33592 Public Disclosure Authorized Paper No. 27 / June 2005 Public Disclosure Authorized Conflict-Sensitive Development Assistance: The Case of Burundi Public Disclosure Authorized Juana Brachet Howard Wolpe Public Disclosure Authorized Summary Findings Since its independence in 1962, Burundi has been mired in an unending cycle of conflict. Successive Four years into the transition that began in November waves of violence have increased ethnic and regional 2001 some factors threaten to escalate Burundi’s divisions, while deepening already extreme poverty. conflict, while others are working to dampen the Although Burundians traditionally did not mobilize conflict or have an uncertain impact. The large politically around their Hutu and Tutsi ethnic number of “on the brink” factors suggests that there identities, the chronic post-independence violence are still many opportunities for development inserted a mass dimension to what is fundamentally assistance, and traditional and Track II diplomacy to an elite-driven and manipulated conflict. Repeated assist in the consolidation of Burundi’s peace inter-communal massacres have rendered the process. population susceptible to ethnically framed political appeals. The paper notes eight principles to guide development assistance: (i) “do no harm” particularly The still-evolving peace process begun in Arusha, to avoid reinforcing or triggering conflict causes; (ii) Tanzania in 1996 offers an opportunity for Burundi make peace dividends visible to the population; (iii) to break out of the zero-sum game that has include short-term issues, especially the restoration of characterized its political and social life since shortly security; (iv) limit the potential for mass after independence. Although active conflict has mobilization; (v) address the structural causes of diminished, peace and reconciliation remains conflict; (vi) address the perceptual and attitudinal fragile—as tragically demonstrated by the August legacy of the conflict; (vii) ensure that development 2004 massacre of Congolese Banyamulenge in a assistance is consistent and sustained; and (viii) refugee camp in Burundi and sporadic eruptions of consider the regional context. violence in Bujumbura Rurale province. In this context, the paper explores ways in which The paper reviews a number of development areas development assistance can contribute to the where there are opportunities to incorporate the consolidation of peace, framed within a above principles, including: the PRSP process; rural contextualized assessment of Burundi’s conflict using development; infrastructure; security sector reform the Bank’s Conflict Analysis Framework. and demobilization and reintegration of ex- combatants; land tenure; employment generation; The conflict analysis finds ethnicity is only one of governance; and the social sectors. several cleavages in Burundian society. Although the ethnic divide is perceived to be more prominent In terms of project design and implementation, the because of four decades of manipulation of socio- paper emphasizes the need to: engage the elites on ethnic identities, there are also important clan, the side of peace; invest in bottom-up approaches, regional and class-based divides. These divides have especially through inclusive and community-driven been exacerbated by: differential social opportunities; interventions; include peace-building components in a history of violence and impunity; poor economic projects; carefully monitor and assess development performance, inequality and environmental stress; interventions in terms of explicit peace-building failed governance and institutions; and the spillover objectives and indicators; map and consider the effects of regional conflict among Burundi’s multiplicity of variables that affect the peace process; neighbors. and complement regional stabilization efforts. SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT PAPERS Conflict Prevention & Reconstruction Paper No. 27 /June 2005 Conflict-Sensitive Development Assistance: The Case of Burundi Juana Brachet Howard Wolpe This Working Papers Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage discussion and exchange of ideas on conflict and development issues. Papers in this series are not formal publications of the World Bank. This paper has not undergone the review accorded to official World Bank publications. The findings, interpretations and conclusions herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or its Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The papers carry the names of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The series is edited by the Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction Unit in the Social Development Department of the Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development Network for the World Bank. To request copies of the paper or for more information on the series, please contact the CPR Unit. Papers are also available on the CPR Unit’s website. For additional copies of this paper, please contact: Conflict Prevention & Reconstruction Social Development Department The World Bank 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 Fax: 202-522-3247 Web : http://www.worldbank.org/conflict (see “Publications” in the navigation menu) E-mail: [email protected] Printed on Recycled Paper Table of Contents Acronyms ..................................................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................................... iii INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND ................................................................................................. 1 I. CONFLICT ANALYSIS: SCARCITY, COMPETITION, AND THE MANIPULATION OF ETHNICITY (1965-PRESENT) ............................................................................................................ 4 Main Causes of Conflict: Scarcity, Competition and the Manipulation of Ethnicity ............................ 5 Economic Structure and Performance: Competition in a Context of Extreme Poverty and Concentration of Power ......................................................................................................................... 8 External Forces: A Challenging Neighborhood, with Cross Border Feedback Effects ........................ 9 II. CONFLICT DYNAMICS: STRUCTURAL CAUSES, TRIGGERS, AND FEEDBACK EFFECTS………………………………………………………………………………….………….10 III. CONFLICT DYNAMICS TODAY: ON THE BRINK .................................................................... 12 Potentially De-Escalating Factors........................................................................................................ 12 Potentially Escalating Factors.............................................................................................................. 13 Several Factors Are “On the Brink” with Currently Uncertain Impact ............................................... 14 IV. AREAS IN WHICH DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE CAN SUPPORT THE TRANSITION AND OPERATIONAL ISSUES TO CONSIDER .............................................................................. 15 Development Assistance and Diplomacy in War-to-Peace Transitions............................................... 15 Considerations for the Development Agenda in Burundi.................................................................... 17 V. OPERATIONAL ISSUES TO CONSIDER IN PROJECT DESIGN, IMPLEMENTATION AND MONITORING AND EVALUATION...................................................................................... 21 Annex 1: Chronology ................................................................................................................................ 24 Bibliography............................................................................................................................................... 27 Boxes Box 1: Four Phases in the Peace Process, 1993-2004.………………………………………………….…2 Box 2: Causal Relationships, 1996-2004……………………………………………………………….…12 Box 3: Government Priorities and Donor Support, 2004-2005…………………………………………...20 Tables Table 1: Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 1990-2002…………………………………………....9 Table 2: Conflicts After Independence……………………………………………………………………10 Table 3: Causes that Development and Diplomacy/Track II Interventions Can Address……………...…16 Table 4: Conflict Variables and Some Key Program and Project-Level Implications……………………23 ii Acronyms AMIB African Mission in Burundi BLTP Burundi Leadership Training Program CNDD-FDD National Council for the Defence of Democracy/Forces for the Defence of Democracy DDR Disarmament, Demobilization and Reintegration DRC Democratic Republic of Congo DRRP Demobilization, Reinsertion and Reintegration Program EMGI Etat-major general intégré FAB Armed Forces of Burundi FNL Forces for National Liberation GDP Gross Domestic Product GNP Gross National Product HIV/AIDS Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome IMF International Monetary Fund I-PRSP Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper MDRP Multi-Country Demobilization and Reintegration Program ONUB Opérations des Nations Unies au Burundi PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UPRONA Parti de l’Unité pour le Progrès National iii Acknowledgements This paper