Harlow Future Prospects Study >ŝŶŬŝŶŐZĞŐĞŶĞƌĂƟŽŶΘ'ƌŽǁƚŚ HARLOW DISTRICT COUNCIL AUGUST 2013 Harlow Future Prospects Study: Linking Regeneration & Growth Main Report Harlow District Council August 2013 13454/MS/CGJ/MT/ Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners 14 Regent's Wharf All Saints Street London N1 9RL nlpplanning.com This document is formatted for double sided printing. © Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners Ltd 2013. Trading as Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners. All Rights Reserved. Registered Office: 14 Regent's Wharf All Saints Street London N1 9RL All plans within this document produced by NLP are based upon Ordnance Survey mapping with the permission of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office. © Crown Copyright reserved. Licence number AL50684A Harlow Future Prospects Study : Linking Regeneration & Growth Executive Summary Nathaniel Lichfield & Partners (NLP) was appointed to prepare a study examining the relationship between regeneration and growth in Harlow and to assess the town’s prospects under different levels of future development. The study’s main findings are summarised below. Harlow Evolution In the early years of the town’s development (1950s and 1960s), Harlow provided an excellent location for homes and businesses and enjoyed a long period of economic growth with the town being home to large employers in the manufacturing and industrial sectors. The town reached its original target population of around 81,000 people in 1974 but was subsequently followed by a period of stagnation and decline with long term reductions in population and falling levels of employment. This coincided with a period of economic stagnation, increased mobility and demographic changes which had an adverse impact on the town. At its lowest point in 1994, Harlow’s population fell to 73,000 people. Although the town’s population began to grow again in the late 1990s and 2000s (as a result of the development of Church Langley and other development schemes) the town only exceeded its original target population in 2011. Similarly, although the number of jobs in the town has remained reasonably consistent since the 1970s it has fallen substantially in recent years (since 2008) as a result of the 2007/08 financial crisis and subsequent recession. However, this hides a number of structural changes within the town’s economic history. The town’s strength as a manufacturing and industrial base declined throughout the 1970s and 1980s with a number of large employers moving out. This had consequences for the employment prospects of the local population. These jobs were replaced with high skilled jobs in pharmaceuticals, ICT and research and development. However, given the lower skills of the resident population this job growth benefited non-Harlow residents who generally commuted into the town for work. The long term stagnation of both the town’s population and jobs growth (over a 40 year period) coincides with the emergence of a wide range of socio- economic and physical issues now affecting Harlow. These issues include localised deprivation, skills shortages, economic restructuring, areas of poor quality housing, insufficient range of housing, inadequate infrastructure and aging physical environment. There is a well-founded concern that these issues will continue to affect the town without concerted effort to address these. Without intervention Harlow’s long term prospects are considered to be weak, particularly given the position of comparator towns and cities elsewhere. 5343012v2 i Harlow Future Prospects Study : Linking Regeneration & Growth Regeneration and Growth The study concludes that there is a clear link between growth and regeneration outcomes. The development of housing enables greater social mobility and provides labour for local employers, helping businesses to expand which in turn benefits the wider local economy. The delivery of new housing at the right scale can also enable a critical mass to be reached. This means providing a sufficient number of people to sustain services, facilities and employment. Harlow has not achieved the scale it needs to sustain the kind of infrastructure, economy or town centre from which many of its comparator towns benefit. Furthermore, it is evident form recent developments in Harlow that these have delivered jobs, homes, infrastructure investment as well as new facilities for the community. As a result of recent changes in the systems of planning and local government finance, Harlow has the opportunity to make some clear choices about how it might grow in the future and how the benefits of growth might be retained. There is an opportunity for Harlow to deliver regeneration objectives through growth in order to achieve its aspirations for economic and social prosperity, which would reflect the objectives in the Council’s Corporate Plan. Harlow Future Prospects The future prospects for Harlow have been assessed under five development scenarios. These show that the outcomes for Harlow vary substantially depending on the amount of growth provided. 1 Scenario A: Do Nothing More (3,913 dwellings, -1,207 jobs). Under this scenario the town would experience decline in its younger (0-17) and working age population (18-64) as these groups move out in search of employment and housing. This option increases the risk that schools would have to close and that businesses would choose not to invest due to lack of labour supply. As shown during the 1970s and 80s, the town faces a real prospect of decline under this scenario. 2 Scenario B: Meeting Development Needs (7,485 dwellings, +3,057 jobs). This scenario is the point at which the potential for future decline is minimised. This scenario corresponds to growth in both the younger (0- 17) and working age population (18-64) of Harlow. This scenario also corresponds to an increase in jobs over the period, albeit not enough to regain the jobs lost between 2008 and 2011. Under this scenario the town would grow but would fail to deliver sufficient growth to meet a wide number of objectives. 3 Scenario C: Jobs Led (11,490 dwellings, 8,060 jobs). This scenario would see an increase in 0-17 and 18-46 age groups of 23% and 25% respectively. This scenario corresponds to the ambient job growth potential of Harlow and is the point at which the town can deliver the majority of its affordable housing needs. A number of other regeneration objectives also become more likely to be delivered at this level of growth. This scenario would see Harlow growing to a similar size as Basingstoke or Crawley. ii 5343012v2 Harlow Future Prospects Study : Linking Regeneration & Growth 4 Scenario D: Growing Centre (15,000 dwellings, 12,099 jobs). Under this scenario the town would experience significant increases in the number of 0-17 and 18-46 year olds (41% and 33% respectively). This scenario would lead to Harlow’s population increasing to 114,000 people, the equivalent of Welwyn-Hatfield. This level of growth could support a substantially improved retail offer and enhanced higher education offer. 5 Scenario E: Transformed Centre (20,000 dwellings, 18,121 jobs). This scenario sees Harlow expanding to a town of 132,000 people, larger than present day Cambridge. This would correspond to significant increases in the number of 0-17 and 18-46 year olds (81% and 49% respectively). This option is considered to be the point at which multiple regeneration objectives could be delivered, including comprehensive town centre regeneration and a ‘step change’ in economic growth. Table ES1 summarises potential benefits of each of the scenarios. Table ES1 Summary of Scenario Outcomes by 2031 Scenario: Scenario A. Scenario B. Scenario C. Scenario D. Scenario E. ‘Meeting ‘Do Nothing ‘Growing ‘Transformed Receptor: Housing ‘Jobs Led’ More’ Centre’ Centre’ Needs’ Demographic Outcomes Dwelling Change +3,920 +7,483 +11,490 +15,000 +20,000 Dwellings p.a. +196 +374 +575 +750 +1,000 Population Change +4,022 +12,908 +22,997 +31,812 +44,455 of which Natural Change +12,341 +14,155 +15,582 +18,155 +20,917 of which Net Migration -8,319 -1,246 +7,415 +13,656 +23,538 Household Change +3,853 +7,356 +11,295 +14,749 +19,659 Labour Force -575 +3,938 +9,230 +13,504 +19,876 Jobs, Spending and Economic Outcomes Jobs -1,207 +3,057 +8,060 +12,099 +18,121 Jobs per annum -60 +153 +403 +605 +906 Total GVA (p.a.) £2.0bn £2.2bn £2.5bn £2.7bn £3.0bn Business Starts (p.a.) 300 330 365 395 483 H’hold Spending (p.a.) £1.9bn £2.1bn £2.3bn £2.5bn £2.7bn Public Finances Council Tax Base (p.a.) £49.2m £53.6m £58.6m £62.9m £69.1m New Homes Bonus £33.2m £63.4m £97.4m £127.2m £169.5m Business Rates (p.a.) £42.7m £47.6m £53.3m £57.9m £64.8m CIL/s106 Receipts £46.8m £89.5m £137.5m £179.4m £239.3m Community & Environment New Primary Sch. Places 0 +366 +1,566 +2,858 +4,600 New Secondary Sch. Pl. 0 +152 +659 +1,476 +2,384 New GP Needs 0 0 +1 +6 +13 New Open Space Needs +11.6 ha +22.1 ha +27.7 ha +44.2 ha +59.0 ha Land Take of New Devt. 196 ha 374 ha 575 ha 750 ha 1,000 ha J7a funding gap (£45m £39.7m / £34.8m / £29.4m / £24.6m / £17.9m / option / £200m option) £194.7m £189.8m £184.4m £179.6m £172.9m New Affordable Housing +1,174 +2,246 +3,447 +4,500 +6,000 Source: NLP 5343012v2 iii Harlow Future Prospects Study : Linking Regeneration & Growth Table ES2 provides an overview of the likelihood that the Council’s objectives would be met under each development scenario. Table ES2 Traffic Lighting Deliverability of Outcomes at Different Levels of Growth Scenario/Dwelling Growth: Scenario A.