Repository. Research Institute University European Institute. Cadmus, EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE EUI WORKINGEUI PAPERS on University Access European Open Author(s). Available The 2020. © in Library EUI the by produced version Digitised Repository. Research Institute University European European University Institute 3 Institute. 0001 Cadmus, on 0036 University 3926 Access European 9 Open Author(s). Available The 2020. © in Library EUI the by produced version Digitised Repository. Research Institute University European Institute. Cadmus, on University Access Ross: EUI Working Paper RSC No. 99/4 European Open “BeyondLeft andRight": The New 'Partisan' Politics of Welfare Author(s). Available The 2020. © in Library EUI the by WP 3 0 9 EUR produced version Digitised Repository. Research Institute University European Institute. directed by Professors Maurizio Ferrera (Universities of Pavia and Bocconi, Milano) and This Working Paper has been written in the context of the 1998-1999 European Forum European European welfare states; a broad, Adopting long-term comparative and the perspective, will aim to: Forum Rhodes Martin (Robert Schuman Centre). programme on sub-national sub-national and supra-national level; scrutinize the ■ complex web of social, economic and political challenges to contemporary • and, more generally, outline broad the and scenarios change. trajectories of • discuss the • role of the various actors in promoting or hindering this reform at the the national, various optionsidentify and constraints for, on institutional reform; - Cadmus, on University Access Recasting Recasting the European Welfare State: Options, Constraints, Actors, European Open Author(s). Available The 2020. © in Library EUI the by produced version Digitised Repository. Research Institute University European Institute. Cadmus, EUROPEAN UNIVERSITY INSTITUTE, FLORENCE on BADIA FIESOLANA, SAN DOMENICO (FI) University The New Access Jean Monnet Fellow, European Forum Forum (1998-99) Jean European Monnet Fellow, EUI EUI Working EUFPaper No. 99/4 European Open “Beyond Left and Right”: EUROPEAN EUROPEAN FORUM Partisan University of Bristol and and Bristol ofUniversity Author(s). Available FIONA ROSS The Politics Welfareof 2020. © in Library EUI the by produced version Digitised Repository. Research Institute University European Institute. Cadmus, on University Access No of part may this in be paper reproduced any form European Open without without permission of the author. European University European Institute in Printed in Italy April 1999 I -I 50016 San Domenico (FI) Author(s). Available All rights reserved. © 1999 Ross Fiona The Badia Fiesolana Badia 2020. © in Italy Library EUI the by produced version Digitised Repository. Research Institute University European diffuse diffuse responsibility for divisive initiatives. One important omission from the electoral blame. Policy structures, distinguish countries contentious in theirto pursue capacity vested measures and avoid interests, and institutions play a differentiate between the The "new popular politics of the politics welfare state", the term of coined by Pierson welfare (1996) to expansion Abstract and the constellation constellation of blame-avoidance instruments. they also serve as strategies, thereby conditioning tendencies that parties is not principal only political ofsource provide a agency, opportunities for political the welfare state than the right. One explanation for these constraint". This paper cross-cutting contends that parties are relevant to the "new politics" expenditures, expenditures, only to conclude that recently probed the role parties over of the last decade. parties Responding to with this oversight, respect Castles constants (1998) has despite to radical aggregate changes government conceptualizations in the of governing the agenda of political many right leftist and left are implicitly prominent role in accounting for taken cross-national differences in leaders ability to as unpopular politics of retrenchment, emphasizes a number of factors that leadership. leadership. By extension, they need to be situated within the "new politics" intuitive. That is, in notable some cases, the has left had effect more in bruising and that, under specified institutional conditions, their impact is counter­ "new "new politics" literature, however, is a discussion of partisan politics. "Old" Institute. Cadmus, on University Access European Open Author(s). Available The parties do not matter 2020. © in Library EUI the by under "conditions of produced version Digitised Repository. Research Institute University European - - ' ■ Institute. V, -• -• .. Cadmus, on . University Access European Open Author(s). Available The 2020. © in Library EUI the by produced version Digitised I. An Era of Constraint: New Policies, New Politics New policies bring new politics (Lowi, 1972).* This is the central contention of Repository. the "new politics" of welfare, a term coined by Pierson (1996) to differentiate between the popular politics of welfare state expansion and the unpopular politics of welfare state retrenchment. Building on Weaver’s (1986) concept of blame-avoidance, the new politics literature attends to a number of factors that Research help leaders diffuse responsibility for conflictual and often painful welfare initiatives. Pierson’s (1994, 1996) research emphasizes the importance of Institute policy structures, institutions and interests. Past policy choices become part of the rules of the game and thereby affect future policy choices. Options for retrenchment vary with the extent of policy "lock-in" and the visibility of losses. Because retrenchment is unpopular, politicians must pursue strategies of University “obfuscation”, “division” (among opponents) or “compensation” (Pierson, 1994:24). Each strategy has its limits. European The importance of these strategies derives from the fact that electorates punish losses more readily than they reward gains (Lau, 1982, 1985; Weaver, Institute. 1986; Pierson, 1994). They are both more attuned and more reactive to the costs of cuts. The loss of public services (often regarded as basic public goods Cadmus, rather than benefits), are more salient than the potential gains of reduced on taxation levels. Focusing on the power of vested interests embedded within University prevailing welfare institutions, Pierson (1994) draws on the “logic of collective Access action” (Olson, 1965) to explain the inherent dangers of withdrawing resources: losers incur clear, high, concentrated costs, while winners receive unclear, European Open small, thinly spread benefits.1 The new politics thesis, therefore, is founded upon three premises (a) Author(s). retrenchment initiatives are unpopular either to the public at large or important Available vested interests; (b) policies affect politics and thus leaders must devise new, The 2020. creative means of avoiding blame; and (c) policy is path dependent and, © therefore, existing welfare programs will condition opportunities for blame- in avoidance and retrenchment. Yet, despite its welcome attention to policy structures, institutions and interests, the new politics literature omits any Library explicit discussion of partisan politics. At best, "old" conceptualizations of the left and right remain implicit; parties of the right seek to "downsize" the EUI welfare state while parties of the left continue to champion its cause to the the greatest extent that global competition and fiscal restraint will permit. by Responding to this oversight, Castles (1998) has recently examined aggregate expenditures across OECD democracies only to conclude that parties produced do not matter under conditions of constraint. Perhaps a surprising argument from one of the most prominent proponents of the "parties matter" thesis, Castles (1998:32) contends that; "the impact of partisanship is contingent on version Digitised high levels of economic growth." Reacting to Pierson’s depiction of the new politics, Castles (1998:33) elaborates; “in our account pressure group resistance to program cuts plays no discernible part. Thus, rather than identifying the Repository. characteristic mode of contemporary public sector decision making as a ‘new politics’ of blame-avoidance, our preferred focus in on the emergence of a ‘new political economy’ of economic and institutional constraint.”' Research It is our contention that parties do matter under conditions of constraint, but not necessarily in the neat, linear fashion that either ordinary least squares Institute regression models will detect or highly aggregated expenditure data. It is not that parties are irrelevant, but rather that their effects are contingent and sometimes counter-intuitive. Indeed, several leftist parties, not least Britain’s New Labour, have loudly trumpeted their pursuit of non-leftist policies University (heralded by Giddens’ slogan “beyond left and right”).3 This is particularly the case in the two-party systems characterizing the English-speaking nations, where core constituencies (and parliamentarians) do not enjoy opportunities for European transferring their allegiances to parties further to the left and where there is no credible challenge to frames portending the inevitability of welfare cuts. Institute. Before examining the role of parties and the critical interaction between Cadmus, parties and institutional settings, let us start by saying a few words about the on dependent variable of the new politics: unpopular policies. University Access European II. Unpopular