Research Spring 2 017 Great Western Electrification: Unlocking future growth 08449 02 03 04 gva.co.uk Setting the scene 235 miles of railway to be electrified Over 100 million passengers a year are Future growth in the West of England predicted to travel on Great Western services will also be delivered through local and by 2019, according to Network Rail, in addition national infrastructure schemes that run to road and bus commuting in the region. in parallel to the electrification of the GWML. Investment in road, bus and rail networks is These include Crossrail, MetroWest, Bus Rapid essential to accommodate these growing Transit schemes and proposed investment numbers of commuters to unlock future in additional motorway junctions along the economic growth in key areas along the M49 and M4. Great Western route, ensuring our Core City Our report focuses on four key locations Region remains the only City outside of in the West of England region: Bath, Bristol, London to positively contribute to GDP. Chippenham and Swindon, all of which The electrification of the Great Western will benefit from electrification by having Main Line (GWML) will deliver a significant a commuting distance of under 90 minutes enhancement to the connectivity and capacity to London and enhanced interurban services. of services in the West of England. The project We will examine how transport connectivity, will bring new high-speed electric trains, a major local infrastructure projects, and investment in redevelopment of Bristol Temple Meads and station upgrades (to accommodate capacity Paddington Stations (to be known as Paddington and commuter flow) will play a critical role Place), and modernisation of signals and in unlocking new economic growth and stations along 235 miles of railway corridor. development hot spots in these areas. Electrification will deliver a significant enhancement to the connectivity “and capacity of services. ” 2 | Great Western Electrification gva.co.uk/research The journey Figure 1: Electrification of the Great Western Main Line route and relationship with motorway corridor Cirencester Primary rail Secondary rail Severn Rural rail Tunnel Severn Stroud Fast interurban links between English and Welsh Newport Junction Beach Future rail line M4 capital cities Bristol Wooton Kemble Parkway Bassett Jcn M49 Central The upgraded GWML will run from London to the Severn Tunnel (for Wales). This key corridor Avonmouth Swindon Didcot Cardi Bristol improving line links between London and along an east to west route provides fast Chippenham Parkway M4 the South West and to Wales. Extending from this interurban links between the English and Welsh Rail are radial routes to Oxford, the Cotswolds, capital cities. The route diverges at Wootton Portishead Reading London Birmingham and the South Coast. Bassett Junction, to the west of Swindon, Bristol Bath Spa Paddington towards Chippenham and Bath, and also Temple The core of the GWML is the high speed section Meads at Bristol Parkway towards Bristol Temple from London Paddington through the Thames Weston Meads (see figure 1). Super Valley, Swindon and Bristol Parkway, and on to Mare Source: Network Rail Timeline of infrastructure and connectivity The MetroWest Phase 1 Restoration of the Reading project to re-open the roof at Paddington redevelopment Portishead rail line to station begins Network Rail begins project completed Chippenham Station passenger train services Temple Meads Station installing new signalling Hub redevelopment Electrification to redevelopment and Swindon Bus Rapid technology to improve multi-level car park Bristol Temple Meads capacity enhancements Transit system stations from the Severn and 450 additional underway. MetroWest completed Tunnel through to Swansea parking spaces Phase 1 due to be completed 2011 2013 2015 2016 2017/2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2026 M4 Junction 18A and M49 Junction construction M4 ‘smart highway’ Work begins The Highways Agency’s £700m Arrival of Crossrail to commence Completion of MetroWest project to be to modernise project to develop the M4 into services at Phase 2 to increase services completed Reading station Improved Reading station a smart motorway between Paddington station Network Rail electrifies to Yate and new stations at opens with new platforms junctions 3 (Heathrow Airport) South Wales railway to Henbury, Ashley Down and and entrances and 12 (Theale) begins Bristol Parkway North Filton 4 | Great Western Electrification gva.co.uk/research Delayed benefits Government committed to modernising GWML Following the National Audit Office’s When the project has been delivered in full, November 2016 report, which was highly electric trains are expected to improve reliability critical of Network Rail’s management of the on some of the busiest routes as the trains project, the Government announced that it require less maintenance, reducing carbon was postponing electrification between Didcot emissions by 20-35% at the point of use Parkway and Oxford; Bristol Parkway and Bristol and improving air quality in pollution hot Temple Meads; Bath Spa and Bristol Temple spots such as city centres. Meads; and the branches to Henley and New in-cab signalling will likely improve train Windsor. The postponed work is expected performance by replacing traditional railway to move into the 2019–2024 period, when signals with a computer display inside every Network Rail will have a new funding train cab. Trains will also include a Railway agreement with the Government. Communications System (RCS) which will The Government believes that it can bring provide secure communication between improvements expected by passengers – drivers and signallers. newer trains with more capacity – without The Western Route Journey Time Improvement electrification. Nevertheless, the Government (JTI) Programme is reviewing opportunities to remains committed to modernising the reduce journey times either via a change in GWML and ensuring these improvements calling patterns, rolling stock and/or line speed are achieved. improvements. Network Rail has estimated that Key benefits from the completed electrification the journey time between London Paddington project will enhance reliability, performance and Bristol Temple Meads could see a and capacity of services. Projects completed significant reduction of 22 minutes (from 105 successfully during 2016 include the digital to 83 minutes), while the time between London upgrade of large sections of signalling to Paddington and Cardiff could be reduced by improve reliability, the modification of over up to 17 minutes (from 121 minutes to 104). 100 bridges and structures, flood alleviation Increased regularity of services and station work and improvements to the Severn Tunnel. improvements will also improve capacity and reliability on the network. Figure 2: Journey times along the Great Western Mainline London Paddington to Typical arrival time in 2016 (min) Bristol Temple Meads 105 83 22’ Estimated arrival time in 2018 (min) Journey reduction time (min) Cardiff 121 104 17’ Bristol Parkway 81 71 10’ Bath Spa 87 79 8’ Source: Department for Transport 6 | Great Western Electrification gva.co.uk/research Station name Entries & Exits 2013-14 Entries & Exits 2014-15 % increase Paddington 35,093,628 35,724,684 2% Reading 15,673,400 16,339,602 4% Bristol temple meads 9,522,840 10,099,526 6% Bath Spa 5,990,274 6,222,126 4% Chippenham 1,826,343 1,895,980 4% Swindon 3,350,444 3,503,982 5% Kemble 340,766 356,078 4% Station to station Station improvements enhance connectivity and capacity The Office of Rail and Road (ORR) found that and Wales, which will help boost the Temple the busiest station on the GWML in 2014/15 was Quarter Enterprise Zone as a destination for Paddington with almost 36,000,000 estimated innovation, creativity and digital excellence. entries and exits by commuters, followed by The ORR data found that commuter flow in 16,339,602 commuters in Reading (see figure Swindon and Chippenham stations increased 3). Both stations are undergoing improvements by 5% and 4% respectively between 2013 to enhance passenger facilities and to prepare and 2014. To improve station usage, the for the electrification scheme and Crossrail. London Paddington to Chippenham Station Hub project has been Bristol Parkway and Bristol Temple Meads awarded funding via the Swindon and Wiltshire stations both recorded a 6% rise in the number Local Enterprise Partnership to build a multi-levelTypical arrival time in 2016 (min) of commutersBristol T empleentering Meads and exiting105 between car park83 on both the north and22 south’ sides of Estimated arrival time in 2018 (min) 2013 and 2014. Bristol Temple Meads and the station with a link bridge over the railway to surrounding sites fall within the Bristol Temple allow electrification of the line. The capacity Journeyof reduction time (min) Quarter Enterprise Zone,Cardiff which is121 planned to the corridor104 between Swindon and Kemble17’ has undergo comprehensive redevelopment over been increased by redoubling the track, which the next 25 years, including a new student means trains can now head simultaneously population as BristolBristol ParkwayUniversity invests81 £300 to71 and from Kemble10 in’ Gloucestershire into million in a new campus at the former Sorting North Wiltshire. Office site – the gateway into the city. Temple Station usage in Bath Spa rose by 4% to Meads Station upgradesBath Spaare under87 preparation, 79 8’ 6,222,126 commuters between 2013 and including a plan to expand the station area and 2014.