The Hawis Poll For releaae: Monday AM, January 18, 1988 1988 #5 ISSN 0895-7983 A'IONG ALL VOTERS, HART LOSES TO BUSH BY 18 POINTS, TO DOLE BY 22 POINTS By Louis Harris Although he leads among Democrats as their choice for their presidential nomination, Gary Hart runs far behind both Vice President George Bush and Senator Bob Dole in pairings taken by the Harris Poll among a cross-section of 1,101 tightly screened likely voters nationwide between January 7th and llth, by telephone. In sharp contrast, when the very same voters are asked whom they would vote for when given a choice of an unnamed Democrat and an unnamed Republican, the GOP wins by only the barest of two points, 48-46 percent. Bush runs ahead of Hart by 56-38 percent, while Dole leads him by a more sizable 59-37 percent. This gap of between 18 and 22 points in Hart's showing below that of his party raises the serious question of his ever becoming a viable candidate in 1988, even if he were to win the Democratic nomination. Hart is equally as well known as either Bush or Dole. He has the advantage of voter familiarity with what he stands for, but also the disadvantage of voter familiarity with his negatives. The implication of the results is that in a straight-out Republican-Democratic L contest for president, the voters are focusing in on the Republican record over the past 8 years. On this score, the division in the country is very close, indeed, and that would suggest a tight election next November. But, when Gary Hart is the Democratic candidate, then the vote appears to divide on a pro and anti-Hart basis. In other words, Hart, not the Republican record becomes the issue. Revealing are the differences among pivotal groups of voters between the Hart showing against Bush and Dole and the straight-out party pairings for the presidency that don't take into account any specific candidate. Here are the major groups among whom the Democrats hold out the promise of doing quite well, but where Hart does poorly: -- On a regional basis, the biggest gaps between Hart and the Democrats is in the East, where the former Colorado Senator loses to both Bush and Dole by an identical 61-35 percent margin, compared with a close 47-46 percent plurality for the GOP when just each party's "nameless" candidates are the choice. Thus, Hart runs a full 12 points weaker than the Democratic norm.In the Midwest, Hart loses to Bush by a closer 52-40 percent and to Dole by 54-43 percent. However, the Democrats lead the Republicans in this region on a party choice for president basis. This puts Hart 8 points behind the mark against Dole and 11 behind against Dole. -- In big cities, Hart runs a full 20 points behind the Democratic norm against Dole and 15 points behind against Bush. -- By age, Hart is weakest among those elderly voters 65 and over, where he runs 12 points behlnd the Democratic mark against Bush and 13 points behind against Dole. -- By education, Hart's weakness is obvious among the best educated voters -- those who have either a four year college degree or a postgraduate degree. Among the college eaucateri, Hart receives oniy 33 percenc or' the vote, QGihp&i& wit;, a iicuiii~st- Democrat who gets 35 percent, adding up to a gap of 15 points for the Coloradan. Among those with a graduate degree, Hart receives only 25 percent against Dole and a somewhat higher 34 percent against Bush. However, in the party pairing for president, the Democrat trails the Republican by only a narrow 49-46 percent. Thus, against Dole, Hart runs a L sizable 21 points off the mark and against Bush a lesser but still significant 12 points behind the Democratic Party showing. ( over 1 THE HARRIS POLL January 18, 1988 I t -- Perhaps the most significant result is by sex. Among men, the nameless Republican wins by 52-43 percent. Gary Hart also loses by a wider 60-38 percent against Dole and by 59-37 percent against Bush. Thus, Hart's gap among men against Dole is 5 points and against Bush 6 points, not a great deal. In the case of women, it is quite another story. On a party basis for president, the Democrats win among women by 50-44 percent, an indication that the gender gap is once again working on behalf of the Democrats in 1988. However, when Hart is the Democratic standard-bearer, he loses to Bush by 54-39 percent among women and to Dole by a more sizable 59-37 percent. Thus, the gap for Hart among women when pitted against Dole is 13 points and when he runs against Bush it is 11 points. In short, Hart blows the gender gap advantage for the Democrats by his relatively weak showing among women. -- By occupation, the Democrats hold a significant 51-46 percent preference lead over the Republicans among professional voters. By sharp contrast, Hart lost among professionals to Dole by 66-30 percent and to Bush by 64-33 percent. This put the Hart gap among professionals at 21 points against Dole and at 18 points against Bush. Among business executives, the Hart gap is 20 points when he runs against Dole and 11 points against Bush. -- Among union members, Hart's gap is 11 points against Dole and 12 points against Bush. -- By party, Hart is damaged the most among his own Democratic party base. While when no specific candidate is mentioned, the Democrats finish ahead among their own party's rank-and-file by 81-15 percent. Hart runs ahead of Dole among Democrats by only 54-42 percent and ahead of Bush by a wider 61-32 percent. Thus, Hart has a gap against Dole among Democrats of 27 points and against Bush of 20 points. - - Finally, by political philosophy, Hart's gaps are largest among moderates, among whom he runs a deficit of 14 points against Dole and 13 points against Bush, compared with the showing of a nameless Democrat. These facts point up the news that Hart's basic weakness is right within the Democratic Party. Fully one in every five Democrats say they won't vote for him if he is nominated. The fact that they mean it is proven by these very same Democratic voters not d casting their votes for Hart in the trial heats. TABLES Between January 7th and llth, the Harris Poll asked a nationwide cross section of 1,101 voters by telephone: "In the 1988 residential election, if you had to say right nw. would you vote for the Democratic candidate, or the Repubilcan candidate?" PREFERENCE FOR DEMOCRATIC OR REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT Democrat Republican ohter Party (vol.) Not sure % % % % TOTAL East Midwest South West Cities Suburbs Towns-rural Age 18-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65 and over (continued) January 18, 1988 THE HARRIS POLL - 3- *. L PREFERENCE FOR DEMOCRATIC OR REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE FOR PRESIDENT (cont'd) Democrat Republican Ohter Party (vol.) Not sure % % % % Less than high school High school graduate Some college College graduate Postgraduate Men Women Professional Executive Proprietor Skilled labor Unskilled labor White collar Union household Nonunion household Republican Democrat Independent Conservative Moderate Liberal "Now suppose for president in 1988, it will be Vice President George Bush for the Republicans and former Senator Gary Hart for the Democrats. If you had to choose, would you be for Bush or for Hart?" PREFERENCE FOR BUSH OR HART FOR PRESIDENT -Bush -Hart Notsure % % % TOTAL East Midwest south West Cities Suburbs Towns-rural Age 18-24 25-29 ' 30-39 40-49 50-64 65 and over Less than high school High school graduate Some college College graduate Postgraduate Men Women L (over) THE HARRIS POLL January 18, 1988 . i PREFERENCE FOR BUSH OR HART FOR PRESIDENT (cont'd) Bush art ~otsure % % % Professional Executive Proprietor skilled labor Unskilled labor White collar Union household Nonunion household Republican Democrat Independent Conservative Moderate Liberal "Now suppose in 1988 for president, it will be Senator Bob Dole for the Republicans and former Senator Gary Hart for the Democrats. If you had to choose, would you be for Dole or for Hart?" PREFERENCE FOR DOLE OR HART FOR PRESIDENT -Dole -Hart Not sure % % % TOTAL East Midwest south West Cities Suburbs Towns-rural Age 18-24 25-29 30-39 40-49 50-64 65 and over Less than high school High school graduate Some college College graduate Postgraduate Men Women Professional Executive Proprietor Skilled labor Unskilled labor White collar Union household Nonunion household (continued) @ I THE HARRIS POLL January 18, 1988 b PREFERENCE FOR DOLE OR HART FOR PRESIDENT (cont'd) Hart ~otsure % % Republican Democrat Independent Conservative Moderate Liberal * = less than 0.5 percent - = no response METHODOLOGY This Harris Poll was conducted by telephone within the United States between January 7th and llth, among a cross section of 1,101 adults nationwide. Figures for age, sex, race and education were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. In a sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results have a statistical precision of plus or minus three percentage points of what they would be if the entire adult population had been polled. This statement conforms to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. (c) 1988 Creators Syndicate, Inc. 1554 South Sepulveda Blvd.