The Australian Greens: Realignment Revisited in Australia Todd Farrell Submitted in fulfilment for the requirements of the Doctorate of Philosophy Swinburne University of Technology Faculty of Health, Arts and Design School of Arts, Social Sciences and Humanities 2020 ii I declare that this thesis does not incorporate without acknowledgement any material previously submitted for a degree in any university or another educational institution and to the best of my knowledge and belief it does not contain any material previously published or written by another person except where due reference is made in the text. iii ABSTRACT Scholars have traditionally characterised Australian politics as a stable two-party system that features high levels of partisan identity, robust democratic features and strong electoral institutions (Aitkin 1982; McAllister 2011). However, this characterisation masks substantial recent changes within the Australian party system. Growing dissatisfaction with major parties and shifting political values have altered the partisan contest, especially in the proportionally- represented Senate. This thesis re-examines partisan realignment as an explanation for party system change in Australia. It draws on realignment theory to argue that the emergence and sustained success of the Greens represents a fundamental shift in the Australian party system. Drawing from Australian and international studies on realignment and party system reform, the thesis combines an historical institutionalist analysis of the Australian party system with multiple empirical measurements of Greens partisan and voter support. The historical institutionalist approach demonstrates how the combination of subnational voting mechanisms, distinctly postmaterialist social issues, federal electoral strategy and a weakened Labor party have driven a realignment on the centre-left of Australian politics substantial enough to transform the Senate party system. Exploratory factor analysis of divisional-level voting data from both houses between 1987-2019 is used to identify changing voting patterns. The thesis then examines Australian Election Study data between 1987-2016 to identify demographic and attitudinal bases for Greens partisanship and voting behaviour, employing multinomial logistic regression to demonstrate the significance and distinctiveness of Greens support compared to the major parties. The institutional analysis and behaviouralist methodologies demonstrate that the Australian party system has produced a small but significant realignment that has solidified the Greens as a distinct party, especially within the Australian Senate. Realignment has come iv primarily from converting former Australian Labor Party support among a cohort of young, university educated, non-religious postmaterialists with distinct attitudes on asylum seekers and the environment. While the contest for government remains framed by a two-party paradigm, multiparty dynamics have consolidated in the Senate. This has resulted in the Greens emerging as a viable component of the Australian party-system and a durable ‘third force’ that will remain for the foreseeable future. v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This thesis was the work of one person, but there were many more who went on the same journey. To my family, particularly my Mother for putting up with hearing the latest daily political news and supporting me through all my academic endeavours. For academic personnel, I would like to thank Professors Brian Costar and Michael Leach for their help in supervising and providing the boundless resources required for understanding Australian politics. Special thanks also go to Denny Meyer for help in refreshing my statistics knowledge and advice for some of my statistics questions. I would also like to thank my fellow 400B PhD candidates Bec, Cameron, Sarah, Chris, Gillian, Gerard, Ivana, Alena, Julie, James, Dimity and Nick for their support, lunches and especially drinks over the years. Most importantly, I would like to give all my thanks to my Principle Coordinating Supervisor Damon Alexander for everything he has done the past three years, including many coffee meetings, sessional work and his undying patience in supervising this project. This would definitely not have happened without you. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Declaration............................................................................................................................................. ii Abstract ................................................................................................................................................. iii Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................... v Table of Contents ................................................................................................................................. vi List of Figures ....................................................................................................................................... ix List of Tables ........................................................................................................................................ xi List of abbreviations .......................................................................................................................... xiv Introduction ........................................................................................................................................... 1 Research aims ................................................................................................................................... 3 Thesis approach ................................................................................................................................ 6 Thesis structure ............................................................................................................................... 11 Chapter 1: Realignment: Conception, definition and application ................................................. 17 Conceptual history of realignment .................................................................................................. 18 Theoretical criticisms ...................................................................................................................... 24 Alternative concepts to critical realignment .................................................................................. 28 Dealignment ............................................................................................................................ 28 Divided government ................................................................................................................ 30 Realignment today .......................................................................................................................... 32 Realignment outside America ......................................................................................................... 35 Realignment in Australia ......................................................................................................... 38 Approaching realignment in Australia ............................................................................................ 42 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................... 46 Chapter 2: Party systems: theoretical underpinnings and the postmaterialist thaw.................... 48 Party system typologies .................................................................................................................. 49 Social cleavages .............................................................................................................................. 52 The electoral institution and maintenance of party systems ........................................................... 58 Party identification .......................................................................................................................... 62 Postmaterialism and value change in party systems ....................................................................... 66 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................... 71 Chapter 3: The Australian party system part I: Stability (1901-1975) .......................................... 73 Traditional political parties in Australia ......................................................................................... 75 vii Centre-periphery: The federal compromise and small state tensions ..................................... 76 Labour-capital: The two-party system solidified .................................................................... 79 Rural-Urban: The Coalition and institutionalised agrarianism of The Nationals ................... 86 Church-state: Keeping the bastards out and the Democratic Labour Party ............................ 92 Conclusion ...................................................................................................................................... 95 Chapter 4: The Australian Party System Part II: Change (1976-2019) ........................................ 98 The picture of change ................................................................................................................... 100 Australian party classifications ...................................................................................................