N°75 - April 10 2008 Published every two weeks / International Edition CONTENTS DIPLOMACY P. 1-3 Politics & Government c Some grist for the mill between Moscow and Washington DIPLOMACY c Some grist for the mill The farewell meeting between George Bush and Vladimir Putin in Sochi, just after the NATO sum- between Moscow and mit in Bucharest, confirmed what we had already noticed on several occasions in the past : the two men Washington never really understood each other. Although they deny it, they are both “products” of the cold war.Their BEHIND THE SCENE two Foreign ministers, Condi Rice and Sergey Lavrov, are also both derived products and the very sub- c Toward a Pax russica in jects raised in Sochi – NATO, anti-missile systems – would not have been out of place in one of the good Transnistria old US-Soviet summits from the 1970s or 1980s. “It was a remarkable relationship” George Bush felt ap- FOCUS propriate to conclude, remarkable in fact since it leaves the United States and Russia at a sort of “square c Putin puts a marker on Medvedev one” after the feverish hugs of the 1990s and the aborted grand designs of the 2001-2003 period. ENERGY c TNK-BP : Moscow blows In a few days, Dmitry Medvedev will establish himself in the Kremlin and will become the new inter- hot and cold locutor for George Bush until next January. There is little chance that significant changes will take place ALERT by then. Then in January, it will be the unknown for Russian diplomacy, with the only certainty being at c Suez /Gaz de France this stage : that none of the three candidates for the presidency of the United States has been seen as being particularly amicable toward Russia, with Senator McCain appearing the most outspoken since he P. 4-8 Business & Networks has called for a withdrawal of Russia from the G8. INDUSTRY c Abyzov, the rising star of the This does not necessarily mean that everything is frozen on all the most sensitive issues that will reap- Russian electricity sector pear with the new American administation. Concerning the enlargement of NATO and the delay in the ALERTS inclusion of Georgia and Ukraine in the “Membership Action Plan”, Russia earned a precious point. The c Voloshin / Inter RAO most moderate reaction by Moscow to the proclamation of independence by Kosovo was probaly worth PROFILE c Skorobogatko and a type of recognition on the part of a certain number of European member countries of the Alliance. But Ponomarenko, the strong Russian diplomacy is not the only one to have been able to claim the credit for the rejection of the Geor- men on the port of gian and Ukrainian candidacy. Even in the United States, and more so in Europe, there exist some doubts Novorossiysk on the interests that NATO can have to recruit those two countries. During a seminar co-organised by the ALERTS Brookings Institution in Tbilisi the day after the Bucharest summit, certain American experts, reputed c Nord Stream / Mechel close to the two democratic candidates for the nomination, questioned the justification for Georgia’s in- FOCUS tegration. As for Ukraine, it is known that the consensus on the subject even within the population does c Norilsk : Oleg Deripaska under pressure not exist, and it can be guessed by the recent statements from Vladimir Putin (provocation or awkward- TELECOM ness?) suggesting a possible partition of the country and a return of the Russian territories to the “mo- c Altimo pursues its competi- therland”, that the case of Ukraine is probably the most sensitive of all for Moscow. tion with Telenor and aims at the Turkish market Concerning the anti-missile systems to be deployed in Poland and the Czech Republic, the situation ALERTS is clearer. Several former Clinton administration officials close to Hillary, such as Richard Holbrooke, c c Kamaz Chigirinsky or General Wesley Clark, cast into doubt privately the utility of this initiative by the Bush administration FOCUS c Behind the Atomenergo- which set fire to the powder in the Kremlin. In case of a victory for Senators Clinton or Obama, a nego- prom / Toshiba accord tiating space would open on this question. SHIPBUILDING FLK on a spree in Ukraine In fact, it was on Afghanistan that American and Russian positions drew the closest together in re- and in Germany cent weeks. The fact that Russia accepted the transit on its territory of “non-military” products and equip- ment from NATO countries toward Afghanistan is not anodyne. The establishment of a “corridor” bet- SUBSCRIPTION Print Edition ween Europe and the Afghan territory, by Russia and Uzbekistan and the construction of the railway (23 issues, airmailed overseas) bridge over the Amu Daria will facilitate the transfer of equipment and materiel toward Afghan cities e770 TTC and would especially make them less expensive. By helping NATO in Afghanistan, Russia is helping itself The Web Pack in combatting religious fundamentalism in Central Asia and the Caucasus. Even if the support is provi- (Print Edition ded without excessive enthusiasm on the part of Moscow, it is a sign addressed in the direction of the + PDF + archives acess) member countries of the Alliance so that they do not weaken their efforts to re-establish peace in Afgha- e 880 TTC nistan. In counterpart, Russia could assist in a more convincing way with the negotiation with Iran on The Premium its uranium enrichment programme, which even in the United States, some feel would be very desirable. Subscription (Print Edition + PDF + access Even if Bush and Putin separated in aknowledging failure, their successors will nevertheless dispose to all the website contents) of an essential resource for negotiation and diplomacy : some grist for the mill...d e 1200 TTC www.russia-intelligence.fr RUSSIA INTELLIGENCE Politics & Government BEHIND THE SCENE cc FOCUS Toward a Pax russica Putin puts a marker on Medvedev in Transnistria A slightly better picture is emerging about the political sequence for the coming As Russia Intelligence had let it be un- weeks in Moscow. As Russia Intelligence explained in its previous edition, the first derstood in its edition of January 31, the sit- major episode will be the convention of United Russia, brought forward to April 14 uation around the “frozen conflict” in and 15 (instead of the 19th of May as originally planned). Vladimir Putin should be Transnistria is on the way toward some offered the party presidency. This was confirmed April 7 by Boris Gryzlov, the cur- movement. On April 7, the President of rent officeholder of the State Duma presidency. He also added — in the most se- Moldova, Vladimir Voronin, and the head rious manner possible — that the “ideal” would be for Vladimir Putin to accept. The of he secessionist province, Igor Smirnov, takeover of United Russia should allow the future Prime minister to better control held a telephone conversation. It repre- deputies, governors and, more generally, the senior bureaucracy, always efficient in sented an event in itself since the two men adjusting to changes in the balance of power in Moscow. Vladimir Putin is progres- had not spoken since 2001. According to a sing toward a “double lock” system perfectly in tune with KGB norms. communiqué published by the authorities in Tiraspol, they should even meet in a short The second phase of this political sequencing to come will be the investiture of delay.This possibility of a conclusion to the Vladimir Putin to the office of head of government. It will take place May 8, the day lengthy crisis has been made possible by after the assumption of office by Dmitry Medvedev to the Kremlin. Contrary to tra- the closer relations between Chisinau and dition, the vote of the State Duma will take place without prior consultation. It will Moscow. It must be remembered that the not have been only for pure form, but this acceleration of the calendar displays a last-minute rejection by Vladimir Voronin of certain nervousness on the part of a segment of Vladimir Putin’s inner circle. Not the “Kozak Plan”, at the end of November to leave Dmitry Medvedev alone in power even for 24 hours — above all before the 2003, and the introduction of new border Victory day celebration May 9, which should have a particular aura this year since controls toward Transdnistr — with the sup- the tanks will once again roll on Red Square — was apparently absolutely impera- port of Ukraine — in March 2006, put a chill tive. on Russo-Moldovan relations. Things changed after the Poutine-Voronin meeting In anticipation, the war of the clans continues unabated in the structures of po- on June 27 2007. The embargo decreed by wer. The most spectacular developments emerged from the General prosecutor’s of- Moscow on Moldovan agricultural products fice, the theatre, since last summer, of constant tension between Yuri Chaika and (especially wine) was lifted in exchange for his deputy, Alexandre Bastyrkin, an old companion of Vladimir Putin named at political guarantees whose scope can now the head of the Investigating committee who distinguished himself since then es- be evaluated. At the same time, Moscow fo- pecially by playing an active role in the Bulbov and Storchak affairs (Russia Intel- cused the pressure on Igor Smirnov and ligence n°63 of october 11 2007 and n°64 of october 25 2007). Put forward by Igor favoured the emergence of a new pole of Sechin and Nikolay Patrushev, Alexandre Bastyrkin had hoped to take control of influence around the young president of the a possible Russian “FBI”. The choice of Dmitry Medvedev as Vladimir Putin’s suc- local parliament, Yevgeny Shevchuk (Rus- cessor in the Kremlin has, however, compromised his chances.