www.vtpi.org [email protected] 250-360-1560 Evaluating Public Transit Criticism Systematic Analysis of Political Attacks on High Quality Transit, and How Transportation Professionals Can Effectively Respond 27 November 2018 Todd Litman Victoria Transport Policy Institute Abstract High quality public transit, such as urban rail and Bus Rapid Transit, and Transit Oriented Development (TOD), can provide many benefits, including direct benefits to users and indirect benefits to other members of society. There is evidence of growing consumer demand for these options. As a result, many communities are investing significant resources to improve transit services and encourage TOD. A small but vocal group of critics attack these efforts. Critics argue that transit service improvements attract few riders, provide few benefits, are not cost effective, are unfair to low-income residents and motorists, and will soon be replaced by self-driving cars. This report systematically evaluates these claims. Many of the critics’ arguments are based on inaccurate, incomplete or biased information. This report describes appropriate responses to inaccurate criticisms. This should be of interest to transportation professionals, public transit advocates, and anybody interested in determining optimal investments in transit service improvements and TOD. A shorter version of this report was published as: “Evaluating Rail Transit Benefits: A Comment,” Transport Policy, Vol. 14, No. 1 (www.elsevier.com/locate/tranpol), January 2007, pp. 94-97. Todd Litman 1997-2018 You are welcome and encouraged to copy, distribute, share and excerpt this document and its ideas, provided the author is given attribution. Please send your corrections, comments and suggestions for improvement. Evaluating Public Transit Criticism Victoria Transport Policy Institute Contents Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ 2 Introduction ..................................................................................................................... 8 Principles for Comprehensive and Fair Analysis .............................................................. 9 Common Criticisms ....................................................................................................... 11 There is Little Demand for Public Transit .................................................................................. 11 Autonomous Taxis will Soon Eliminate Transit Demand .......................................................... 16 Transit Improvements Do Little to Reduce Automobile Travel ................................................. 17 Harms Disadvantaged People .................................................................................................. 18 Basic Bus Transit Is More Cost Effective than Rail or BRT ...................................................... 20 Transit is Subsidized, Automobile Travel is Not ........................................................................ 21 Transit Investments are Unfair to Motorists .............................................................................. 21 Not Cost Effective ...................................................................................................................... 23 Transit Does Not Reduce Traffic Congestion ........................................................................... 26 Transit Benefits Often Ignored By Critics .................................................................................. 30 Transit Benefits Summary ......................................................................................................... 35 Evaluating Specific Critics ............................................................................................. 37 The Great Train Robbery .......................................................................................................... 37 Light Rail Boon or Boondoggle ................................................................................................. 43 The Social Desirability of Urban Rail Transit Systems .............................................................. 46 Washington’s War on Cars and the Suburbs ............................................................................ 47 The Coming Transit Apocalypse ............................................................................................... 55 Great Rail Disasters .................................................................................................................. 57 Point-Counter-Point with O’Toole .............................................................................................. 62 Rail Disasters 2005: The Impact of Rail Transit on Transit Ridership ...................................... 68 A Desire Named Streetcar ........................................................................................................ 72 Commuter Rail's False Promise ................................................................................................ 74 Appropriate Responses to Inaccurate Criticisms ........................................................... 75 Conclusions .................................................................................................................. 77 References .................................................................................................................... 79 1 Evaluating Public Transit Criticism Victoria Transport Policy Institute Executive Summary An efficient and fair transportation system must be diverse to serve diverse demands: walking and cycling for local travel, public transit to provide basic mobility for non-drivers and efficient transport on major urban corridors, and automobile travel when it is truly most cost efficient. One way to increase transportation efficiency and equity is to improve public transit services and create Transit Oriented Development (TOD). This can provide large and diverse benefits, including direct benefits to users and indirect benefits to other community members. This diversity of benefits is both a strength and a weakness. Critics exploit it to create doubt and conflict: they attack urban rail designed to attract drivers, and therefore reduce traffic problems, as being unfair to poor people; they attack bus services designed to provide basic mobility for non-drivers for being slow and ineffective at reducing traffic problems; and they attack Transit Oriented Development for the long time required to transform communities and achieve its ultimate goals. Clever critics assemble facts and examples that support these attacks, and use this to sow division among potential transit allies, for example, pitting anti-poverty advocates against urban rail, creating doubt that transit improvements reduce congestion and emissions, and encouraging urban residents to oppose TOD as a threat to their community. Like sleight-of- hand magicians, they misdirect the audience’s attention from important to irrelevant issues. However, this diversity is also an opportunity. Advocates can apply more comprehensive analysis showing that, although transit is not necessarily the best way to achieve any single goal, it is often very cost effective considering all benefits. Diverse benefits provide an opportunity to build coalitions in support of high quality transit and TOD based on shared goals. Although public transit only serves a small portion of total passenger-travel in most communities, many people can benefit from transit improvements because they or other household members currently use transit, or would use transit if it were more convenient and comfortable, or because they would benefit indirectly from reduced congestion, accident risk, pollution exposure or chauffeuring burdens, as described in the box below. Measuring Transit Demand Transit demand can be measured in different ways which affect the perceived value of transit improvements. Portion of passenger-miles made by transit. This is generally a small amount, and because it ignores leverage effects, represents a lower-bound estimate of vehicle travel reductions. Transit mode share. This is generally moderate, although often much larger on major urban corridors. Portion of people who currently depend on public transit. This is generally a small number which ignores latent demand (additional transit trips if service quality were better). Portion of people who used public transit sometime during a month or year, or would like to use it if service were better. This is generally a large number, often about half of residents. Portion of households with members who currently use transit, at least occasionally, or would if service were better. This is probably a majority of households. Portion of people who could benefit either directly or indirectly from transit improvements, because they or a household member currently uses transit or would use it if service were improved, or because it helps reduce their traffic and parking congestion, accident risk, pollution exposure or chauffeuring burdens. Most community members enjoy at least some of these benefits. 2 Evaluating Public Transit Criticism Victoria Transport Policy Institute There is evidence of growing demand for high quality transit. Although few North Americans want to stop driving completely, surveys indicate that many would prefer to drive less and rely more on alternatives, provided they are convenient, comfortable and integrated. During the last two