U.S. Department Advisory of Transportation Federal Aviation Administration Circular Subject: High Fidelity Flight Safety Analysis Date: 10/15/2020 AC No: 450.115-1 Initiated By: AST-1 This Advisory Circular (AC) provides guidance and a comprehensive method for performing a high fidelity flight safety analysis in accordance with title 14 of the Code of Federal Regulations (14 CFR) § 450.115. A flight safety analysis is required for launch and reentry in accordance with § 450.113(a). AC 450.113-1, Level of Fidelity, provides guidance on when a high fidelity flight safety analysis is needed and how to determine the level of fidelity that is required. In situations when a high fidelity flight safety analysis is needed, this AC 450.115-1 provides guidance for performing that analysis in compliance with § 450.115(b). A high fidelity flight safety analysis may be required by § 450.115(b) for a particular phase or for all phases of flight. An operator’s flight safety analysis method must account for all reasonably foreseeable events and failures of safety-critical systems during nominal and non-nominal launch or reentry that could jeopardize public safety, in accordance with § 450.115(a). In accordance with § 450.115(b)(1), the analysis must demonstrate that any risk to the public satisfies the safety criteria of § 450.101, including the use of mitigations, and account for all known sources of uncertainty, using a means of compliance accepted by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). The analysis must identify the dominant source of each type of public risk with a criterion in §§ 450.101(a) or 450.101(b) in terms of phase of flight, source of hazard (such as toxic exposure, inert, or explosive debris), and failure mode, in accordance with § 450.115(b)(2). The FAA considers this AC an accepted means of compliance for complying with the regulatory requirements of § 450.115(b). It presents one, but not the only, acceptable means of compliance with the associated regulatory requirements. This AC assists with performing a high fidelity flight safety analysis. The contents of this document do not have the force and effect of law and are not meant to bind the public in any way. The document is intended only to provide clarity to the public regarding existing requirements under the law or agency policies. If you have suggestions for improving this AC, you may use the Advisory Circular Feedback form at the end of this AC. Wayne R. Monteith Associate Administrator Commercial Space Transportation 10/15/2020 AC 450.115-1 Contents Paragraph Page 1 Purpose .......................................................................................................................................1 2 Applicability ..............................................................................................................................2 3 Applicable Regulations and Related Documents .......................................................................2 4 Definition of Terms....................................................................................................................5 5 Overview. ...................................................................................................................................6 6 Mission Definition and Hazard Identification ...........................................................................8 6.1 Mission Description ..........................................................................................................8 6.2 Identifying Hazards and Hazard Producing Events ........................................................13 6.3 Hazard Management to Minimize Public Risk ...............................................................14 7 Hazardous Debris Characterization .........................................................................................15 7.1 Developing Hazardous Debris Lists for Range Safety Analyses ....................................15 7.2 Effect of Type of Vehicle Breakup on Hazardous Debris List....................................... 19 7.3 Effect of Vehicle Structural Characteristics and Materials on Breakup Hazardous Debris List .......................................................................................................................22 7.4 Effect of Energetics in the Vehicle on Breakup on Hazardous Debris List ....................23 7.5 Steps for Developing Hazardous Debris Fragment Lists ................................................26 7.6 Hazardous Debris Containing Toxic Material ................................................................30 8 Aerodynamic and Harmful Debris Characteristics ..................................................................30 8.1 Ballistic Coefficients .......................................................................................................30 8.2 Drag Coefficient Estimates for Continuum Flow ...........................................................31 8.3 Drag in Transitional and Free Molecular Flow Regimes ................................................32 8.4 Lift uncertainty................................................................................................................33 8.5 Required Information in the Hazardous Debris Model ...................................................34 8.6 Consideration for Grouping Hazardous Debris to a Hazardous Debris Group ..............35 8.7 Description of the Hazardous Debris Group ...................................................................35 9 Propagation of Hazardous debris to Impact .............................................................................39 9.1 Atmospheric Data for Propagation .................................................................................40 9.2 Failure and Planned Event State Vectors ........................................................................42 9.3 Statistical Trajectory Set .................................................................................................46 9.4 Ballistic Trajectory Generation .......................................................................................47 9.5 Residual Thrust ...............................................................................................................49 ii 10/15/2020 AC 450.115-1 Contents (continued) Paragraph Page 9.6 Directed Lift ....................................................................................................................50 9.7 Progressive Breakup and Breakup Fragment Shedding..................................................50 9.8 Hazardous Debris Demise ...............................................................................................51 10 Impact Probability Distribution ...............................................................................................51 10.1 Impact Probability ...........................................................................................................51 10.2 Gaussian Distribution......................................................................................................52 10.3 Skewed Distribution........................................................................................................52 10.4 Histogram Distribution ...................................................................................................53 10.5 3-dimensional Impact Probability ...................................................................................54 11 Consequence Modeling ............................................................................................................54 11.1 Types of Consequences...................................................................................................55 11.2 Inert Hazardous Debris ...................................................................................................57 11.3 Unsheltered People .........................................................................................................58 11.4 Casualty Areas ................................................................................................................61 11.5 Probability of Casualty Area ...........................................................................................63 11.6 Potential for Roof Penetration ........................................................................................63 11.7 People in Waterborne Vessels (Ships) ............................................................................68 11.8 People in Aircraft ............................................................................................................70 11.9 Explosive Hazardous Debris ...........................................................................................72 11.10 Yield Models .......................................................................................................73 11.11 Liquid Propellant Yield.......................................................................................74 11.12 Solid Propellant Yield .........................................................................................75 11.13 Sympathetic Yields from Multiple Motors .........................................................78 11.14 Impacting Propellants for Unsheltered People ...................................................79 11.15 Blast Wave Overpressure ....................................................................................79 11.16 People in Structures ............................................................................................82