ISSN: 2560-1601 Vol. 33, No. 4 (BG) October 2020 Bulgaria external relations briefing: Bulgaria and the “Three Seas Intiative” Evgeniy Kandilarov 1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11. +36 1 5858 690 Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. [email protected] Szerkesztésért felelős személy: CHen Xin Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping china-cee.eu 2017/01 Bulgaria and the “Three Seas Intiative” Bulgaria is taking over the chairmanship of the Three Seas Initiative in 2021 One of the key foreign policy events related to Bulgaria in the last month was the participation of Bulgarian President Rumen Radev in a summit of the "Three Seas Initiative" countries in Tallinn, Estonia held on October 19. At a special ceremony Bulgaria took over the chairmanship of the initiative for the next 2021 year. Bulgarian President and the Polish President Duda were the only two head of states who flew to Estonia, while the other members were present via video conference connection. The virtual summit's participants also included U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, European Commission Executive Vice-President Margrethe Vestager and several business leaders. The forum focused on the future of Central and Eastern Europe, new investment opportunities and the smart connectivity concept. Bulgaria's desire to host the next summit of the Three Seas initiative was announced in early 2020. Meanwhile, the Bulgarian government and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, respectively, have expressed doubts about whether it is better to postpone hosting this forum for 2022. The main reason for this was the fact that next year Bulgaria will hold parliamentary and presidential elections. Nevertheless, finally it was decided not to postpone hosting of the summit. At the beginning of September Bulgarian prime Minister underlined once again that Bulgaria's participation in the Three Seas Initiative is geostrategic and further reinforces Bulgaria's important role in the region. That is why the national coordination of the forum on the Bulgarian side will be at a very high level. From the very beginning of this initiative, Bulgaria has been actively involved in all steps for its implementation. The Three Seas initiative, launched five years ago, brings together 12 European countries between the Adriatic, Baltic and Black Seas. They are Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. The announced main goal of the Initiative was through joint projects to promote cooperation for infrastructure, digital and energy connectivity, to achieve sustainability and economic growth. Up to that moment the Three Seas Initiative is not institutionalized and has no headquarters or secretariat. The initiative is developing as a pragmatic platform for cooperation with a main focus on deepening the integration of the countries of the region between the Baltic, Adriatic 1 and Black Seas and creating greater connectivity between them on the North-South line in the field of energy, transport, communications, information technology and business. During the third summit of the Three Seas Initiative (September 17-18, 2018, Bucharest, Romania), an intention was announced to establish an Investment Fund to finance the approved projects proposed by the countries participating in the Initiative. The official establishment of the Fund, based in Luxembourg, was announced at the summit of the Three Seas Initiative (5- 6 June 2019, Ljubljana, Slovenia). The activity of the fund is in addition to the existing EU funds and is aimed at financing projects related to transport infrastructure, energy, digital technologies to compensate for the differences in the development of different regions of the European Union. At the same time the Fund is expected to give priority to the projects of the main sponsors. From the countries of the region Poland has the biggest contribution - 500 million euros, and for Bulgaria and other countries the minimum is 20 million euros. Thus far, the initiative has rolled out several infrastructure projects, notably the Via Carpatia, running from Klaipeda in Lithuania to Thessaloniki in Greece, the Rail Baltica railway connection from Warsaw via Riga to Tallinn with a ferry crossing to Helsinki, or the Danube-Oder-Elbe inland waterway connection. Meanwhile a network is also being established between the chambers of commerce and industry of the 12 Central and Eastern European countries participating in the initiative. On the Bulgarian side, the Bulgarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry participates in this format. At the meeting in Bucharest, on the initiative of the United States, was launched also a new format of cooperation with the 3SI member states called Partnership for Transatlantic Energy Cooperation. Bulgaria's actions for more active participation in the initiative As it was already mentioned Bulgaria has been involved actively in all meetings of this format. Representatives of the Ministry of Energy participate in three of the four working groups for energy cooperation. On September 2, 2020, two Decisions of the Council of Ministers were adopted, both related to the further involvement of Bulgaria in the Initiative. First, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ms. Ekaterina Zaharieva, was appointed National Coordinator on the Bulgarian side for the Three Seas Initiative. At this position she should lead and coordinate the work of the inter-ministerial working group, to cooperate with the national coordinators of the Member States of the Initiative and with other countries and international organizations. The second decision of the government was for the participation of the Bulgarian Development Bank in the Investment Fund of the Three Seas Initiative with a contribution of 2 EUR 20 million. In all its positions the government is arguing that the Bulgarian participation in the Initiative will lead not only to deepening the integration between the countries of the region between the Baltic, Adriatic and Black Seas but will create many jobs and above all will provide an opportunity for energy diversification of Bulgaria. The main projects with which Bulgaria participates are the reconstruction of the Ruse- Varna railway line, the expansion of the underground gas storage in Chiren, the construction of the Black Sea highway connecting Bourgas and Varna and the construction of a tunnel under the Petrohan pass. The last one is part of Pan-European Corridor IV. As the Petrohan pass is the shortest route between Sofia and north-western Bulgaria (and from there Romania, especially since the opening of the Vidin–Calafat Bridge) the expansion of the narrow road passing through the pass has been suggested, including by the construction of a tunnel. At the summit in Tallinn Bulgarian president Radev declared that Bulgaria will propose that the Three Seas initiative take on another priority - educational and scientific connectivity, along with the already established areas of cooperation - energy, transport and digital connectivity. Radev pointed out that the infrastructure is important, but if we want to have the economy of the future, we must invest in scientific and educational connectivity, in capacity building, in establishing connectivity between young research teams, organizations and universities. Another priority that Rumen Radev announced was that he would propose to expand the geographical scope of the initiative to Greece and Cyprus. According to him, this gives a better position to Bulgaria, because It has no interest in staying on the periphery, and the infrastructure, energy and digital routes end at Its border. Three Seas Initiative as a Geopolitical tool against Russia and China At the same time, there is another point of view on this initiative, which raises doubts and even concerns about the real benefits or harms that will follow Bulgaria's participation in it. These concerns relate to the initiative being seen not simply as an infrastructure, communication and economic project, but rather as a military-political project directed against Russia and even China. Another concern of the geopolitical experts is that the "Three Seas" Initiative could become a trigger for a new division in the European Union, and this is not in favor of Bulgaria, which should not allow itself to fall into the Eastern European bloc somehow opposing the West Europe. Reasons for that kind of concerns are coming from the fact that from the very beginning of the Three seas Initiative USA have been keen on supporting and investing in the region, aiming to roll back Russian influence and counter Chinese “17 + 1” and “Belt and Road 3 Initiative” investments in the CEEC region. In October this year the US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs unanimously adopted a motion for a resolution in support of the Three Seas Initiative. The resolution contains plans to increase energy security and connectivity in the region's infrastructure. It says Russia "uses energy as a weapon to put pressure on or undermine freedom and democracy in Europe." At the Tallinn summit, the US delegation announced a $ 300 million investment through the US Development Finance Corporation (DFC) in the Three Seas Fund. The investment should be finalized in December. At the same time, US Deputy Secretary of Economic Affairs, Energy and Environment Keith Krach announced the US commitment to contribute 30% of the contributions of the 12 countries of the initiative, taken