Features Uranium market conditions and their impact on trends in uranium exploration and resource development A review of historical developments and projections through the turn of the century by Eberhard Miiller-Kahle Thhee estimates for the growth of nuclear power projection, translating into a demand of 244 000 tonnes made in the 1970s have been found to be overly optimis- uranium (tU).* This projection compares with the most tic. The reality accentuated by the accidents at Three recent estimates of 337 GWe and about 49 000 tU, Mile Island and Chernobyl has reduced these projections approximately 20% of the 1975 projection. to a mere fraction of the original estimates. In more detail, it is estimated that the uranium This development has affected the nuclear fuel cycle demand for WOCA increased from about 4000 tU in industry, especially its sub-sector, the uranium resource 1965 to 41 500 tU in 1989. This is equivalent to an industry, which occupies the first step of activities to annual growth rate of over 10%. The projection for the produce fuel for nuclear reactors. time through 2005 estimates a further, though smaller, Most producers had to reduce uranium production, increase to nearly 53 000 tU, or about 1.5% per year. with the exception of Australia and Canada. Especially It is obvious that the difference between projection painful has been the reduction of revenues for the devel- and reality of uranium demand had significant impacts oping countries Gabon and Niger. Niger's economy on the uranium mining industry, which was undertaking depends to a large part on the revenues from uranium efforts to supply the uranium needed for an ambitious exports. nuclear programme. This process led to an oversupply The following article reviews developments in the of uranium through about 1984-85. uranium market and its consequences for uranium explo- In 1965, uranium production totalled about 16 000 tU, ration, and it outlines trends in exploration and uranium compared to a demand of 4000 tU. Production increased resource development. to a peak of over 44 000 tU in 1980 and 1981, compared to a demand of about 30 000 tU. The overproduction through about 1985 led to a buildup of a uranium stock- Uranium market conditions pile in WOCA, estimated to total 150 000 tU.** (See The current uranium market is mainly a reflection of accompanying figures.) several partly interconnected economic, parameters: The uranium industry's adjustment in the 1980s was reactor-related uranium demand, supply, and uranium very painful for mining companies and the countries prices. where they operated. Total uranium production in Uranium demand is based on nuclear electricity WOCA declined from a peak in 1980-81 of over generating capacity, whose growth had been vastly over- 44 000 t to about 34 000 t in 1989; it is now where it estimated in the past. For example, in 1975 this capacity stood in 1978. was estimated to reach over 2000 gigawatts-electric This development affected mainly producers in South (GWe) in the year 2000 for the World outside centrally Africa and the USA, where between 1980 and 1989 planned economies area (WOCA). This was a low production declined by more than 50% to 70%, respec- * Uranium Resources, Production, and Demand, NEA (OECD)/ IAEA, Paris (1986). Mr Miiller-Kahle is a staff member in the IAEA Division of Nuclear ** Uranium Resources, Production, and Demand, NEA (OECD)/ Fuel Cycle and Waste Management. IAEA, Paris (1990). IAEA BULLETIN, 3/1990 29 Features WOCA uranium production 1980 and 1989 WOCA uranium supply and demand, 1977 through 1989 1980 1989 Tonnes Tonnes 45 000 Per cent Per cent uranium uranium 40 000 Australia 1 561 3.5 3 800 11.2 Canada 7 150 16.2 11 000 32.5 France 2 634 5.9 3 190 9.4 Gabon 1 033 2.3 950 2.8 c 30 000 Namibia 4 042 9.1 3 600 10.6 c o Niger 4 128 9.3 3 000 8.8 WOCA = World outiide South Africa 6 146 13.9 2 900 8.5 • centrally planned economies area. USA 16 800 38.0 4 600 13.6 ^ 25 000 1989 data i& preliminary. Rest of WOCA* 749 1.7 900 2.6 20 000 1977 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 44 243 99.9 33 940 100.0 Note: Data for 1989 is preliminary. * World outside centrally planned economies area includes Argentina, Belgium, Federal Republic of Germany, India, Japan (1980), Pakistan, WOCA uranium production, 1977-89 Portugal, Spain, Yugoslavia (1989). BSRest of WOCA 50 000 ESSSouth Africa is estimated that three companies (CAMECO, 45 000 ESAustralia COGEMA, RTZ) produce over 40% and that eight com- ••Canada panies (CAMECO, COGEMA, RTZ, Nufcor, ERA, 40 000 E2USA Denison, Energy Fuels, and Uranerz Exploration and 35 000 Mining) produce over 70% of the total. The future effect of this concentration among a few I 30 000 producer countries and companies on the uranium mar- t 25 000 ket may be reduced competition and, consequently, rapid price increases where justified. For the first time | 20 000 in perhaps 15 years, the concern "that the supply 15 000 side of the market might develop in the direction of a 10 000 'cartel'" was expressed in late 1989.* The supply-demand projection for 1990-2005 is 5 000 based on two supply scenarios. They refer to (1) the 0 production capability of existing and committed mines 1977 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 and mills, which mine low-cost resources (recoverable WOCA = World outside centrally planned at US $80/kg U or below); and (2) the expected produc- economies area tion, which is assumed to be 80% of the production 1989 data is preliminary capability, as defined above. For both scenarios, the increasing demand that is projected, from about 41 900 tU in 1990 to 52 900 tU in 2005, cannot be filled. The gaps in production capa- tively. Other countries, including Gabon and Niger, had bility increase from about 1000 tU in 1990 to over to make only smaller reductions of about 10% and 27%, 20 000 tU in 2005. The cumulative gap is 135 000 tU, respectively. However, Australia and Canada were able or 18% of the demand over this period. In turn, the gap to increase their production by over 140% and 55%, for expected production is larger, totalling 250 000 tU, respectively. (See accompanying table.) or 34% of the cumulative demand. Regarding the geographic concentration of WOCA's These gaps, however, do not represent supply 1989 uranium production, three main producers deficits. This is because the large uranium inventories of (Canada, USA, and Australia) have a combined share of both producers and consumers in WOCA are being used over 57%. Five main producers (Canada, USA, Austra- to fill this shortfall. Of the total WOCA inventory of lia, Namibia, and France) have a share of over 77 %, and eight countries produce over 97% of WOCA's total. In addition to the geographic distribution of WOCA's uranium production, the breakdown by major producing * "U prices not likely to gain next year, but eyes are on the companies is interesting. Based on 1989 production, it mid-1990s", Nuclear Fuel (25 December 1989). 30 IAEA BULLETIN, 3/1990 Features 150 000 tU, about 70 000 tU exceed the amount needed for buffer stocks, and they are thus considered available as supply. In addition, there are uranium stocks in non- Development of long-term uranium prices WOCA countries of unknown quantities. (Estimates, however, are in the range of a multiple of the available WOCA stocks.) I £.\J In both cases, stocks are probably increasing, as ura- 110 - •, --Canada 110 nium used for defense purposes may be entering the £ «"•"""—\ 3 100 - / • V - 100 civilian market. In view of this, it can be estimated that C E m total stocks will be able to fill the production gaps 3 90 y - 90 1 E projected through 2005 for both supply scenarios. a .. "? 80 1 - 80 p-^ J? Thus, despite the production deficit, the uranium logr \V 1 70 70 5io market is plagued with an oversupply of stocks. The 1 / USA- \ - consequences are a buyer's market, which would con- Q. £ 60 / / domestic 60 ^ «= >- en tinue through the turn of the century, and a continuing / / USA--^^\ uranium cy w "5 •§ 50 imported 50 S"3, pressure on prices. -o uranium r 1/ As with other natural resources, such as oil and cop- 40 - 40 | dia per, there are two prices for uranium: the spot price for m c 30 - 30 3 short-term deliveries and the contract price for longer- ID - term deliveries. Also, the volume traded under these 20 - - 20 prices differ; the large majority of the material is traded i i i i i i i i i i i i i i 1 ft under long-term contracts. 975 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 1U Trends in long-term uranium prices reflect the aver- age export price of Canadian producers between 1970 and 1988, as well as the average price in the USA for domestic uranium (which from 1976 through 1981 includes minor amounts of imported material.) (See accompanying figure.) Looking at the trend, both prices increased from a level of about US $40/kg U in 1976 to Development of the NUEXCO spot price a peak of US $100-110/kg U in 1981. The subsequent decline is not as drastic as it appears, having been damp- ened by high-price contracts concluded in the late 1970s.