Conflict Assessment of the Republic of Yemen June 2015 Conflict Assessment of the Republic of Yemen, June, 2015 1 Acknowledgements Alma Abdul Hadi Jadallah, Ph.D, produced this report for the United Nations Country Team (UNCT) in Yemen. The findings, insights and recommendations included in the report are a result of in-depth interviews, and focus group discussions with a diversity of interlocutors including, but limited to: Yemeni’s residing inside and outside of Yemen, members of Yemeni civil society organizations, non-governmental organizations, and the United Nations. I would like to extend my thanks to my Yemeni colleagues inside and outside of Yemen who have been very generous with their inputs and have provided insights at a very difficult time in their nation’s history, and the UNCT colleagues for making available all resources within their control to support access to information and data in support of the drafting of the report, in particular, Mr. Zarak Jan, Mr. Edward Christow, Ms. Malin Herwig, and Mr. Jos.de la.Haye. Last and not least, I would like to thank Kwaw G. de Graft Johnson and Leslie Archambeault for supporting the research for this study. The findings in this study are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the United Nations or of individual UN (United Nations) agencies. About the Author Dr. Abdul Hadi Jadallah is the President and Managing Director of Kommon Denominator, Inc. (www.kommondenominator.Inc). In that capacity, she has advised and provided technical expertise on strategic projects relating to conflict prevention and mitigation, reconciliation and peace-building, training and education, and capacity building, political process design, and gender mainstreaming on national and international levels. Her client list includes the United Nations (UN), Fortune 500 companies, governments and not for profit organizations. She recently completed a ten- month assignment with the UN Security Council where she served as the Acting Coordinator and Regional Expert for the Panel of Experts on Yemen, established pursuant to the Security Council resolution 2140 (2014). Prior to this post, she worked with the UN Special Advisor to the Secretary General to Yemen as an expert consultant to the National Dialogue Conference, and with UN Women as a Political Process consultant on the Syrian Women’s Initiative to Geneva II talks. Dr. Abdul Hadi-Jadallah earned her Ph.D. from the Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University (now the School for Conflict Analysis and Resolution (S-CAR)). She teaches graduate level courses on conflict resolution theory and practice, cross cultural issues and protracted conflicts in lead academic institutions in the US and around the world. She has participated in a number of global conferences on conflict resolution, and has been a speaker and participant at various national and international forums and media outlets. Her writings focused on inclusive peace processes, the role of culture on conflict resolution processes, and leadership. She is a member of the Board of Reference at Eastern Mennonite University, a member of the American Friends Service Committee International Programs, and an Advisory Board member (former President) for Northern Virginia Mediation Services. She can be reached at [email protected] Conflict Assessment of the Republic of Yemen, June, 2015 2 Acronyms & Abbreviations AQAP al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula CDA Conflict and Development Analysis DPA Department of Political Affairs GCC Gulf Cooperation Council GPC General People’s Congress IDP Internally Displaced Person IS Islamic State JMP Joint Meeting Parties NDC National Dialogue Conference OECD The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development PNPA Peace and National Partnership Agreement SASG Special Advisor to the Secretary General UN United Nations UNCT United Nations Country Team UNHCT United Nations Humanitarian Country Team UNDP United Nations Development Program WFP World Food Program WHO World Health Organization Conflict Assessment of the Republic of Yemen, June, 2015 3 Table of Contents 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................................................. 7 1.1 PURPOSE OF THE STUDY ............................................................................................................................................... 9 1.2 METHODOLOGY AND APPROACH .............................................................................................................................. 9 1.3 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY ..................................................................................................................................... 10 2 CONTEXTUAL OVERVIEW (SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS) .......................................................... 11 2.1 BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................................................... 11 2.2 NATIONAL DIALOGUE CONFERENCE...................................................................................................................... 12 2.3 CURRENT SITUATION .................................................................................................................................................. 15 3 THE CONFLICT IN YEMEN: FACTORS AND ROOT CAUSES ................................................. 19 3.1 ROOT/STRUCTURAL FACTORS .................................................................................................................................. 20 3.1.1 Human Rights Violations, Rule of Law, and a Culture of Impunity ............................................... 20 3.1.2 Pervasive Structural Gender Inequality................................................................................................... 21 3.1.3 Disputes over Legitimate Ownership of Land ........................................................................................ 22 3.1.4 Governance and Political Institutions ...................................................................................................... 22 3.1.5 Divided Army and Security Apparatus ..................................................................................................... 22 3.1.6 Economic inequality and access to wealth .............................................................................................. 23 3.1.7 Lack of access to and availability of services ........................................................................................ 24 3.1.8 Southerners Call for Independence ........................................................................................................... 25 3.1.9 The Neglect of the North: Sa’dah ............................................................................................................... 25 3.2 INTERMEDIATE/PROXIMATE FACTORS .................................................................................................................. 26 3.2.1 Humanitarian Crisis ....................................................................................................................................... 26 3.2.2 Refugees, IDPs, Migrants, and Host Communities .............................................................................. 28 3.2.3 Impact of the Conflict on Children ............................................................................................................ 30 3.2.4 Impact of the Conflict on Women ............................................................................................................... 32 3.2.5 Livelihoods ......................................................................................................................................................... 33 3.2.6 Competition over resources.......................................................................................................................... 34 3.3 TRIGGER FACTORS ....................................................................................................................................................... 34 4 STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................... 36 4.1 LOCAL LEVEL STAKEHOLDERS ................................................................................................................................ 37 4.1.1 Local committees and community based armed militia and leadership ....................................... 37 4.2 GOVERNORATE LEVEL STAKEHOLDERS ............................................................................................................... 37 4.2.1 The South: al-Hirak Movement ................................................................................................................... 37 4.3 NATIONAL LEVEL STAKEHOLDERS ......................................................................................................................... 38 4.3.1 The Houthi Movement .................................................................................................................................... 38 4.3.2 President Hadi’s Emergency Government in Exile.............................................................................. 40 4.3.3 Ali Abdullah Saleh ........................................................................................................................................... 41 4.3.4 Former