p R. Decker/GNWT p Bonnie Fournier p John Nagy p NWT Archives p GNWT NWT CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION REPORT 2008 p Craig Scott p Jennifer Skelton TABLE OF CONTENTS Introduction ........................................................................ 3 From Impacts to Adaptation ............................................. 15 The Global Perspective of Climate Change Impacts ............ 5 Construction on Permafrost.......................................... 16 Climate Change Impacts in the Northwest Territories .......... 7 Winter Roads ............................................................... 17 Permafrost ..................................................................... 8 Snow and Rain Effects on Infrastructure ....................... 18 Ice Conditions ................................................................ 9 Monitoring Environmental Change ................................ 19 Precipitation and Water ................................................ 10 Biodiversity Conservation ............................................. 21 Forests ......................................................................... 11 Heritage Conservation .................................................. 22 Wildlife ......................................................................... 12 Human Health .............................................................. 23 Culture and Heritage .................................................... 13 Community Planning .................................................... 24 Human Health .............................................................. 14 Planning for the Future ...................................................... 25 Immediate Risks ........................................................... 26 Longer-term Vulnerabilities ........................................... 27 Challenges to Adaptation Planning ............................... 29 Next Step: NWT Climate Change Adaptation Plan ............ 31 1 p Jennifer Skelton INTRODUCTION The Northwest Territories (NWT) has a cold Arctic climate. Scientists project temperatures will continue to warm The plants, animals and people that live here have adapted because of climate change caused by the burning of fossil to the cold climate and, in many cases, depend on the fuels and other sources of greenhouse gas emissions. cold to maintain the conditions they need to be successful. Regardless of global efforts to reduce emissions, the NWT Impacts from the climate warming trends now being will need to continue adapting to climate change impacts. experienced in the NWT have required adaptation actions. This report is about some of the tangible impacts from climate change that departments of the Government of the Global average surface temperatures have warmed by NWT (GNWT) are experiencing and the steps they are taking about 0.74° Celsius (C) over the past 100 years and average to adapt to those impacts. circumpolar Arctic temperatures have increased twice as fast. The NWT, especially in the Mackenzie Valley, is a During the 2007 revision of the NWT Greenhouse Gas global hot spot for climate change with average annual Strategy, developed to control emissions, stakeholders temperatures increasing about 2°C since the 1940s when strongly recommended that a companion NWT Climate records started to be collected. This increase is even more Change Adaptation Plan be developed. These stakeholders pronounced the further North you travel; for example, had been experiencing and adapting to many climate annual temperatures in Inuvik, situated at the mouth of the change impacts, especially those relating to infrastructure Mackenzie River near the Beaufort Sea, have increased by built on ice and permafrost. 3°C. 3 p GNWT INTRODUCTIONINTRODUCTION GNWT departments provided background information for this report to the Department of Environment and Natural Adaptation Resources (ENR). The report starts with a global perspective on climate change followed by sections describing the While climate change mitigation involves the reduction impacts of climate change on GNWT activities and actions of greenhouse gas emissions to lower anthropogenic departments are taking to adapt. The report concludes causes of climate change, climate change adaptation with a discussion about immediate risks and longer-term has been identified as an important mechanism to vulnerabilities, information gaps and other challenges. reduce society’s vulnerability to the effects of climate change. Climate change adaptation actions can be reactive, in response to impacts or changes that have already occurred, or proactive, in anticipation of future changes and impacts. 4 p Jennifer Skelton THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE of Climate Change Impacts Around the world people are experiencing changes to • Ocean-warming is being measured in all of the world’s their climates that are affecting their weather, ecosystems oceans. Warmer surface water temperatures disrupt and economies. The Fourth Assessment Report of the local weather patterns and many marine ecosystems. International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a Water expands when it gets warmer, contributing to description of these changes. Some of the highlights of that sea-level rise. The extra heat that has already built up in report are: water could contribute as much as 0.5°C increase in air • Extreme weather events such as flooding, tropical temperatures over the next decade as air temperatures storms, heatwaves and droughts are becoming more come into balance with the extra heat in the water. frequent and intense in many parts of the world. • Species populations and ranges of plants and animals • Increased variability in precipitation has likely in many of Earth’s ecosystems are changing, with contributed to the rise in subtropical areas affected by some species vulnerable to extinction. As well, higher drought and the increase in total precipitation at high temperatures are expected to bring an increased invasion latitudes. In addition, heavy precipitation events are more of non-native species to some regions. frequent worldwide and are causing crop damage, soil • Health effects from extreme high temperatures increase erosion, waterlogged soils and flooding. the risk of illness and death in people with heart and • Glaciers and polar ice sheets are melting due to respiratory problems. Climate change is projected to rising temperatures, causing a global rise in sea levels. encourage the movement of tropical diseases such as • Global sea-level rise of about 20 centimetres has malaria and West Nile virus northward, where populations already been measured and sea levels are expected have little or no immunity. to rise a further 18 to 59 centimetres by the end of the century due to glacial melt and warming oceans. Millions of people living at low elevations or in coastal regions may be at risk. 5 p Coastal erosion in Tuktoyaktuk – PWNHC p D. Downing/GNWT p Dene hand games – Jennifer Skelton THE GLOBAL PERSPECTIVE of Climate Change Impacts The Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA), released by • Many coastal communities and facilities face increasing the Arctic Council in 2004, provides a more detailed review exposure to storms. of climate change impacts in northern regions. This report • Reduced sea ice is very likely to increase marine transport concluded that the circumpolar Arctic region as a whole is and access to resources. experiencing some of the most rapid and severe climate • Thawing ground will disrupt transportation, buildings and change on earth. Over the next 100 years, climate change other infrastructure. is expected to accelerate, contributing to major physical, • Indigenous communities are facing major economic and ecological, social and economic changes in the Arctic, many cultural impacts. of which have already begun. Key findings of the ACIA were: • Elevated ultraviolet radiation levels will affect people, • The Arctic climate is now warming rapidly and much plants and animals. larger changes are projected. • Multiple influences interact to cause impacts to people • Arctic warming and its consequences have worldwide and ecosystems. implications. • Arctic vegetation zones are very likely to shift, causing As with the IPCC report, the ACIA report presents wide-ranging impacts. information about climate change impacts that is consistent • Animal species’ diversity, ranges and distribution will with the impacts now being seen in the NWT. change. 6 p Jennifer Skelton CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS in the Northwest Territories The Mackenzie Basin Impact Study (MBIS), a six-year The following pages detail some of the effects of climate collaborative research effort led by Environment Canada change that GNWT departments have observed and the and published in 1997, described potential climate change impacts these effects have on infrastructure, ecosystems impacts. The MBIS report concluded that lower water levels, and people. permafrost thawing and other problems caused by climate change would offset any potential benefits from future warming. Only a few early impacts were reported in MBIS such as winter road problems identified in 1992. Most of the impacts described in this report have become evident in the ten years since the MBIS was published. 7 p Permafrost degradation of highway – GNWT p Ice wedge exposed in riverbank makes ground sensitive p Lake drained due to permafrost melt at lake outlet – Julian Kanigan to climate warning – Julian Kanigan CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS in the Northwest Territories PERMAFROST Permafrost