research Journal Vol. IX APRIL 2018 research Journal Vol. usrussia.stanford.edu THE STANFORD US-RUSSIA FORUM US-RUSSIA STANFORD THE The Stanford US-Russia Forum ∙ Research Journal ∙ Vol. IX ∙ April 2018 THE STANFORD US-RUSSIA FORUM RESEARCH JOURNAL VOL. IX, APRIL 2018 Edited by Alexis Lerner For reprints please contact [email protected] The Stanford US-Russia Forum Encina Hall, Stanford University 616 Serra Drive Stanford, CA 94305 www.usrussia.stanford.edu © 2018 Alexis Lerner. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system without the prior written permission of the publisher. Cover: Red Square, Moscow ISBN-13: 978-0-9896006-2-0 Printed in the United States of America THE STANFORD US-RUSSIA FORUM RESEARCH JOURNAL VOL. IX, APRIL 2018 Edited by Alexis Lerner THE STANFORD US-RUSSIA FORUM A PREVENTIVE DEFENSE PROJECT INITIATIVE Stanford, California Waiver or Not? Considerations of NSG Membership for Non-NPT States and Prospects for US-Russia Cooperation 01 Frameworks to Advance Arctic Wind Development through US-Russia Collaboration 13 Rebuilding the Cyber Bridge of Confidence toward Establishing Bilateral Behavioral Norms for US-Russia Cooperation 23 Electronic Health Records in the United States and Russia: Challenges and Opportunities for Collaborative Leadership 31 Nation-State Adoption of Distributed Ledger Technology: How Blockchain Will Remake Traditional Nation-State Relationships 37 Promoting Business Attractiveness for the Tech Sector in Russia: Lessons from the United States and China 45 Permafrost Degradation and Coastal Erosion in the US and Russia: Opportunities for Collaboration in Addressing Shared Climate Change Impacts 57 Lessons Learned from the ISS: Enabling Future Spaceflight Collaboration for the US and Russia Stanford US-Russia Forum Journal Volume IX, April 2018 65 ARMS CONTROL Alexander Chekov, Nadya Maslennikova, Libiao Pan, Melissa Samarin, and Shana Wu ENERGY Valentina Bonello, Maxim Glagolev, and Katherine Weingartner SECURITY Andrew Carroll, Elvira Chache, and Tinatin Japaridze HEALTHCARE Brian T. Cheng, Alexandr A. Kalinin, and Marina Pokrovskaya FINTECH Jules Hirschkorn, Alexei Levanov, Anton Titov, Ryan Williams TRADE Tatiana Aleksandrina, Colton Cox, Kirill Protasov, and Boguang Yang CLIMATE Chelsea L. Cervantes de Blois, Ilya Stepanov, Kirill Vlasov, and Ellen Marguerite Ward SPACE Louise Fleischer, Carolina Moreno Aguirre, and Johannes Norheim STANFORD SURF Team EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR Ravi Patel PROGRAM DIRECTORS Nelson Zhao Pavel Yakushev Preface: From the Leadership DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH On behalf of the Stanford US-Russia Forum (SURF), we would like to welcome you to Alexis Lerner our program’s tenth year. SURF’s core mission is to develop the next generation of future leaders in US-Russia engagement through substantive discussion, research, and collaboration while generating innovative solutions to issues of mutual impor- PROGRAM OFFICERS tance for both countries. More than 400 students from over 85 universities have par- Kyle Duchynski ticipated since SURF’s 2008 inception. Each year the program brings 40 students from both countries together to at- Pavel Kuznetsov tend a weeklong conference in Russia in the fall, conduct research with their work- ing group peers over the academic year, and ultimately present their work at a Andrey Bakalenko capstone conference at Stanford University in the spring. More than half of the par- ticipants are graduate students, bringing maturity and experience to complement the enthusiasm of undergraduate team members. Research themes include topics SPECIAL THANKS in international relations, the sciences, business and entrepreneurship, regional WIlliam J. Perry and humanitarian issues, and others. Started as a student initiative, SURF also em- phasizes leadership experience and gives student leaders a role in organizing ele- George P. Shultz ments of the program. SURF’s mission has strong roots in the idea of track two diplomacy, the unoffi- Michael McFaul cial, informal interaction between private citizens that can help guide policymakers Deborah Gordon towards diplomatic conflict resolution and improved relations. The young leaders who comprise the SURF delegation are actively helping break down the boundar- Kathryn Stoner ies between research and policy change, bridging the gap by engaging directly with those in positions of influence. Now more than ever, the geopolitical situation be- Matthew Rojansky tween the US and Russia highlights the critical need for this type of dialogue. Olga Miller We are incredibly grateful to Renova USA and Renova Fort Ross Foundation, sponsors who make SURF possible. Thanks to their ongoing support we have been Alexei Sitnikov able to expand the SURF program, including adding a segment in Washington DC for this year’s delegation. We hope you enjoy reading the research put together by our Anatoly Antonov delegates this year! Jon Huntsman Jr. Thank you for your interest in our efforts, Sergei Petrov Edmund G. Brown Jr. Vladimir Yakushev Ravi Patel Kenneth Martinez Executive Director Preface | vii From the Editor Dear Readers, It is with great pleasure that I introduce the 2018 edition of the Stanford US-Russia Forum’s annual publication. In this issue, we bring together 28 sharp, young scholars from around the world to unpack complex issues related to US-Russia relations, while also fostering bi-national dialogue. Drawing from diverse linguistic, cultural, and professional backgrounds, these del- egates worked collaboratively and tirelessly on the eight excellent articles included in this issue. By thinking critically about the fortification of existing ties in finance, trade, and security, to the prospects for cooperation in environment, technology, and healthcare, these eight pieces flow together seamlessly, creating an optimistic narrative about US-Russia relations in a time of increased conflict. Our journal starts with authors Alexander Chekov, Libiao Pan, Melissa Samarin, Nadya Maslennikova, and Shana Wu, in their exploration of the long-term consequences of criteria-based admission — an approach supported by both the United States and Russia — to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). In particular, these authors focus on the cases of India and Paki- stan, two states that have not signed the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and the potential ramifications of their admission to the NSG. The second article, written by Valentina Bonello, Maxim Glagolev, and Katherine Weingartner, asks how the US and Russia can mitigate high energy supply costs and the risks associated with supply disruptions in their Arctic regions. They conclude by recommending that regional actors unite to support renewable wind energy, in order to increase the resiliency of diesel-dependent energy systems in light of the Arctic’s thawing permafrost. From here, Andrew Carroll, Tinatin Japaridze, and Elvira Chache explore the psychological priors that prevent coop- eration in the field of cyber-operations. They argue that the problems of cybersecurity and cyber-deterrence can only be overcome if both sides can humanize the other, thereby dissipating tensions and the further escalation of conflict, both within and beyond the cyber-sphere. In our fourth article, Marina Pokrovskaya, Brian Cheng, and Alexandr Kalinin evaluate the use of electronic health records, which have emerged in both the United States and Russia as a technological solution to facilitate the continuity of care and to improve population health. The group argues that sharing best practices regarding electronic health records presents an apolitical avenue for US-Russia collaboration. Our next pair of articles cover technological developments in the US and Russia. Representing a new SURF venture into financial technologies, Jules Hirschkorn, Alexei Levanov, Anton Titov, and Ryan Williams explore distributed ledger technol- ogy and its potential use to centralized governments and authorities at the nation-state level. Ultimately, they conclude, blockchain-type technologies represent a massive technological disruption that will likely benefit early adopters and re- shape global norms, as did the Internet in its early days. Considering more ‘traditional’ business ventures like manufacturing and entrepreneurism, Tatiana Aleksandrina, Colton Cox, Kirill Protasov, and Boguang Yang evaluate the innovation ecosys- tems of Moscow, Tatarstan, and Tyumen region. Utilizing the case studies of technological innovation in Silicon Valley and manufacturing production in Shenzhen, they outline how states can write policies that help firms to overcome common roadblocks, increase investment, and foster a robust digital sector. Our last two articles concern the state of our planet and what lies beyond. Writing on the topic of permafrost degradation and coastal erosion, Chelsea Cervantes de Blois, Kirill Vlasov, Ilya Stepanov, and Ellen Ward propose that the United States and Russia cooperate at the subnational level to protect their northern territories. They note that the US and Russia are among the main contributors to, and countries most impacted by, Climate Change. This reality places these two countries in a unique position to prevent further environmental degradation, both domestically and abroad. In the final article in our journal, Louise Fleischer, Carolina Moreno Aguirre, and Johannes Norheim discuss the future of space collaboration