WORKING PAPER #36 / JUNE 14, 2016 An Exploratory Study of Urban Expansion Dynamics in China: Overlooked Third Tier Cities + DOUGLAS WEBSTER, CAI JIANMING, ZHANG FEIFEI, LARISSA MULLER, LIN JING, AND JIANYI LI ABSTRACT This study focuses on understanding the ongoing and future (to 2050) expansion characteristics and dynamics of Third Tier cities in China. Third Tier cities, with city proper populations of 0.5 to 1 million, have received little attention, yet face unique issues related to their size and role, e.g., auto dependency, volatility in growth rates. The study, based on four case study cities, outlines priority challenges facing Third Tier cities related to urban expansion; and indicates action areas, and a proposed on-the-ground program, to make future urban expansion of Third Tier Cities in China more land efficient, productive, inclusive, and sustainable. CONTACT Douglas Webster [email protected] http://marroninstitute.nyu.edu Funding for this research from the Marron Institute of Urban Managment at NYU is gratefully acknowledged This page is intentionally left blank An Exploratory Study of Urban Expansion Dynamics in China: Overlooked Third Tier Cities June 14 2016 Douglas Webster. Cai Jianming. Zhang Feifei. Larissa Muller. Lin Jing. Jianyi Li1 1 Douglas Webster is Professor, School of Geographical Sciences and Urban Planning (SGSUP), Arizona State University; Cai Jianming is Professor, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Science; Larissa Muller is Associate Professor of Environmental Design, University of Calgary; Zhang Feifei and Jianyi Li are PhD students at SGSUP, Arizona State University; Lin Jing is a PhD student at IGSNRR, Chinese Academy of Science. The lead authors can be reached at [email protected] or [email protected]. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors gratefully acknowledge the co-operation, dialogue, and assistance of key agencies that made this research and Monograph possible. In China, assistance was forthcoming, despite the busy schedules of staff in Third Tier Cities. In particular, we wish to thank the Directors and their staff of Comprehensive Department of the Development Reform Commission and Administrative Office of Urban Planning Bureau in Baohsan. In Sanya, we are grateful for the assistance of the Chief Engineer and staff of the Urban Planning Bureau, the Director and staff of the Comprehensive Department of the Development Reform Commission, and the Director and staff of the Tourism Bureau. In Xuancheng, we thank the Director of Planning and staff of the Department of Planning, Development Reform Commission. In Yuncheng we are acknowledge the extensive assistance provided by the Director and staff of the Regional Cooperation Department of the Development Research Commission of Shanxi Province and the Yuncheng Director of Planning and staff of the Development Research Center, Shanxi Province. The NYU Urban Expansion Program at the Marron Institute of Urban Mangement and the Stern School of Business of New York University provided extremely useful feedback as our work progressed, including two sessions in New York with the Urban Expansion Program’s team there. We are especially thankful for the guidance and direction provided by Professor Shlomo Angel, the Director of the Program, and the data and feedback provided by the Program staff, including Alejandro M. Blei, Nicolas Galarza Sanchez and Patrick Lamson-Hall. We also wish to thank Professor Paul Romer, the Director of the Marron Institute, for his insights and for the Institute’s financial support provided for this study. Table of Contents THE MACRO CONTEXT ............................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 BACKGROUND .......................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 OBJECTIVES ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 1.3 THE NATIONAL SPATIAL CONTEXT ............................................................................................................................................... 2 1.4 CASE STUDY CITIES ................................................................................................................................................................................ 3 1.5 POLICY FRAMEWORK: LAND USE IN 3RD AND 4TH TIER CITIES ............................................................................................. 5 1.6 CHALLENGES FACING THIRD AND FOURTH TIER CITIES ..................................................................................................... 8 1.7 CASE STUDY APPROACH ................................................................................................................................................................... 10 BAOSHAN CASE STUDY ............................................................................................................................................................ 11 2.1 BAOSHAN OVERVIEW ........................................................................................................................................................................ 11 2.2 LAND USE / DENSITY CHANGE: BAOSHAN ............................................................................................................................... 12 2.3 BAOSHAN: SPATIAL ELEMENTS/ECONOMIC BASE ............................................................................................................. 14 2.4 BAOSHAN’S URBAN TRANSPORT SYSTEM ............................................................................................................................... 22 2.5 BAOSHAN: POPULATION AND LAND PROJECTIONS ............................................................................................................ 25 2.6 FINDINGS AND CHALLENGES: BAOSHAN ................................................................................................................................. 25 SANYA CASE STUDY .................................................................................................................................................................. 27 3.1 SANYA OVERVIEW ............................................................................................................................................................................... 27 3.2 LAND USE / DENSITY CHANGE: SANYA ..................................................................................................................................... 28 3.3 SANYA’S URBAN STRUCTURE ........................................................................................................................................................ 30 3.4 SANYA’S LAND USE AND TRANSPORTATION PLANNING .................................................................................................. 36 3.5 SANYA: POPULATION AND LAND PROJECTIONS ................................................................................................................... 42 3.6 FINDINGS AND CHALLENGES: URBAN EXPANSION IN SANYA ........................................................................................ 42 YUNCHENG CASE STUDY ......................................................................................................................................................... 44 4.1 YUNCHENG OVERVIEW ..................................................................................................................................................................... 44 4.2 LAND USE / DENSITY CHANGE: YUNCHENG ............................................................................................................................ 44 4.3 URBAN STRUCTURE: YUNCHENG ................................................................................................................................................. 48 4.4 LAND USE / URBAN FORM / TRANSPORTATION PLANNING: YUNCHENG ................................................................ 51 4.5 YUNCHENG: POPULATION AND LAND PROJECTIONS ......................................................................................................... 54 4.6 YUNCHENG: FINDINGS AND CHALLENGES .............................................................................................................................. 55 CONCLUSIONS ............................................................................................................................................................................. 56 5.1 THE AWKWARD TRANSITION FACING 3RD/4TH TIER CITIES ........................................................................................... 56 5.2 FUTURE COMMITMENTS BY LOCAL GOVERNMENTS / APPLIED RESEARCH / ACTION ...................................... 57 APPENDIX 1: TYPICAL KEY URBAN CONSTRUCTION STANDARDS .......................................................................................................... 59 APPENDIX 2: JURISDICTIONS INCLUDED IN POPULATION ANALYSIS OF CASE STUDY CITIES ................................................................. 60 APPENDIX 3: TYPICAL SECOND HOME AMENITY DEVELOPMENT IN TENGCHONG, BAOSHAN CHINA ................................................. 61 i MAPS Map 1: Spatial