Lessons learned in the Parkstad Limburg Region (NL) Introduction Neimed is a Centre of Expertise in Demographic Changes and a joint initiative of Zuyd University of Applied Sciences and the Open University in the Netherlands. Neimed is financially supported by the Parkstad Limburg Region and the Dutch Province of Limburg. Neimed collects expertise and experiences of the various shrinking regions in the Netherlands and beyond, with a special emphasis on the City Region Parkstad Limburg. It is our mission to directly tackle the issues related to demographic change: significant population decline, ageing population, decline in the work-age population and economic challenges. At the same time, it is essential to support the quality of life of citizens and communities in shrinking areas and to identify constructive scenarios derived from the mentioned demographic processes. The aim is to develop knowledge and ideas about the quality of life in societies affected by population decline. New intervention scenarios incorporate not only public authorities, but also the multiplicity of stakeholders involved in such a complex issue: civil society agencies, local business people, housing corporations, educational institutions, care and welfare providers, cultural institutions, etc. Neimed has four core objectives: • Research-based knowledge development • Collection of information (database) • Network development • Production of innovative ideas and scenarios Neimed collects and disseminates existing knowledge and information. In addition, Neimed produces new knowledge, new scenarios and new interventions to develop the quality of life in shrinking regions. Furthermore, Neimed strongly promotes the social debate between various stakeholders about the quality of core institutions in areas affected by demographic changes. Finally, Neimed seeks cross-border and international cooperation for the realisation of these objectives and invites other research centres to join its activities. At Neimed, we try to think the other way around. Thinking about effective ways of dealing with shrinkage is like imaging the sun rising in the south and setting in the 2 north. Cross-thinking could give us unexpected points of view and refreshing solutions. This presentation is based on participant observation of politics, governmental organisations and private parties during the period 2007-2013. 3 Geographic location Parkstad Limburg Region As some of you know, the Parkstad Limburg region is situated in the utter southeast of the Netherlands. In this region, demographic decline has been the reality from the mid- 1990s up until now and it will continue to decrease in the next few decennia. In about 45 years the region will have lost about 20 percent of its 1995- population. In 2008, the regional authorities ‘realised’ demographic decline is a new political challenge. Especially in one field of regional policy: the housing policy. From that moment on, lessons were learned by doing, trying, making mistakes and celebrating successes. 4 First step The attention of the authorities in the Parkstad Limburg region was initially drawn to the explosive growth of the ageing regional population. Therefore, the authorities focused on this part of the regional demographic change. At the same time, they were not aware of the overall demographic transition and its effects on daily life and politics. Later on in the process and after having received signals from scientists, politicians acknowledged that ageing is just a single aspect of the ongoing demographic transition. Decline of the total population, shrinkage of the potential labour force, and reduction of the number of births over many years may have an even more dramatic effect on society than ageing. Initially, all attention was on the effects on the housing market. Let us call it the hardware. Later on, parties realised that demographic changes were affecting nearly every part of society. Since the regional parties did not notice the shrinkage any sooner, they did not have enough time to observe this and the linked processes. Lesson learned: All parties in every sector of society have to observe in an open-minded way and without any form of prejudice against events and developments in the relevant surroundings. Local and regional authorities are responsible for connecting the different observations and starting and facilitating the dialogue between sectors. Initially, the focus was on the effect of demographic decline on housing policy. 5 Second step Another important lesson the region learned (and unfortunately, is still learning) is to accept demographic changes as an indisputable reality. From the authorities’ point of view, shrinkage is – as we all probably know – an unwanted issue. Demographic decline has a negative connotation. Shrinkage is considered synonymous to failure. The identification with decline is hardly acceptable for politicians and decision makers. Growth, however, is identified as evidence of success. Accepting shrinkage has proven to be a very tough process and – unfortunately – mainly a rational process. Too often, the emotional touch with the phenomenon of demographic decline is absent and too often, the real awareness of shrinkage is missing. We still have to learn to embrace the process of demographic decline by heart as well as by head. This connotation was complicating the discussion as well as the search for answers. Lesson learned: Accept demographic change not only by head, but first of all by heart! Example : Although the city of Heerlen shrinks continuously, the mayor was happy to announce new growth of the population at his New Year’s speech a few years ago. It was believed to be the result of investments in the quality of life in his city. The city had returned to the world of normality, the world of growth. A few weeks later, after revision of the register of inhabitants, Heerlen had apparently shrunk instead of grown. Only a few inhabitants had left the city, but nevertheless, the mayor did not say a word! 6 Third step A lot of time had been lost by accepting shrinkage as the daily and inevitable reality. As soon as this kind of decline is truly accepted, it is possible to look forward and think about the future. On the basis of a thorough analysis, it is possible to make a realistic design of the future regional ‘world’. The lesson to be learned is staying within a realistic and sustainable framework. As authorities in Parkstad Limburg were trying to answer the problem of ageing, they thought the realisation of a silver economy was the ultimate and realistic answer to the demographic challenge. This solution, however, was not durable. Within a forty year time frame, this economy would collapse because of a shortage of old and grey inhabitants. Example : Shrinkage of the potential labour force leads to shortage of health care staff in the next years. The psycho-geriatric clinic ‘Lückerheide’ in the city of Kerkrade developed camera- supported observation with a support system for the night shift. With a relatively small investment today, the problem of staff shortage in the future will already be tackled. The work force during the night could be decreased by about 30% without reducing the quality of care. However, anticipation comes with risks! In 2009, demographic prognoses predicted a relatively quick reduction of inhabitants in the Parkstad Limburg Region. The housing program was adapted to this prognosis. As an effect of the financial crisis, migration rates dropped more or less dramatically. So the restructuring of the housing market had to be slowed down to avoid acute shortage! 7 Fourth step Maybe co-operation is the most important and even most difficult lesson to learn. In my opinion, co-operation means working together in one direction, with a common goal, in an open-minded and constructive way. In reality however, different parties are used to think in terms of competition. Rivalry was, and often is, the common definition of the relationship. Born competitors had to work together with basic trust and partnership. Working together towards shared goals. In addition to this, unusual partnerships had to be made. Possible solutions for demographic-caused challenges rarely are one- dimensional as the challenges are multi-faceted as well. Co-operation is desirable if every partner is willing to submit to the success of a partner organisation. In the Parkstad Limburg situation, real co-operation based on equality is a dream for some and a nightmare for others. Building relationships based on confidence in each other’s capacities and intentions seems to be a very hard and difficult to achieve goal. The region of Parkstad Limburg knows this lesson is still to be learned, but seems to lack the capacity to learn this lesson. Lesson learned : Acting in one part of society reflects on other parts of society. Managing the interaction between people and institutions is probably the most important and most difficult task local and regional politicians have to do. Example : Within the region, 9 social housing companies are committed to one single regional housing planning. In Parkstad Limburg the number of houses has to be reduced with about 5.500 units by 2020! 8 Fifth step Once you know what is happening and in how you want to react, you have to act. An immediate reaction was needed after the challenge was recognised in Parkstad Limburg. While you act, keep taking note of what is happening around you. In Parkstad Limburg shrinkage decreased, mainly due to the stagnation on the housing and financial markets. As a result of this decrease, the urban transition of the region has to slow down. Nevertheless, restructure of the housing market in the region has to go on, a bit slower, but steady and focused on the bright spot on the horizon. Lesson learned: The Parkstad Limburg region learned to act in order to make or keep the region attractive to its own inhabitants (ambassadors) and to those who visit the region. And even more important: the region kept acting, even in times of less urgency.