Density (Pop/Ac) in Traffic Analysis Zones .... .................. 52 Map 27 -- 2019 Employment in Traffic Analysis Zones ................................................. 53 Map 28 – 2019-2020 Employment Growth in Traffic Analysis Zones ............................ 54 Map 29 -- 2020-2025 Employment Growth in