1 Sponsors | Commanditaires Gold Sponsors | Commanditaires d’or Silver Sponsors | Commanditaires d’argent Other Sponsors | Les autres Commanditaires 2 Contents Sponsors | Commanditaires .......................................................................................................................... 2 Welcome from the Premier of Ontario .......................................................................................................... 5 Bienvenue du premier ministre de l'Ontario .................................................................................................. 6 Welcome from the Mayor of Toronto ............................................................................................................ 7 Mot de bienvenue du maire de Toronto ........................................................................................................ 8 Welcome from the Minister of Fisheries, Oceans and the Canadian Coast Guard ...................................... 9 Mot de bienvenue de ministre des Pêches, des Océans et de la Garde côtière canadienne .................... 10 Welcome from the Minister of Environment and Climate Change .............................................................. 11 Mot de bienvenue du Ministre d’Environnement et Changement climatique Canada ................................ 12 Welcome from the President of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society ...................... 13 Mot de bienvenue du président de la Société canadienne de météorologie et d’océanographie .............. 14 Welcome Message from the Scientific Program Committee ...................................................................... 16 Mot de bienvenue du Comité du programme scientifique .......................................................................... 17 Welcome Message from the Local Arrangements Committee ................................................................... 18 Mot de bienvenue du Comité local des préparatifs ..................................................................................... 19 Local Arrangements Committee | Comité des arrangements locaux ......................................................... 20 Scientific Program Committee | Comité du programme scientifique .......................................................... 21 Volunteers | Bénévoles ............................................................................................................................... 21 Week at a Glance | La semaine en coup d'oeil ........................................................................................... 23 Social Events .............................................................................................................................................. 24 Activités sociaux .......................................................................................................................................... 26 Exhibitors List | Liste des exposants ........................................................................................................... 28 Exhibitor Layout | Plan des exposants ........................................................................................................ 29 Public Lecture | Lecture publique ................................................................................................................ 30 Plenaries ..................................................................................................................................................... 32 Plénières ..................................................................................................................................................... 41 Guidelines for Presenters ............................................................................................................................ 52 Instructions pour les présentateurs ............................................................................................................. 53 Session Schedule ....................................................................................................................................... 56 Horaire des sessions ................................................................................................................................... 60 Presentation Schedule | Horaire des presentations.................................................................................... 64 Poster Session 1, June 5 16:00-17:30 Session d'affiches 1, 5 juin 16h00-17h30 ...................................... 98 Poster Session 2, June 6 15:00-17:00 Session d'affiches 2, 6 juin 15h00-17h00 .................................... 103 Abstract Book | Recueil des résumés .......................................................................................... abstracts 1 3 Editors | Éditeurs – Jason Cole, Michael Waite, Marek Stastna ISBN 978-0-9880587-5-0 4 Welcome from the Premier of Ontario 5 Bienvenue du premier ministre de l'Ontario 6 Welcome from the Mayor of Toronto C I T Y O F TORONTO Message from the Mayor It gives me great pleasure to extend greetings and a warm welcome to everyone attending the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society's 51st annual CMOS Scientific Congress. As Canada's largest city and the fourth largest in North America, Toronto is a global centre for business, finance, arts and culture and is dedicated to being a model of sustainable development. I welcome everyone to our city and encourage you to enjoy Toronto at this time of year and learn about our vibrant neighbourhoods. On behalf of Toronto City Council, please accept my best wishes for an informative and enjoyable event. Yours truly, John Tory Mayor of Toronto OFFICE OF THE MAYOR 100 QUEEN STREET WEST, TORONTO, ONTARIO MSH 2N2 7 Mot de bienvenue du maire de Toronto 8 Welcome from the Minister of Fisheries, Oceans and the Canadian Coast Guard 9 Mot de bienvenue de ministre des Pêches, des Océans et de la Garde côtière canadienne 10 Welcome from the Minister of Environment and Climate Change 11 Mot de bienvenue du Ministre d’Environnement et Changement climatique Canada 12 Welcome from the President of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society On behalf of the Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society (CMOS), I welcome you to our 51th Congress in Toronto, Canada. CMOS has a long and distinguished history of advancing meteorology and oceanography in Canada. Our scientific congresses attract attendees from academia, government and the private sector from cross Canada and around the world. Welcome back and welcome aboard. We are looking at enhancing the Congress this year with a downloadable App to promote communication and ease of access to Congress information. This will allow Congress participants to be active with their programs and activities. With the help of the App, I also encourage all delegates to make good use of their time this week, and take advantage of all the great science and social programs that have been established by the congress organizers. This year to coincide with the 50th Anniversary of CMOS, student membership to CMOS was opened up as a FREE membership. Already we have seen student membership double since this has come into effect last year. I believe this is strategically important for the sustainability of our Society. Welcome and thank you Canadian Students!!. To those who are not currently members, we urge you to become members of YOUR society and strengthen it by participating in its activities during and after the Congress. I am making a strong pitch to all members to attend the Annual General Meeting (AGM) on Monday evening, where plans for the upcoming year and society issues will be discussed, including a discussion on the newly drafted Strategic Plan for CMOS and its future. I cannot express my pride of the CMOS organisation. This national organization is largely run by volunteers, with truly amazing dedication and commitment. From the 14 centres across Canada to the national Executive in Ottawa who keep the boat afloat every year to ensure growth, sustainability and a prosperous future. I have been interfacing with the Chair of the Local Arrangements Committee, Ron Bianchi and the Chair of the Science Program Committee, Dr. Peter Taylor, whom over the past 18 months have encountered numerous obstacles in the preparation and execution of this Congress, supported by many hours of work by local volunteers. We are off to the races and this congress promises to be one of the most successful as a result of the hard work of all the volunteers. This event would not be possible without them. Bravo Zulu to all. Thank you for your ongoing support of CMOS. I wish you a productive and enjoyable congress! Martin L. Taillefer President, CMOS 13 Mot de bienvenue du président de la Société canadienne de météorologie et d’océanographie Au nom de la Société canadienne de météorologie et d’océanographie (SCMO), je vous souhaite la bienvenue à notre 51e Congrès, à Toronto (Canada). La SCMO possède une longue et remarquable histoire liée à l’avancement de la météorologie et de l’océanographie au Canada. Nos congrès scientifiques attirent des participants des secteurs universitaire, gouvernemental et privé provenant de partout au Canada et d’ailleurs. Bienvenue aux nouveaux comme aux vétérans. Nous comptons améliorer le Congrès cette année à l’aide d’une application téléchargeable qui facilitera la communication et l’accès aux renseignements relatifs à cet événement. Cette nouveauté permettra aux