Diplomacy in the Age of Artificial Intelligence EDA WORKING PAPER Dr. Corneliu Bjola Head of the Oxford Digital Diplomacy Research Group January 2020 Disclaimer: The views expressed in this publication are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Emirates Diplomatic Academy, an autonomous federal entity, or the UAE Government. Copyright: EmiratesDiplomatic Academy 2020. Image source: Shutterstock Photo, ID: 1013072284 The Emirates Diplomatic Academy (EDA) is an autonomous federal entity of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) delivering high-impact diplomatic training, and disseminating research and thought leadership that furthers the understanding of diplomacy and international relations. The EDA Working Papers are reviewed by at least two experts in the field to ensure high quality of the publication series. The views expressed in EDA Working Papers are solely those of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the EDA or the UAE Government. This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part for educational or non-profit purposes without alteration and prior written permission, provided acknowledgment of the source is made. No other use is permitted without the express prior written permission of the EDA. Emirates Diplomatic Academy Hamdan Bin Mohammed Street Al Hosn Palace District P.O. Box 35567 Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates http://eda.ac.ae/ [email protected] © Copyright 2020 Emirates Diplomatic Academy. All rights reserved. Dr. Corneliu Bjola Head of the Oxford Digital Diplomacy Research Group Dr. Corneliu Bjola is Associate Professor in Diplomatic Studies at the University of Oxford and Head of the Oxford Digital Diplomacy Research Group. He also serves as a Faculty Fellow at the Center on Public Diplomacy at the University of Southern California and as a Professorial Lecturer at the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna. His research focuses on issues related to the impact of digital technology on the conduct of diplomacy with a focus on strategic communication, digital influence and methods for countering digital propaganda. He has authored or edited six books, including the twin volumes on Countering Online Propaganda and Violent Extremism: The Dark Side of Digital Diplomacy (2018) – listed in the Best New International Relations Books To Read In 2019 - and Digital Diplomacy: Theory and Practice (2015). He is currently working on a new project “Diplomacy in the Age of Artificial Intelligence: Evolution or Revolution?” examining the potential transformative impact of AI in consular affairs, crisis communication, public diplomacy, and international negotiations. CONTENTS Executive Summary 2 1. What is Artificial Intelligence? 4 1.1. Definitions 4 1.2. Approaches 6 1.3. Types 7 1.4. Key Points 10 2. AI and Decision-Making: Hype vs Reality 10 2.1. Known Knowns 11 2.2. Known Unknowns 14 2.3. Unknown Unknowns 17 2.4. Key Points 19 3. Diplomacy and AI 19 3.1. Entry Points 22 3.2. Exit Points 26 3.3. Key Points 28 4. Designing AI for diplomacy: The SIIT Framework 29 4.1. Case Study: Diaspora Engagement 31 4.2. Key Points 36 Bibliography 38 1 Diplomacy in the Age of Artificial Intelligence Executive Summary • The global race to developing Artificial Key takeaways Intelligence (AI) capability is on with a clear focus on military, government surveillance, and • AI refers to the activity by which computers economic applications. Studies have also started process large volumes of data using highly to investigate the AI potential for tackling some sophisticated algorithms to simulate human of the world’s most challenging social problems reasoning and/or behaviour. and have found reasons for optimism that AI • The “AI effect” helps explain moving expectations can improve conditions in a variety of social about technology: as AI brings a new technology domains ranging from educational challenges to into the common fold, people become addressing issues of health and hunger. As with accustomed to this technology, it stops being other technological revolutions, AI is bound to considered AI, and newer technology emerges. have far-reaching consequences in every corner of our societies, and diplomacy, by necessity, • Diplomatic functions can still be traditionally cannot escape its gravitational pull. pursued with existing means and resources with no AI support. The new potential that AI brings, • The issue regarding the transformative impact however, is cognitive augmentation, improved of AI on diplomacy bears three interconnected effectiveness and speed. questions: first, what exactly AI means, how does it work, and what forms it takes? Second, • AI systems are sufficiently developed conceptually to what extent is AI capable of revolutionising to provide decisional support for a broad spectrum how policy-makers take decisions? Third, in of diplomatic tasks. They are likely to evolve to what areas of diplomatic activity could AI make allow automation of routinised tasks and services a difference, in what form and with what kind of at the operational and tactical levels, but they will risks? By connecting theories of AI development, likely be kept out of strategic decision-making for decision-making, and institutional adaptation, technical and ethical reasons. the working paper develops an analytical • Structured decisions, descriptive analytics and framework for examining the transformative procedural knowledge are the most likely entry relationship between AI in diplomacy in a manner points for AI adoption in the diplomatic field; they that is conducive to generating relevant policy apply well to consular services and international insight concerning the potential for AI integration negotiations. in the activity of MFAs and embassies and its likely impact on core diplomatic tasks and activities. 2 • Degrees of sustainability of AI technological innovation, perceptions of AI liability for diplomatic engagement, ethical reflections on matters concerning human control and AI (geo)political implications as well as practical considerations related to surveillance constitute potential exit points that may lead Ministries of Foreign Affairs (MFAs) to limit, postpone or abandon AI adoption. • A potentially revolutionary contribution of AI to diplomacy would be to assist the decision-maker to prescribe a course of action in a dynamic fashion; that is, by constantly and automatically adapting its recommendations based on continuous description, diagnostic, prediction, and action loops. • Ministries of Foreign Affairs could deploy the TIID framework as a conceptual roadmap for designing, delivering and deploying AI solutions in diplomacy, that combines considerations about what the objective is (task improvement), how to accomplish it (innovation), with what resources (physical/digital integration) and in what institutional configuration (deployment). 3 EDA WORKING PAPER | DIPLOMACY IN THE AGE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 1. What is Artificial Intelligence? “By far, the greatest danger of Artificial Intelligence is that people conclude too early that they understand it.” - Eliezer Yudkowsky (AI researcher) 1.1. Definitions The term “artificial intelligence” was first coined by an American computer scientist, John McCarthy in 1956, who defined AI as “the science and engineering of making intelligent machines, especially intelligent computer programs”.1 In basic terms, AI refers to the activity by which computers process large volumes of data using highly sophisticated algorithms to simulate human reasoning and/or behaviour.2 Since 1950, the ability of a machine to act humanly has been evaluated based on the Turing test. To pass the test, a machine should be able to engage in a dialogue for at least five minutes in such a way that a human interrogator could not distinguish its behaviour from that of a human being. To act humanly, a machine would have to meet two conditions: (i) react appropriately to the variance in human dialogue and (ii) display a human-like personality and intentions. No machine has passed the test thus far, and some researchers believe that for mathematical reasons it would be actually impossible to program a machine which can master the complex and evolving pattern of variance which human dialogues contain.3 Thinking humanly, on the other hand, would imply that the machine would be able to think like a person that is, it would be able to store, process, organise information so that it can solve problems and make inferences about new situations. Drawing on theories of cognitive theory, the field of cognitive computing has taken the lead in combining symbolic methods with statistical methods to explore how AI can reason and learn with vast amounts of data.4 Russell & Norvig use these two dimensions (reasoning and behaviour) to group AI definitions according to the emphasis they place on thinking vs acting humanly. The definitions on top in Fig 1 are concerned, for instance, with thought processes and reasoning, whereas the ones on the bottom address behaviour. The definitions in the left column measure success in terms of fidelity to human performance, whereas the ones on the right measure AI excellence against an ideal rational performance.5 Another approach to defining AI is by zooming in on the two constitutive components of the concept. Nils J. 1 John McCarthy, “What Is AI? / Basic Questions,” 2011, accessed May 22, 2019, http://jmc.stanford.edu/artificial-intelligence/what-is-ai/index.html. 2 In simple terms, behaviour refers to the way in which people act to a particular situation