Report Number 5 October 1986 FEWS Country Report CHAD Africa Bureau U.S. Agency for International Development Map1 CHAD: Summary L i b y f:J3 Area of highest risk B.E.T. Areas awaiting aerial pest control S u Early variety millet _ heading in August DAEILTINE/ 15 Deg N __ ° 4- -.. / 14 Deg N Millet and short-cycle sorghum N l&" heading in August N i g e r i a SA"L_<M . Long-cycle millet and sorghum zr in stalk elongation stage LOGO.,- in August O NE SCameroon ( a/e Famine Early Warning System Country Report CHAD Harvest Prospects Good, Pockets of Stress Prepared for the Africa Bureau of the U.S. Agency for International Development Prepared by Price, Williams & Associates, Inc. October 1986 Contents Page i Introduction 1 Summary 1 Rainfall and Vegetation 2 Map 2 3 Pests 4 Maps 3, 4, 5 9 Agriculture 10 Map e 12 Maps 7 &8 13 Graphs 1 & 2 14 Food Flows/Needs 14 Populations At-Risk 16 Appendix I 17 Appendix II 20 Figure 1 21 Figure 2 Inside Back Cover Map 9 INTRODUCTION This is the fifth of a series of monthly reports issued by the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) on Chad. It is designed to provide decisionmakers with curre~nt infor­ mation and analysis on existing and potential nutrition emergency situations. Each situation identified is described in terms of geographical extent a:nd the number of people involved, or at-risk, and the pro::imate causes insofar as they have been discerned. Use of the term "at-risk" to identify vulnerable popu­ lations is problematical since no generally agreed upon definition exists. Yet it is necessary to identify or "target" populations in-need or "at-risk" in order to determine appropriate forms and levels of intervention. Thus for the present, until a better usage can be found, FEWS reports will employ the term "at-risk" to mean... ...those persons lacking sufficient food, or resources to acquire sufficient food, to avert a nutritional crisis, i.e., a progressive deterioration in their health or nutritional condition below the status quo and who, as a result, require specific intervention to avoid a life-threatening situation. Perhaps of most importance to decisionmakers, the process underlying the deteriorating situation is highlighted by the FEWS effort, hopefully with enough specificity and forewarning to permit alternative intervention strategies to be examined and implemented. Food assistance stra­ tegies are key to famine avoidance. How.zver, other types of intervention can be of major importance both in the short-term and in the long-run, including medical, trans­ port, storage, economic development policy change, etc. Where possible, food needs estimates are included in the FEWS reports. It is important to understand, however, that no direct relation exists between numbers of persons at-risk and the quantity of food assistance needed. This is because famines are the culmination of slow-onset disaster processes which can be complex in the extreme. The food needs of individual populations at-risk depend upon when in the disaster process identification is made and the extent of its cumulative impact on the indivi­ duals concerned. Further, the amount of food assistance required, whether from internal or external sources, depends upon a host of considerations. Thus the food needs estimates presented periodically in FEWS reports should not be interpreted to mean rood aid needs, e.g., as under PL480 or other donor programs. FEWS is operated by AID's Office of Technical Resources in the Bureau for Africa in cooperation with numerous USG and other organizations. ii SUMMARY The harvest prospects for Chad look good this year. Satellite imagery for Chad shows most areas to be greener than the average for the previous five years. Rainfall has continued in most of the areas below 14 degress north latitude (N), supporting the maturation of cereal crops. Crops north oC 12N are still vulnerable to pest infesta­ tions, whicl. could reduce yields dramatically in indivi­ dual locations, depending oni the timing and effectiveness of pest control programs. Isolated at-risk populations remain due t.) irregular, spotty rainfall (northern Biltine Prefecture), or a combination of lack of rain and presence of insect pests (eight villages in and near N'Gouri Sub-prefecture, Lake Prefecture, Map 2). Issues o While the grasshopper/locust control program has begun in Lake, Kanem, and Chari-Baguirmi Prefectures (locat­ ion of the villages named as at very high risk by AEDES (European Agency for Development and Health), a shortage of equipment, especially functioning fixed­ wing aircraft, has delayed contro! efforts in the rest of the country. o At-risk populatiuns in Lake, Kanem and Chari-Baguirmi Prefectures may need food-aid intervention. Pockets of agricultural stress along the northern boundary of the cropping zone, esoecially toward the east, will require further monitoring to determine whether an at-risk situation exists. Key October Events o October is the month of grain harvests. The quantity and geographic distribution of the harvest of the various crops will determine any food deficit areas in Chad in the coming year. o The grasshopper control program should conclude from late October to mid-November as you move south from 14N. 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