Gulf Research Center 187 Oud Metha Tower, 11th Floor, 303 Sheikh Rashid Road, P. O. Box 80758, Dubai, United Arab Emirates. Tel.: +971 4 324 7770 Fax: +971 3 324 7771 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.grc.ae First published i_m(#ÆAk pA'v@uB Gulf Research Center (_}A' !_g B/9lu( Dubai, United Arab Emirates s{4'1q {xA' 1_{4 b|5 )smdA'c (uA'f'1_B%­'=¡(/ © Gulf Research Center 2009 *_D All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a |w@_> retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, TBMFT!HSDBF¡CEudA'sGu( photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the XXXHSDBFeCudC­'?B Gulf Research Center. ISBN: 9948-434-41-2 The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) alone and do not uG_GAE#­'c`}A' state or reflect the opinions or position of the Gulf Research Center. i_m(#ÆAk pA'v@uB9f1s{5 )smdA'c (uA'f'1_B%­'cAE/ i_m(#ÆAk pA'v@uBª E#'Gvp*E#'B!v,¢#'E#'1's{5%­''tDu{xC)/_9%_(n{wG­i_m(#ÆAk pA'v@uAc8mBmA' ,L ¡dA'E#'c>EuA'&_{3A'B¢#'c}{3'(E#'c j{w*E#'cGuG{y*E#'c A"'E#'c CEudA%'eC_@c {3EE#'{4¢#_(9_,ud{3' i_m(#ÆAk pA'v@uBB`{wB¡}.0%'9{ymA'E/B`d{wA'¡>ismd{wd{3 *4#/b_dA{w{wdA'¡A_A'?uA' k pA'v@uBuCc,E9)1Eu{zA_(u`*­E @1_{xA'!'1"'9u`*1's{5%­''tD¡>)/1'==A'uA'f_,E i_m(#ÆA By publishing this volume, the Gulf Research Center (GRC) seeks to contribute to the enrichment of the reader’s knowledge out of the Center’s strong conviction that ‘knowledge is for all.’ Abdulaziz O. Sager Chairman Gulf Research Center About the Gulf Research Center The Gulf Research Center (GRC) is an independent research institute located in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE). The GRC was founded in July 2000 by Mr. Abdulaziz Sager, a Saudi businessman, who realized, in a world i_m(#ÆAk pA'v@uB of rapid political, social and economic change, (_}A' !_g B/9lu( the importance of pursuing politically neutral s{4'1q {xA' 1_{4 and academically sound research about the b|5 Gulf region and disseminating the knowledge )smdA'c (uA'f'1_B%­'=¡(/ obtained as widely as possible. The Center is *_D a non-partisan think-tank, education service |w@_> provider and consultancy specializing in the TBMFT!HSDBF¡CEudA'sGu( Gulf region. The GRC seeks to provide a better XXXHSDBFeCudC­'?B understanding of the challenges and prospects of the Gulf region. uG_GAE#­'c`}A' i_m(#ÆAk pA'v@uB9f1s{5 )smdA'c (uA'f'1_B%­'cAE/ i_m(#ÆAk pA'v@uBª E#'Gvp*E#'B!v,¢#'E#'1's{5%­''tDu{xC)/_9%_(n{wGL­i_m(#ÆAk pA'v@uAc8mBmA' , ¡dA'E#'c>EuA'&_{3A'B¢#'c}{3'(E#'c j{w*E#'cGuG{y*E#'c A"'E#'c CEudA%'eC_@c {3EE#'{4¢#_(9_,ud{3' i_m(#ÆAk pA'v@uBB`{wB¡}.0%'9{ymA'E/B`d{wA'¡>ismd{wd{3 *4#/b_dA{w{wdA'¡A_A'?uA' k pA'v@uBuCc,E9)1Eu{zA_(u`*­E @1_{xA'!'1"'9u`*1's{5%­''tD¡>)/1'==A'uA'f_,E i_m(#ÆA Contents i_m(#ÆAk pA'v@uB (_}A' !_g B/9lu( s{4'1q {xA' 1_{4 b|5 Acknowledgments ..........................................................................................11 )smdA'c (uA'f'1_B%­'=¡(/ *_D Introduction ...................................................................................................13 |w@_> TBMFT!HSDBF¡CEudA'sGu( Dr. Marat Terterov XXXHSDBFeCudC­'?B Section I: Bilateral Relations Bilateral Relations between Russia and the Gulf Monarchies: uG_GAE#­'c`}A' Past and Present ...................................................................................................... 31 i_m(#ÆAk pA'v@uB9f1s{5 )smdA'c (uA'f'1_B%­'cAE/ Dr. Andrej Kreutz ª Russian Relations with Iran and Iraq ...................................................................... 63 i_m(#ÆAk pA'v@uB E#'Gvp*E#'B!v,¢#'E#'1's{5%­''tDu{xC)/_9%_(n{wGL­i_m(#ÆAk pA'v@uAc8mBmA' , Dr. Andrej Kreutz ¡dA'E#'c>EuA'&_{3A'B¢#'c}{3'(E#'c j{w*E#'cGuG{y*E#'c A"'E#'c CEudA%'eC_@c {3EE#'{4¢#_(9_,ud{3' i_m(#ÆAk pA'v@uBB`{wB¡}.0%'9{ymA'E/B`d{wA'¡>ismd{wd{3 Russian Relations with Yemen ................................................................................ 95 Ruslan Aliev *4#/b_dA{w{wdA'¡A_A'?uA' Armenia and the Gulf States: Foreign Policy Fundamentals and Choicesk pA'v@uBuCc,E9)1Eu{zA_(u`*­E @1_{xA'!'1"'9u`*1's{5%­''tD¡>)/1'==A'uA'f_,E .............113 i_m(#ÆA Dr. Joseph A. Kéchichian Active Diplomatic Engagements and Energy Politics: The Caspian, Azerbaijan, and the Gulf Region ......................................................147 Dr. Suhnaz Yilmaz Georgia’s Relations with the States of the Gulf ......................................................163 Professor Tornike Sharashenidze Kazakhstan’s Relations with the Gulf .....................................................................183 Professor G.M. Mendikulova and T.N. Kasabayev Hidden Linkages: The Republic of Uzbekistan and the Gulf Region in a Changing World Order ...................................................................................211 Prajakti Kalra Dr. Siddharth S. Saxena Section II: Security Relations The Foundations of Russian (Foreign) Policy in the Gulf .....................................229 Professor Stephen Blank Changing Geopolitics of Eurasia and the Gulf Region: Aspects of Continuity and Change ........................................................................259 Professor Mustafa Aydin Russian-Iranian Security Links ..............................................................................283 Ingmar Oldberg The Islamic Vector in Russia’s Foreign Policy ........................................................299 Professor Alexei Malashenko Central Asian Sunni Islamic Extremism and Its Links to the Gulf .......................327 Professor Michael Fredholm Gulf States and Chechen Resistance: Between Pragmatic Love and Sincere Hate ....................................................................................................349 Dr. Dmitry Shlapentokh Russian Arms Trade with the Gulf Monarchies ....................................................371 Mikhayil Barabanov Section III: Economic Relations and Energy Issues Comparative Economic Policies and Development Strategies between Russia, the CIS and the Gulf States .........................................................393 Dr. Vladimir Kukushkin The Changing Geopolitics of Energy: Growing Oil and Gas Links between China, Russia, Central Asia and the Gulf ...............................................433 Mehmet Öğütçü and Xin Ma Emerging State Centralism in the Russian Energy Sector: Precedents from the Gulf .......................................................................................481 Justin Dargin Consideration of Russia’s Oil Supplies as an Alternative to OPEC .......................513 Professor Eugene Khartukov Dr. Ellen Starostina Investing Russia’s Oil Wealth: Sharing the GCC Experience ................................543 Andrew Rozanov Conclusion ..................................................................................................573 Dr. Marat Terterov About the Authors ........................................................................................589 Acknowledgments This study emerged out of the GRC calls for paper series in the Russian and CIS Foreign Policy Research Program in late 2006. The suggested topics in the calls for papers provided the basic structure for a more ambitious project and I would like to thank the Gulf Research Center for having the vision to allow me to develop a simple idea into something slightly more solid. I would also like to particularly thank Professor Vasiliy Vassilivich Vysokov, President of Bank Centre-Invest in Rostov- on-Don, the Russian South, for his wealth of supporting ideas in the early stages of the development of this project. I must admit that many of the chapters in the book would not have been commissioned and written, had it not been for his far-seeing input. Finally, I would like to thank the many fascinating scholars and experts who have provided their time and expertise in preparing the mainstream chapters of this book. I apologize if we have tested your patience at times, as ultimately without you, the publication of this book would not have been possible. Dr. Marat Terterov Project Editor Brussels Belgium May 2009 Gulf Research Center 11 Introduction New Partnerships and Realignments in the Evolving International System: Contemporary Relations between Russia, the CIS and the Gulf Dr. Marat Terterov Associate Fellow, Gulf Research Center, Dubai A Basis for Russia-CIS Relations with the Gulf Region Academic disciplines such as comparative or regional studies are inundated with efforts to compare and contrast different parts of the world. Scholars of most academic disciplines across the social sciences have a fondness for comparing different regions in order to evaluate why one may be developing more rapidly than another, why democracy may be stalled in one region or flourishing in another, or why the benefits foreseen by economic reform have proven less conclusive in some regions when compared to others. Despite the wide-ranging array of comparative works, a close examination of relations between Russia, the former Soviet republics and the monarchies of the Arabian Gulf is a topic which has seldom received in-depth coverage in the comparative social studies discipline. This is predominantly due to the fact that the study of their relations would not have been possible in any meaningful manner until quite recently given that relations between the former Soviet Union and the Gulf practically did not exist until the end of the Cold War. This is, to some Gulf Research Center 13 Russian and CIS Relations with the Gulf Region degree, a paradox given that the Eurasian states of the CIS