24 June 2016 Asia Pacific/Australia Equity Research Australian ESG/SRI Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Research What keeps our bank analysts awake at night? ■ What keeps our bank analysts awake at night? We've teamed up with our banking analysts and taken a look at the commercial banking sector, identifying the top ESG risks and the impact of key megatrends. Their immediate concerns relate to social and regulatory risks – particularly the potential for a banking Royal Commission (creating uncertain but potentially far-reaching implications) and possible class-action damages that could follow on from successful ASIC litigation alleging BBSW market rigging. We see a Royal Commission as a volatile risk for the sector, creating a key event catalyst following the Federal election on 2 July 2016, almost Credit Suisse Environmental, Social regardless of who is elected. A much more infrequent (and essentially and Governance (ESG) research seeks unsolvable) social risk is the inherent vulnerability of systemically important to focus on sustainability and banks (their high equity gearing creates the risk of solvency issues accountability factors that are then emerging during periods of financial stress) rendering the prospect of a integrated into the investment process. taxpayer funded bail-out a perennial theme for the industry (if rarely ever Research Analysts visited in practice). ESG Research Sandra McCullagh ■ What makes our bank analysts happy? Cyber-security risks aside, the 61 2 8205 4729 [email protected] advent of a multi-polar world opens up new banking markets (international Zoe Whitton wholesale banking/trade finance) and new labour sourcing opportunities 61 2 8205 4613 (offshoring). Banks are also net beneficiaries of technology, continuing to [email protected] Banks Research drive multi-decade productivity improvements into the future (rather than IT Jarrod Martin heralding dis-intermediation of banks per se). 61 2 8205 4334 [email protected] ■ Our major bank order of preference: Our banking team's order of James Ellis 61 2 8205 4531 preference is as follows: WBC (OUTPERFORM), NAB (OUTPERFORM), [email protected] CBA (OUTPERFORM), ANZ (NEUTRAL). Brendon Ferreira 61 2 8205 4072 [email protected] Figure 1: Bank sector exposure to ESG Environmental Description ANZ.AX BEN.AX BOQ.AX CBA.AX MQG.AX NAB.AX WBC.AX Financials environmental risks Warning No Value No Value Warning Warning Warning Warning Social Description ANZ.AX BEN.AX BOQ.AX CBA.AX MQG.AX NAB.AX WBC.AX Social licence to operate Warning Warning Warning Warning Warning Warning Warning Changes in Regulatory Pricing or Policy Warning Warning Warning Warning Warning Warning Warning Governance Description ANZ.AX BEN.AX BOQ.AX CBA.AX MQG.AX NAB.AX WBC.AX Unethical conduct & Instability Warning No Value No Value Warning No Value Warning Warning Source: Company Data, Credit Suisse estimates DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 24 June 2016 Summary ■ Social issues are the primary ESG pain point for Australian banks—particularly social licence to operate. A damaged licence to operate opens banks to material regulatory risk and, as such, in our view, the most material ESG issues are those which impact this licence. Australian banks have struggled to protect their licence to operate and are now facing a regulatory unknown in the form of a possible banking Royal Commission. ■ Environmental and Governance issues are in our view most material where they exacerbate these social risks. The still-unfolding BBSW investigations are a topical example of a governance risk which has become a source of reputational damage, in turn introducing regulatory risk. Similarly, although banks are relatively emissions efficient, their financed emissions (which we do not view as commercially significant) remain a public relations sore-point. ■ Solvency risk is the ever-present tail-risk in banking. In our view, the ultimate social issue for banks is the prospect of a taxpayer funded bailout following periods of financial stress. The propensity of financial cycles to create credit-fuelled asset price bubbles presents the risk of recurring periods of acute stress for banks. Given their low return on assets, banks necessarily carry high equity gearing in order to generate an acceptable ROE and attract external capital. Thin capitalisation can easily become overwhelmed following a bad debt cycle or period of risk build-up, and governments are reluctant to allow depositor funds to be lost in bankruptcy. This has not been an issue for Australian banks for a great many years (in contrast to their international peers) but we view it as a perennial but presently low ESG risk for the sector. ■ In our view, banks have an overall positive exposure to megatrends. Ageing has the potential to shift the product mix for banks, which would be positive as long as they maintain their exposure to wealth and asset management. Banks have positive exposure to a global workforce and technology, having historically been successful utilising both to support productivity. However, banks do face downsides on these fronts – through the risk of cyber-crime and through the reputational risks associated with offshoring. Cyber-security in particular presents a growing risk for banks, which have been a primary target for cyber-crime and rely heavily on digital systems. ■ Social licence to operate the headline risk for the big four. In our view, the major banks are more exposed to the social licence and regulatory risks outlined above than the regional banks and (perhaps) MQG, largely thanks to their visibility. These organisations bank the vast majority of Australian customers, and are perceived by the community as providing what is effectively public infrastructure and service. As such, we view the major banks as more exposed to risk on this front. Running conduct and culture issues feed into this headline social risk. As the big four banks are essentially similar businesses, from an ESG stand-point their exposure does not differ materially except in a couple of cases. ■ Smaller exposures for BEN and BOQ. BEN and BOQ face similar risks to the big four and are influenced by similar megatrends. In the case of risks we see these banks as slightly less exposed. This is mainly as a consequence of their lower public profiles and lesser propensity to become a target for ire or to be seen as representatives of the industry in general. They also finance fewer emissions, and as such bear less reputational risk on this front. ■ MQG with greater exposure to the ageing megatrend, lesser exposure to social and regulatory risks. MQG also faces similar risks to the big four and is influenced by similar megatrends. However, the more diversified structure of MQG's business lowers its relative exposure to commercial banking risks. MQG is also perceived more as an investment bank by the Australian public, and as such we consider the dynamics Australian ESG/SRI 2 24 June 2016 around social licence to operate slightly differently (and less negatively). MQG also has greater exposure to the ageing megatrend thanks to its more significant asset management and wealth management business. Figure 2: Bank sector exposure to ESG and megatrends ESG Environmental Description ANZ.AX BEN.AX BOQ.AX CBA.AX MQG.AX NAB.AX WBC.AX Financials environmental risks Warning No Value No Value Warning Warning Warning Warning Social Description ANZ.AX BEN.AX BOQ.AX CBA.AX MQG.AX NAB.AX WBC.AX Social licence to operate Warning Warning Warning Warning Warning Warning Warning Changes in Regulatory Pricing or Policy Warning Warning Warning Warning Warning Warning Warning Governance Description ANZ.AX BEN.AX BOQ.AX CBA.AX MQG.AX NAB.AX WBC.AX Unethical conduct & Instability Warning No Value No Value Warning No Value Warning Warning Megatrends Demographic Description ANZ.AX BEN.AX BOQ.AX CBA.AX MQG.AX NAB.AX WBC.AX Ageing Positive Positive Positive Positive Strong Positive Positive Positive Multi-Polar World Description ANZ.AX BEN.AX BOQ.AX CBA.AX MQG.AX NAB.AX WBC.AX Global workforce Positive Positive Positive No Value Positive Positive Positive Sustainability Description ANZ.AX BEN.AX BOQ.AX CBA.AX MQG.AX NAB.AX WBC.AX Emerging risks Negative Negative Negative Negative Negative Negative Negative Technology Description ANZ.AX BEN.AX BOQ.AX CBA.AX MQG.AX NAB.AX WBC.AX Technology Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive Internet of Everything Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive Positive Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimates Australian ESG/SRI 3 24 June 2016 Figure 3: Megatrends by category The use of digital infrastructure for the provision of services such as waste management, transportation, security, building Smart cities management, energy & health This is focussed on the continued urbanisation of emerging markets driving the need for greater housing, infrastructure Construction and also the replacement