United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairsiao Division for Sustainable Development Sustainable Development Scenarios for Rio+20 A Component of the SD21 project Final version, February 2013 - 1 - Acknowledgements : This study was drafted by Richard Alexander Roehrl (UN DESA), based on inputs, ideas scenario work, and suggestions from a team experts, including Keywan Riahi, Detlef Van Vuuren, Keigo Akimoto, Robertus Dellink, Magnus Andersson, Morgan Bazilian, Enrica De Cian, Bill Cosgove, Bert De Vries, Guenther Fischer, Dolf Gielen, David le Blanc, Arnulf Gruebler, Stephane Hallegatte, Charlie Heaps, Molly Hellmuth, Mark Howells, Kejun Jiang, Marcel Kok, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, John Latham, Paul Lucas, Wolfgang Lutz, David McCollum, Reinhard Mechler, Shunsuke Mori, Siwa Msangi, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Noémi Nemes, Mans Nilsson, Michael Obersteiner, Shonali Pachauri, Frederik Pischke, Armon Rezai, Holger Rogner, Lars Schnelzer, Priyadarshi Shukla, Massimo Tavoni, Ferenc Toth, Bob Van der Zwaan, Zbigniew Klimont, Mark Rosegrant, Oyvind Vessia, Maryse Labriet, Amit Kanudia and Richard Loulou. The author is especially grateful to David le Blanc (UN DESA) for his ideas, inputs and encouragement. We are grateful for the contributions of staff of universities (Tokyo University of Science, Yale University, Graz University, Columbia University, Wageningen University, KTH, University of Vienna, WU Vienna, Lund University, Utrecht University, and John Hopkins University); think-tanks (PBL, IIASA, WWAP, ERI, CIRED, TERI, IFPRI, FEEM, DIE, RITE, SEI Sweden and North America, ECN, and PIK); international organizations (UN-DESA. UNIDO. IAEA, FAO, WB, OECD, EC, and IRENA); and of the academies of sciences of Austria, the USA, and the Russian Federation. Feedback: Your feedback is most welcome: [email protected] . Disclaimer: This publication was produced with the assistance of the European Union. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union. Similarly, the views expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the United Nations or its senior management. Suggested citation: Roehrl, R.A. (2012). Sustainable development scenarios for Rio+20. A Component of the Sustainable Development in the 21st Century (SD21) project. New York: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Division for Sustainable Development. - 2 - Sustainable development scenarios for Rio+20 Contents 1. Introduction................................................................................................................................................7 1.1. From Rio to Rio+20 ................................................................................................................................7 1.2. Objectives, scope, and target group of the study.....................................................................................8 1.3. Outline.....................................................................................................................................................9 2. Methodology, terminology and process...................................................................................................11 2.1. What are scenarios?...............................................................................................................................11 2.2. What are global scenario models?.........................................................................................................12 2.3. Overall nature of the report...................................................................................................................12 2.4. Methodology .........................................................................................................................................13 2.5. SD21 scenario process and outputs.......................................................................................................15 3. Forty years of sustainable development scenarios and integrated assessment models ............................20 3.1. Landscape of global scenario models, 1970 to 2012 ............................................................................20 3.2. Global scenarios and projections ..........................................................................................................23 3.3. Note on progress in global scenario modelling.....................................................................................28 3.4. Potential ways forward..........................................................................................................................30 4. Sustainable development scenarios for Rio+20 – some highlights..........................................................31 4.1. IIASA’s global energy assessment (GEA) scenarios for Rio+20 .........................................................31 4.2. PBL’s sustainable development scenarios for Rio+20..........................................................................37 4.3. RITE’s ALPS scenarios for Rio+20......................................................................................................49 4.4. OECD’s green growth scenarios - Environmental Outlook for 2050 ...................................................55 4.5. SEI scenarios for Rio+20 ......................................................................................................................60 4.6. FEEM’s goals and targets assessed with the WITCH model................................................................64 4.7. IASA Ukraine’s Global Sustainable Development Simulation ............................................................66 4.8. Tellus’ great transitions scenario for Rio+20 (Global Scenario Group update 2010)...........................67 4.9. Rander’s forecast for 2052....................................................................................................................69 4.10. Reviews of sustainable development scenarios for Rio+20” WBCSD, WWF, WEF, and UNEP......72 5. Reflections on the strengths and weaknesses of the Rio+20 sustainable development scenarios ...........73 5.1. Level of ambition: no paradise vision and limited scope of goals ........................................................73 5.2. Trade-offs and synergies.......................................................................................................................73 5.3. Level of agreement on policy solutions ................................................................................................78 6. Narratives of the future – pathways to a better world in 2050.................................................................82 6.1. Where we come from – sustainable development progress from 1950 to 2010 ...................................82 6.2. If we continue like in the past: a “dynamics-as-usual scenario”, 2010-2050........................................90 6.3. A better world we can achieve: a sustainable development scenario, 2010 to 2050.............................93 6.4. The most likely world in 2050? A prediction for the world in 2052...................................................100 7. Scenario analysts, scientists and policy makers – making a good team?...............................................102 7.1. The science-policy interface and its historical context .......................................................................102 7.2. The ultimate objective - sustainable development? (Level 1).............................................................103 7.3. Visions - what to sustain and develop? (Level 2) ...............................................................................109 7.4. Goals and strategies – sustainable development goals? (Level 3) ......................................................112 7.5. Policies and action plans – for sustainable development? (Level 4)...................................................128 7.6. Implementation – project assessment and investment for sustainable development? (Level 5).........128 7.7. Summary of agreement on the five levels...........................................................................................128 8. Issues for consideration..........................................................................................................................130 8.1. Which world do we really want for ourselves and our children?........................................................130 - 3 - 8.2. Filling the cupboard with lessons learned...........................................................................................133 8.3. Potential way forward .........................................................................................................................134 References ......................................................................................................................................................135 9. Annex: SD21 “storylines”......................................................................................................................144 9.1. Business-as-usual world (“Growth first”)...........................................................................................144 9.2. Dynamics-as-usual scenario (“Keep it up!”).......................................................................................145 9.3. Catch-up scenario (“Growth first with