2016 ONTARIO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FISCAL REVIEWBUILDING ONTARIO UP FOR EVERYONE 2016 ONTARIO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FISCAL REVIEW ISSN 1483-5967 (PRINT) ISSN 1496-2829 (PDF /HTML) © Queen’s Printer for Ontario, 2016 The Honourable CHARLES SOUSA Minister of Finance Background Papers PERSPECTIVES ÉCONOMIQUES ET REVUE FINANCIÈRE DE L’ontARIO 2016 PERSPECTIVES ÉCONOMIQUES ET REVUE FINANCIÈRE DE L’ontARIO BUILDING ONTARIO UP FOR EVERYONE 2016 ONTARIO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND FISCAL REVIEW The Honourable CHARLES SOUSA Minister of Finance Background Papers For general inquiries regarding the Building Ontario Up for Everyone — 2016 Ontario Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review, Background Papers, please call: Toll-free English & French inquiries: 1-800-337-7222 Teletypewriter (TTY): 1-800-263-7776 For electronic copies of this document, visit our website at ontario.ca/fallupdate © Queen’s Printer for Ontario, 2016 ISSN 1483-5967 (Print) ISSN 1496-2829 (PDF/HTML) Ce document est disponible en français sous le titre : Favoriser l’essor de l’Ontario pour tous — Perspectives économiques et revue financière de l’Ontario 2016, Documents d’information Foreword Foreword Introduction Like most jurisdictions around the world, Ontario was affected by the global economic recession that began in 2008. But instead of cutting jobs and services, we created a plan to build Ontario up. We chose to improve our schools, strengthen health care and invest in modern infrastructure. We chose to support our business community so it can rise to meet the challenges of a technology‐ driven, competitive global economy. Our plan is working. Ontario’s economy has continued to grow in an uncertain global environment. More than 641,000 net new jobs have been created since the low point of the global economic recession. Our economic growth in the past two years has outpaced Canada’s, and private‐sector economists expect Ontario to continue to be a growth leader. Jobs are being created, more people are getting the training they need to participate in the workforce and the unemployment rate remains below the national average.e We led th drive to a national consensus to enhance the Canada Pension Plan, which would narrow the savings gap for millions of Canadians, especially for those who lack the security of a workplace pension plan. Our investments in infrastructure — the largest in Ontario’s history — are building better schools and hospitals. They are helping goods move faster to market, and families get home faster at night. And these investments are helping to grow the economy and create jobs. Today, children are getting a head start in their education through full‐day kindergarten. More Ontario students are graduating from high school than ever before. Two‐thirds of all Ontario adults have a postsecondary credential — a rate higher than in any country in the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD). Changes in student financial aid will now ensure that thousands of students will obtain greater access to advanced education and graduate with lower levels of student debt. iii Foreword We are providing quality health care faster and closer to home. Ninety‐four per cent of Ontarians have a family health care provider. Since 2013 alone, we have opened seven new hospitals and completed 13 significant hospital redevelopment projects. But we know that not all Ontarians are fully benefiting from our economic recovery. There are still too many Ontarians out of work or struggling to make ends meet. Even those with a steady income are concerned about everyday costs: thinking about how they will pay their monthly electricity bill, afford to send their kids to college or university or buy their first house. We believe it is our collective responsibility to ensure that everyone shares in the prosperity we are building together. As evolving economic and social realities impact how Ontarians work, live and conduct business, more than ever, a balanced plan is needed. That is our plan. It is strengthening our economic foundation and embracing the opportunities of a low‐carbon economy. It is built on our commitment to invest in the key public services on which Ontarians rely and to provide more people with access to education and training. It is helping us build a fair society and ensure everyone has the opportunity to achieve their full potential. iv Foreword Fostering a More Innovative and Dynamic Business Environment To grow the Ontario economy and create jobs, we are dedicated to fostering a dynamic, competitive business climate in which innovation thrives. From reducing regulatory burdens to lowering electricity costs to helping businesses keep pace with technological change and expand their operations, the Province is working to create the conditions for economic growth, now and in the future. As a result of the strategic steps we have taken since the global recession, Ontario offers a competitive tax environment for businesses, a highly skilled workforce and world‐class research institutions. Investors from around the world continue to view Ontario as one of the most attractive places to invest. To build on these advantages, the 2016 Budget announced our five‐year, $400 million Business Growth Initiative, which will help create an innovation‐ driven economy; scale up Ontario firms into international leaders; and modernize the regulatory system, resulting in lower business costs. This fall, we are launching new programs that will provide access to the capital, resources and expertise that small and medium‐sized enterprises need to grow into larger, export‐oriented global firms. We are also establishing an Ontario Investment Office to provide an integrated set of services to those looking to invest in our province. We have chosen to be at the forefront of the world’s transition towards a low‐carbon economy. Our five‐year Climate Change Action Plan will not only help us fight climate change, but also generate economic growth and jobs by supporting initiatives that reduce Ontario’s carbon footprint. We are modernizing our regulations and looking at how to support growing sectors. We are developing a provincial framework designed to support the expansion of the sharing economy while ensuring consumer protection. The Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) is taking an innovative approach to helping financial technology companies navigate our regulatory requirements through the OSC LaunchPad. We are also introducing legislation to establish a new, independent financial services regulator that will be more consumer‐ focused and strengthen consumer and investor protection. v Foreword Building Tomorrow’s Infrastructure Now Our government is making the largest infrastructure investment in Ontario’s history — more than $160 billion over 12 years. As a result, Ontarians will be able to access more child care spaces, study in modernized schools, learn and research in state‐of‐the‐art labs and facilities, receive service in newly renovated hospitals and travel across the province on an integrated transportation network. By making these investments today, we are helping to grow our economy, create jobs and improve the quality of life in our communities. Since the 2016 Budget, we have committed to invest more in schools and child care services. As a first step to creating 100,000 additional licensed child care spaces by 2022, we plan to invest $65.5 million this school year to support the creation of 3,400 new spaces for infants, toddlers and preschoolers. This is on top of the funding that the Province has provided in the last three years to create 56,000 new child care spaces. These investments are promoting early learning and development and helping more parents find quality, affordable care. As the second phase of our major expansion in postsecondary education infrastructure, we are building three new postsecondary sites in high‐growth communities in York, Peel and Halton Regions. We continue to move Ontario forward through investments in public transit, roads, bridges and priority infrastructure. And we are committed to creating a clean, reliable and affordable energy system. This is all part of our long‐term economic plan. vi Foreword Investing in People’s Talents and Skills In today’s competitive global economy, our biggest strength is our talent. Good, high‐paying jobs require advanced education and skills training. That is why we continue to choose to invest in high‐quality education and training and to ensure more people than ever before have the opportunity to pursue the career of their choice. From full‐day kindergarten through elementary and secondary education, we are making the necessary investments to keep our education system world class and to help students achieve their full potential. With the introduction of the Ontario Student Grant (OSG) in 2017, we are transforming student financial assistance to improve affordability and access. The OSG will make average college or university tuition free for students from families with incomes of $50,000 or less, and will make tuition more affordable for lower‐income and middle‐income families. This is an investment in our collective future, building opportunity for more people. Working with employers, educators, labour and other partners, we are developing an integrated strategy to meet the current and future needs of our dynamic economy. Our Highly Skilled Workforce Strategy will help us ensure we retain our competitive advantage of having one of the best‐educated talent pools in the world. vii Foreword Strengthening Retirement Security With two‐thirds of Ontario workers not participating in workplace pension plans and many families worried about how they will maintain their standard of living in retirement, strengthening retirement security has been a key component of our plan to build Ontario up. Our leadership on the national stage helped facilitate a historic agreement between our province, the federal government and other provinces to enhance the Canada Pension Plan. This agreement, informed significantly by Ontario’s experience in developing the Ontario Retirement Pension Plan, will improve retirement security for future generations of Canadians.