RAIN – Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Networks in Response to Extreme Weather Project Reference: 608166 FP7-SEC-2013-1 Impact of extreme weather on critical infrastructure Project Duration: 1 May 2014 – 30 April 2017 Security Sensitivity Committee Deliverable Evaluation Deliverable Reference D 6.3 Deliverable Name Report on benefits of critical infrastructure protection Contributing Partners ROD, ISIG, HI, Dragados, UNIZA, AIA Date of Submission May 2017 The evaluation is: • The content is not related to general project management • The content is not related to general outcomes as dissemination and communication • The content is related to critical infrastructure vulnerability or sensitivity • The content is not publicly available or commonly known • The content does not add new information that might be misused by possible criminal offenders to exploit vulnerabilities • The content does not cause any harm to essential interests of EU or one or more member states • The content does not cause societal anxiety or social unrest • There are no uncertainties that might need to contact the National Security Authority • Diagram path 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 9. Therefore, the evaluation is Public. Decision of Evaluation Public Confidential Restricted Evaluator Name P.L. Prak, MSSM Evaluator Signature Signed by the chairman of the SSC Date of Evaluation 2017-05-29 This project has receiveD funDing from the European Union’s Seventh FrameworK Programme for research, technological Development anD Demonstration unDer grant agreement no 608166 RAIN – Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Networks in Response to Extreme Weather Project Reference: 608166 FP7‐SEC‐2013‐1 Impact of extreme weather on critical infrastructure Project Duration: 1 May 2014 – 30 April 2017 Deliverable 6.3‐Report on benefits of critical infrastructure protection Authors Ciaran Carey* (Roughan & O’Donovan) Julie Clarke (Roughan & O’Donovan) Robert Corbally (Roughan & O’Donovan) Lorcan Connolly (Roughan & O’Donovan) Donya Hajializadeh (Roughan & O’Donovan) Mark Tucker (Roughan & O’Donovan) Chiara Bianchizza (ISIG) Olivia Ferrari (ISIG) Timo Hellenberg (Hellenberg) Carlos Barcena, (Dragados) Maria Luskova (University of Zilina) Xavier Clotet (Groupo AIA) *Correspondence author: Arena House, Arena Road, Sandyford, Dublin 18, [email protected], +35312940800 D6.3‐Report on benefits of critical infrastructure protection DOCUMENT HISTORY Index Date Author(s) Main modifications E01 11/04/2016 DH, CC and MT First Draft E02 12/05/2017 CC, JC, RC and LC, MT Second Draft E03 18/05/2017 CC, RC Addressing Comments Form GDG And UNIZA reviews Document Name: Report on benefits of critical infrastructure protection Work Package: 6 Task: 6.5 Deliverable: 6.3 Deliverable scheduled date (35th Month) 31st March 2017 Responsible Partner: Roughan & O’Donovan D6.3‐Report on benefits of critical infrastructure protection Table of Contents Table of Contents .................................................................................................................................... 3 General Glossary ..................................................................................................................................... 6 1. Introduction ..................................................................................................................................... 9 1.1. Motivation ............................................................................................................................... 9 1.2. Aims and Objectives ................................................................................................................ 9 1.3. Deliverable Structure............................................................................................................. 10 2. Risk‐Based Decision Making Framework ....................................................................................... 12 2.1. Bayesian Network Modelling ................................................................................................ 13 2.1.1. Multi‐Mode Risk Model ................................................................................................. 13 2.1.2. Risk Models and Bayesian Network Nodes ................................................................... 14 3. Case Study 1 ‐ Alpine Region, Italy ................................................................................................ 16 3.1. Emergency response to Extreme Weather Event ................................................................. 16 3.1.1. The framework for civil protection at national level ........ Error! Bookmark not defined. 3.1.2. The civil protection framework in the Friuli Venezia Giulia RegionError! Bookmark not defined. 3.1.3. Procedures in decision making ......................................... Error! Bookmark not defined. 3.1.4. Situational awareness and communications in civil protection at national level ... Error! Bookmark not defined. 3.1.5. Civil protection and flash flood of 29th August 2003 ....... Error! Bookmark not defined. 3.2. Application of Risk Analysis Framework ................................................................................ 27 3.2.1. Enumeration .................................................................................................................. 28 3.2.1.1 Extreme Weather Events: .......................................................................................... 28 3.2.1.2 Hazards ...................................................................................................................... 29 3.2.1.3 Network Vulnerability ............................................................................................... 30 3.2.1.4 Consequences ............................................................................................................ 31 3.2.2. Quantification of Likelihoods ........................................................................................ 32 1.1.1.1 Likelihood of EWEs .................................................................................................... 32 3.2.2.1 Likelihood of Hazards ................................................................................................ 33 3.2.3. Consequence Analysis ................................................................................................... 41 3.2.3.1 Direct economic risks of Landslides .......................................................................... 42 3.2.3.2 Direct societal risks of Landslides .............................................................................. 43 3.2.3.3 Direct economic risks of Inundation .......................................................................... 44 3 D6.3‐Report on benefits of critical infrastructure protection 3.2.3.4 Direct societal risks of Inundation ............................................................................. 45 3.2.3.5 Direct economic risks of Bridge Scour ....................................................................... 46 3.2.3.6 Direct societal risks of Bridge Scour .......................................................................... 46 3.2.3.7 Direct security risks of Landslides, Inundation & Bridge Scour ................................. 47 3.2.4. Bayesian Network Modelling for Economic and Societal Risks ..................................... 47 3.2.4.1 Debris Flows .............................................................................................................. 47 3.2.4.2 Flooding ..................................................................................................................... 48 3.2.5. BN Modelling for Security Risks..................................................................................... 50 3.2.5.1 Land‐Transport Cut‐Off ............................................................................................. 50 3.2.5.2 Electricity Supply Cut‐Off ........................................................................................... 53 3.2.6. Construct Outcome/Utility Probability Distributions .................................................... 54 3.2.6.1 Direct Economic Risks ................................................................................................ 54 3.2.6.2 Direct Societal Risks ................................................................................................... 55 3.2.6.3 Direct Security Risks .................................................................................................. 56 3.2.7. Optimising Mitigation Strategies ................................................................................... 57 3.2.8. Conclusions .................................................................................................................... 60 4. Case Study 2 ‐ Uusimaa Storm Surge, Finland ............................................................................... 62 4.1. Introduction ........................................................................................................................... 62 4.2. Context .................................................................................................................................. 62 4.2.1. Storm Surge Event, January 2005 .................................................................................. 63 4.2.2. Impact of Storm Surge Event ......................................................................................... 64 4.2.3. Emergency management cycle .....................................................................................