Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation PlanningClimate ReportChange Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning Report Enhancing Sustainability and Climate Resilience of Forest and Agriculture Landscape and Community Livelihoods in Bhutan JULY 2016 UNDP, BHUTAN JULY 2016 TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................................................... IV LIST OF ACRONYMS ...................................................................................................................................... 1 LIST OF BHUTANESE TERMS ...................................................................................................................... 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................................................. 3 1. BACKGROUND ........................................................................................................................................ 5 1.1 CONTEXT ...........................................................................................................................................................................5 1.2 SCOPE OF WORK AND LIMITATIONS .......................................................................................................................5 2. METHODOLOGY OF THE ASSIGNMENT ........................................................................................... 6 2.1 DESK REVIEW .................................................................................................................................................................6 2.2 CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO IN BHUTAN ..........................................................................................................6 2.2.1 Temperature Scenario ....................................................................................................................................... 7 2.2.2 Precipitation Scenario ...................................................................................................................................... 9 2.2.3 Impacts on Agriculture and Livestock ..................................................................................................... 10 2.2.4 Impacts on Forests and Biodiversity ........................................................................................................ 11 2.2.5 Impacts on socio-economic development infrastructure ................................................................. 13 2.3 POLICIES, LEGISLATION, REGULATIONS AND PROGRAMS ........................................................................ 14 2.4 SURVEY DESIGN .......................................................................................................................................................... 19 2.4.1 Selection of Gewogs and Chiwogs for the Field Survey .................................................................. 19 2.5 FIELD SURVEY AND DATA COLLECTION .......................................................................................................... 20 2.6 DATA COMPILATION AND ANALYSIS ................................................................................................................. 21 3. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ..... 22 3.1 DEFINITIONS ................................................................................................................................................................. 22 3.2 CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK ............................................................... 22 3.3 VULNERABILITY INDEX CONCEPT ....................................................................................................................... 23 4 CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT .................................................................... 26 4.1 VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AT DIFFERENT LEVELS............................................................................... 26 4.1.1 Climate Change Vulnerability across Landscapes ............................................................................ 26 4.1.2 Vulnerability across landscape Gewogs................................................................................................. 28 4.1.3 Vulnerability across landscape Chiwogs ............................................................................................... 31 4.2 EXPOSURE INDEX ....................................................................................................................................................... 32 4.2.1 Exposure indices across landscapes ........................................................................................................ 33 4.2.2 Exposure Indices across landscape Gewogs ........................................................................................ 33 4.2.3 Exposure Indices across landscape Chiwogs ....................................................................................... 35 4.3 SENSITIVITY INDEX ................................................................................................................................................... 37 4.3.1 Sensitivity indices across landscapes ...................................................................................................... 37 4.3.2 Sensitivity Indices across landscape Gewogs ...................................................................................... 39 4.3.3 Sensitivity Indices across landscape Chiwogs ..................................................................................... 40 4.4 ADAPTIVE CAPACITY INDEX ................................................................................................................................. 43 i 4.4.1 Adaptive Capacity indices across landscapes ...................................................................................... 43 4.4.2 Adaptive Capacity across landscape Gewogs ...................................................................................... 44 4.4.3 Adaptive Capacity Indices across landscape Chiwogs .................................................................... 46 4.5 OVERALL ASSESSMENT ........................................................................................................................................... 48 5 CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONS.................................................................................................. 49 5.1 EXISTING ADAPTATION RESPONSES - PROGRAMS ....................................................................................... 49 5.1 EXISTING ADAPTATION RESPONSES - POLICIES AND PROGRAMS.......................................................... 50 5.2 RECOMMENDATIONS ON POTENTIAL ADAPTATION RESPONSES ............................................................ 53 LIST OF REFERENCES: ................................................................................................................................ 63 ANNEX 1: COMMUNITY ASSESSMENT OF CHANGES IN CLIMATIC FACTORS ............................... 65 ANNEX 2: STANDARDIZED BASELINE INDICATORS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE VULNERABILITY AT CHIWOG LEVEL ...................................................................................................................................... 66 ANNEX 3: BASELINE INDICATORS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE EXPOSURE INDEX AT CHIWOG LEVEL.............................................................................................................................................................. 67 ANNEX 4: BASELINE INDICATORS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE SENSITIVITY INDEX AT CHIWOG LEVEL.............................................................................................................................................................. 68 ANNEX 6: LIST OF PEOPLE CONSULTED DURING THE FIELD SURVEY AND CONSULTATIONS ......................................................................................................................................... 70 ANNEX 7: LIST OF SELECTED CHIWOGS BY DZONGKHAGS AND GEWOGS ................................... 72 ANNEX 8: INFORMATION GATHERED FROM THE GEWOG CENTER ............................................ 73 ANNEX 9: INFORMATION RELATED TO BASELINE ALIGNED WITH GEF TRACKING TOOLS 77 ANNEX 10: SEMI-STRUCTURED QUESTIONNAIRE FOR PRAS AND KEY INFORMANTS AT CHIWOG LEVEL ............................................................................................................................................ 82 ii List of Tables Table 1: Assessment of Bhutan's Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Change ................................... 6 Table 2: Overall temperature outlook for Bhutan .................................................................................... 7 Table 3: Overall Precipitation Outlook for Bhutan .................................................................................. 9 Table 4: Observed Changes in Flowering Time of Plant Species........................................................... 12 Table 5: Observed Changes in decrease or increase in wildlife population ............................................ 12 Table 6: Extreme Weather Events, Hazard and Damages ...................................................................... 13 Table 7: Survey Area selection framework ........................................................................................... 20 Table 8: Landscape and