00385243 M fJ/i ti) ! 1't3J~l '13/2413 , .(/ 0 - The Honourable Judges Marcel Lemoode and You Bunleng Co-Investigating Judges Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia Phnom Penh Cambodia Demographic Expert Reoort KHMER ROUGE VICTIMS IN CAMBODIA, APRIL 1975 - JANUARY 1979 A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT OF MAJOR ESTIMATES 30 September 2009 We, Dr. Ewa Tabeau, the chief demographer in the Office of the Prosecutor at the United Nations International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia in The Hague, the Netherlands, and Mr. They Kheam. the director of the Department for Demographic Statistics, Census and Surveys in the National Institute for Statistics of Cambodia in Phnom Penh, swear to lend our full support and assist the Co­ Investigative Judges of the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia. Marcel Lemonde and You Bunleng, faithfully, confidentially and to the best ofour knowledge. Herewith we submit our demographic expert report entitled '"Khmer Rouge Victims in Cambodia, April 1975 - January 1979. A Critical Assessment of Major Estimates", pursuant to the mission we were entrusted with as defined in the Expertise Order No. 0140, from 10 March 2009, Office of the Co-Investigative Judges, Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia. The details of the report were prepared personally by Dr. Ewa Tabeau, whereas Mr. They Kheam assisted Dr. Tabeau at all stages of the project by monitoring the progress and providing his support. Respectfully, f~r°'-. ,J;u~c Dr. Ewa Tabeau They Kheam 00385244 30 September 2009 KHMER ROUGE VICTIMS IN CAMBODIA, APRIL 1975 - JANUARY 1979 A CRITICAL ASSESSMENT OF MAJOR ESTIMATES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report was written in response to the Expertise Order No. D 140, from I 0 March 2009, Office of the Co-Investigative Judges, Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia - ECCC. The report had three major objectives: to determine the population of Cambodia on 17 April 1975 and on 7 January 1979, and the number of deaths in the intervening period to specify, where possible, the national, religious and/or ethnic origin of the deceased to identify the causes of these deaths, and determine which of these deaths were due, directly or indirectly, to policy implemented by the CPK, and which due to external factors In order to deal with these objectives, we took into account the historical, political, economic and other factors occurring around the 1970s. In our assessment we included two historical episodes: the civil war in Cambodia of March 1970 to April 1975 and the Khmer Rouge regime of April 1975 to January 1979. Our main focus was, however, on demographics of Cambodia in the period before, during and after April 1975 to January 1979, with the Khmer Rouge period being the main time interval of interest. In this report we studied statistical sources on the population of Cambodia; its size, sex- and age- structure, its fertility, mortality and migration; and sources on the death toll during the tragic decade of the 1970s. Our primary goal and the first research area was to identify excess deaths that occurred from April 1975 to January 1979, their causes, and their ethnic and religious distribution. We use the terms "excess deaths" and "death toll" as synonyms. Excess deaths relate to all those deaths that would not have occurred under normal circumstances; thus all deaths beyond mortality from "natural cause~1 Excess deaths include, first of all, direct (or violent) excess deaths, i.e. deaths of all those executed or murdered, killed in another way (e.g. in combat), missing persons, deaths from torture during interrogation, violent deaths in detention, human shields, and other direct victims. This category is called "violent" or "direct" deaths as these deaths resulted from direct violence of the Khmer Rouge regime. Secondly, excess deaths cover indirect excess deaths, i.e. those who died of starvation, overwork, lack of basic health care, poor living and sanitary conditions, forced migration, victims of mines, deaths of late effects of injuries or wounds, victims of emotional hardship etc. Our next research area was related to the identification of the population size in Cambodia in April 1975 and January 1979. The significant absolute decline in the population size between these two moments is an important indication of the enormous humanitarian crisis in the country ruled by the Khmer Rouge movement. Secondly, the size of the Cambodia population at these two moments had important practical implications for the determination of the death toll of the Khmer Rouge regime. As we showed in our report, much disagreement exits among various authors in relation to these two population sizes; so it was imperative to us to investigate and clarify this disagreement and to suggest the most likely population sizes for April 1975 and January 1979. The first half of the 1970s was by no means a peaceful period for Cambodia. The civil war broke out in the country in March 1970 and lasted until April 1975, when the Khmer Rouge took the power by 1 In demography '·natural causes" are meant for deaths from diseases and old age. External causes. such as accidents, suicide etc. are a separate category. Here, however, by "natural mortality" we understand deaths that would occur in non­ conflict circumstances. 00385245 30 September 2009 force from the Lon Nol government. During the years from March 1970 to April 1975, many Cambodians lost their lives in combat situations, from American bombings, or persecution by the Khmer Rouge, Lon Nol or Vietnamese forces. Many more lost their houses and were years long on move running away from the war, persecutions and the bombings. Thus, we also had to study the victims of the civil war and the internal and external migration in this period. This was our third important research area. The method we employed in this report was an assessment of a number of sources reporting on the above mentioned research subjects (i.e. the population and general demographic trends around the 1970s, death toll in the civil war and under the Khmer Rouge regime, and finally migration trends in the 1970s). We selected our sources on the basis of an extensive literature review on the first place; secondly we also used the materials that were provided to us by the OCIJ. With regard to the death toll, the term "source" covers in this report mainly internationally published research on the demographics and history of the Khmer Rouge regime. In addition to this, we also included among our sources projects, such as the Renakse nation-wide survey from the early 1980s into the victims of Khmer Rouge in Cambodia, and the results of the mass grave mapping project conducted by the Documentation Centre of Cambodia in Phnom Penh (DC-Cam). In total, 12 sources have been assessed in this report. The 12 sources on the death toll include estimates made in the period from January 1980 up to the most recent estimate of September 2008. The 12 sources are by no means all available in the field; several other estimates exist and could have been included as well. We believe, however, that the estimates taken for the assessment in this repo11 are the major ones and well represent other existing estimates. Taking more estimates for this review would not fundamentally change the outcome of this report. The internationally published research assessed in this report includes:2 CIA, 1980 EA MENG-TRY, 1981 KIMMO KILJUNEN (ed.), 1984 MICHAEL VICKERY, 1984 JUDITH BANISTER and PAIGE JOHNSON, 1993 MAREK SLIWINSKI, 1995 BEN KIERNAN, 1996 and 2003 PATRICK HEUVELINE, 1998; PATRICK HEUVELINE and POCH BUNNAK, 2007 CRAIG ETCHESON, 2000 and 2005 RICARDO NEUPERT and VIRAK PRUM, 2005 The national Cambodian sources assessed here are the following: DC-Cam mass grave mapping project Renakse nation-wide survey of the early 1980s The method we employed in our assessment was largely (but not exclusively) qualitative. We studied statistical and other sources used by various authors; their relevance, reliability and possible biases. We investigated the methods applied in producing the various estimates; how complex or simple they were, how subjective versus objective, whether formal or informal, whether scientifically founded and satisfying modem analytical requirements or unfounded and out-dated. Finally, we looked at the transparency of the presentation of final outcomes; most importantly we assessed here the formulation of the assumptions, models, and authors' individual inputs (based on their expertise in the subject) and the relative importance of these elements in producing the outcomes, and whether or not one's analysis can be reproduced by others. 2 Full references can be found at the end of the report in the ··List ofinternationally Published Research Assessed in This Report" 2 00385246 ,s,c;,.7J7) v . @ J~J?f 13 30 September 2009 We tried to express qualitative concepts that we were comparing in quantitative terms. That was not always easy. For this, we developed a simple scale with scores from 1 to 10 and employed this scale to all 12 sources. The result of this allowed us to assign an overall score to each source; through the overall score the sources can be compared. The scale and its results are discussed further towards the end of this summary. In our comparisons, we also had to adapt some of the original estimates, especially those produced as intervals instead of point estimates, or if more than one estimate was produced by the same author in the course of time, or estimates expressed in relative instead of absolute terms (as percentages). The approximations were necessary in order to address our findings in a clear and transparent way. Any possible discrepancies with the original estimates are ours, but we sincerely hope we did not violate authors' original intentions.