Knowledge Partner INDIAN CIVIL AVIATION At the Cusp of Taking off TITLE Indian Civil Aviation - At the Cusp of Taking off YEAR August, 2015 Corporate Finance (CF) Group, YES BANK AUTHORS Strategic Government Advisory (SGA), YES BANK No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form by photo, photoprint, COPYRIGHT microfilm or any other means without the written permission of YES BANK Ltd. and ASSOCHAM. This report is the publication of YES BANK Limited (“YES BANK”) and ASSOCHAM and so YES BANK and ASSOCHAM has editorial control over the content, including opinions, advice, statements, services, offers etc. that is represented in this report. However, YES BANK and ASSOCHAM will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by the reader’s reliance on information obtained through this report. This report may contain third party contents and third-party resources. 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Rawat Corporate Finance Secretary General Pawan Kumar Agrawal 5, Sardar Patel Marg President and Regional Business Leader - Chanakyapuri Corporate Finance New Delhi - 110021 Nikhil Sahni Tel : +91 11 4655 0555 Senior President - Fax : +91 11 2301 7008/9 Government Relationship Management & Email : [email protected] Strategic Government Advisory Website : www.assocham.org Registered and Head Office CONTACTS 9th Floor, Nehru Centre, Dr. Annie Besant Road, Worli, Mumbai - 400 018 Tel : +91 22 6669 9000 Fax : +91 22 2497 4088 Northern Regional Office 48, Nyaya Marg, Chanakyapuri New Delhi – 110 021 Tel : +91 11 6656 9000 Email : [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Website : www.yesbank.in FOREWORD As India enters the next phase of economic growth, a major overhaul of our aviation sector is critical to complement the needs of our growing economy. Aviation has played a vital role in facilitating growth of business and economy in India, but there is still significant scope for improvement and penetration. Indian Aviation, the 9th largest civil aviation market valued at INR 96,000 Crore, is on a high-growth trajectory to become the world’s 3rd largest aviation market by 2020 and largest by 2030. With rising income levels and increasing affordability of the middle class, Indian Aviation is set for a quantum leap in the coming years. The Indian Civil Aviation sector has also been at the forefront of economic and regulatory transformation over the last decade. A slew of policy initiatives such as Open Skies Policy, FDI promotion in aviation and airport infrastructure amongst others have helped fuel impressive growth of the Indian Aviation sector. However, there is immense pressure on the existing infrastructure, thereby resulting in increased congestion, higher operating costs, greater environmental impact, potential safety implications and compromise on passenger experience. Undeniably, the next phase of growth of Indian Aviation is expected to be fuelled by better regional connectivity by focusing on Tier II and III cities, world-class infrastructure, a strong domestic MRO sector and building regional and no-frills airports through PPP, supported by a proactive policy framework. A new Civil Aviation Policy focused on realizing the vision of ‘Make in India’ will enhance regional air connectivity, transform key airports at existing metros into international hubs, create more airports through PPP mode, establish a strong domestic MRO sector and improve passenger facilitation. This will help in transforming the Nation’s economic landscape and significantly contribute towards India’s socio- economic development. I am pleased to present the ASSOCHAM – YES BANK Knowledge Report ‘Indian Civil Aviation - At the Cusp of Taking Off’ which highlights challenges faced by the sector, recent initiatives taken by the Government and key recommendations going forward for making Indian Civil Aviation one of the leading aviation industries in the world. I am confident that you will find the contents of this publication insightful and instrumental in fast-tracking Indian Aviation’s growth story. Thank you. Sincerely, Rana Kapoor President Managing Director & CEO MESSAGE The new Civil Aviation Policy is expected eagerly by the Industry. Increase in the number of people travelling by air, both for business and travel, along with new trade opportunities has led the Government’s focus on infrastructure including the (No-Frills Airports), which will result in various development projects. Indian Aviation sector is likely to see investments of up to US $150 billion in the future. ASSOCHAM, India’s Apex Chamber for Commerce & Industry in India is organizing the Annual 8th International Conference on Civil Aviation & Tourism. We are confident that this Annual Conference will deliberate on the challenges and the emerging opportunities for developing the Civil Aviation Sector further in the country. The Background Paper prepared for ASSOCHAM, by YES BANK the Knowledge Partner, tries to re-examine the Civil Aviation Sector for a better understanding, which will help us in creating a road map for a robust growth in the future. I convey my very good wishes for the success of this Conference. D.S. Rawat Secretary General Contents 1. Introduction 2 2. Key Statistics 6 2.1 Growth in Passenger Traffic 6 2.2 Relationship between Revenue Passenger per Kilometer 7 (RPK) and Real GDP Growth 2.3 Aircraft Penetration Rates 8 2.4 Trends in Tourism Industry 8 2.5 Cargo Industry 10 3. Industry Ecosystem 12 3.1 Scheduled Airlines 12 3.2 General and Business Aviation 15 3.3 Airport Infrastructure 15 3.4 MRO (Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul) 17 3.5 Air Cargo 17 4. Tourism and Civil Aviation 20 5. Key Issues and Challenges facing Indian Civil Aviation 24 6. Civil Aviation Policy – A Key Initiative 30 7. Key Recommendations 34 1. Introduction 1 Introduction “The world is focused on Indian aviation – from manufacturers, tourism boards, airlines and global businesses to individual travelers, shippers and businessmen. If we can find common purpose among all stakeholders in Indian aviation, a bright future is at hand,” said Mr. Tony Tyler, Director General and CEO, International Air Transport Association (IATA). India’s Civil Aviation industry is on a high-growth trajectory and has been at the forefront of economic and regulatory transformation over the last decade. The Civil Aviation industry has entered a new era of expansion, driven by factors such as low-cost carriers (LCCs), modern airports, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in domestic airlines, advanced Information Technology (IT) interventions and growing emphasis on regional connectivity. In the last ten years it has grown at a CAGR of 11.16% with passenger traffic growing from 73.4 million in FY06 to 190.1 million in FY15. Despite the impressive growth, India has one of the lowest air travel penetration rates globally. India has penetration rate of 0.08 annual domestic seats per capita which is significantly lower than other developing markets such as Brazil, Turkey, Indonesia and China, where penetration rates are between 0.35 and 0.65 which again, augurs the potential for growth in the sector. To unlock this growth, some key challenges currently besetting the Civil Aviation sector would have to be addressed. While most of the scheduled; non-scheduled airlines and MRO operators, owing to predatory fiscal regime, are facing financial strain, burgeoning population and rising middle class with higher disposable incomes have put a massive strain on existing aviation infrastructure in the country.