The Water Efficiency Paradox The significance of spatial scale and knowledge exchange in irrigation water management Joreen Merks The Water Efficiency Paradox The SIGNIfiCANCE OF SPATIAL SCALE AND KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE IN IRRIGATION WATER MANAGEMENT BY Joreen Merks In PARTIAL FULfiLLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE DEGREES OF Master OF Science Master OF Science AND IN Water Management IN Science Communication AT THE FACULTIES OF Civiel Engineering AND Applied Sciences, Delft University OF Technology, TO BE DEFENDED PUBLICLY ON Tuesday July 10, 2018 AT 15:30h (3:30pm). Student number: 4023420 Thesis committee: Water Management Science COMMUNICATION Prof. dr. ir. W. Bastiaanssen TU Delft Dr. M. Van Der Sanden TU Delft Dr. M. Van Der Sanden TU Delft Dr. E. Kalmar TU Delft Dr. E. Mostert TU Delft Dr. E. Mostert TU Delft Prof. dr. M. De Vries TU Delft An ELECTRONIC VERSION OF THIS THESIS IS AVAILABLE AT http://repository.tudelft.nl/. Cover image: Remote SENSING IMAGE WITH ALTERNATIVE COLORING OF DOWNSTREAM Amu Darya river. The RIVER flOWS FROM THE LOWER RIGHT CORNER INTO THE Aral Sea IN THE UPPER LEFT corner. Vegetation, MOSTLY irrigated, IS SHOWN IN red. By: NASA/GSFC/LaRC/JPL, MISR Team, June 2002 Preface To fiNALIZE MY TWO MASTER DEGREES OF Water Management AND Science Communication, I DECIDED TO DO SOMETHING BIG AND SOMETHING COMPLETELY TO MY interest. Basically I WANTED TO USE MY THESIS TO CREATE A BETTER world, A PRETTY HIGH goal. I SPOKE WITH MANY people, BOTH WITHIN THE TU Delft AND outside, WHO HELPED ME CURB MY AMBITIONS AND SPECIFY MY thoughts. Finally I DEfiNED MY RESEARCH topic, A TOPIC WITH SOCIETAL relevance, LINKING SCIENCE WITH IMPLEMENTATION AND CONTAINING A TECHNICAL ANALYSIS IN WHICH MY INNER NERD COULD GO free: THE WATER EffiCIENCY PARADOX. During THIS RESEARCH I DOVE INTO MANY RABBIT HOLES TO GATHER DETAILS AND UNDERSTANDING OF Remote SENSING products, THE World Bank, AND THE PSYCHOLOGY OF people. From THESE RABBIT HOLES I BROUGHT BACK SNIPPETS OF INFORMATION AND PIECES OF THE puzzle, THAT WERE PUT TOGETHER INTO MY fiNAL thesis. One OF MY motivators, FOR THE MOMENTS WHEN I GOT LOST IN ONE OF MY RABBIT holes, WAS A QUOTE ATTRIBUTED (but NOT WITHOUT doubt) TO Albert Einstein: “IF WE KNEW WHAT WE WERE doing, IT WOULDN’T BE CALLED RESEARCH”. Making ME REALIZE THAT IT IS ALRIGHT TO NOT UNDERSTAND EVERYTHING AND THAT THE GOAL OF THIS RESEARCH IS TO EXPLORE QUESTIONS THAT ARE NOT READILY answered. I ALSO GOT GREAT INSPIRATION FROM WORKS OF fiction. As ONE OF MY FAVORITE AUTHORS Patrick Rothfuss wrote: “All TRUTH IN THE WORLD IS HELD IN STORIES”, AND AS Ivan Illich says: “Neither REVOLUTION NOR REFORMATION CAN ULTIMATELY CHANGE A society, RATHER YOU MUST TELL A NEW POWERFUL tale, ONE SO PERSUASIVE THAT IT SWEEPS AWAY THE OLD MYTHS AND BECOMES THE PREFERRED STORY ... ”. This THESIS IS NOT A NOVEL OR A STORYBOOK YOU READ AT night, BUT IT WILL PROVIDE AN ALTERNATIVE TALE OF IRRIGATION WATER management, THE TALE OF THE WATER EffiCIENCY PARADOX AND THE RELEVANCE OF DIffERENT PERSPECTIVES AND scale. I WANT TO THANK MY SUPERVISORS FOR ASSISTING ME DURING THIS research, GREATLY VALUE YOUR INPUT IN THE RESEARCH process. I WANT TO THANK Wim Bastiaanssen, FOR STEERING ME TOWARDS THIS MOST INTERESTING topic, GUIDING ME THROUGH THE WORLD OF REMOTE SENSING AND OPENING DOORS FOR MY interviews. Maarten VAN DER Sanden, FOR HIS CREATIVE INSIGHTS AND STIMULATING discussions, ESPECIALLY AT THE START OF MY thesis. Eva Kalmar, FOR HER PRACTICAL guidance, KEEPING ME ON TRACK AND HELPING ME BELIEVE IN THE WORK THAT I WAS DOing. And finally, Erik Mostert, FOR HIS CRITICAL VIEWS AND HELPING ME TO BRING WATER MANAGEMENT AND SCIENCE COMMUNICATION together. During MY thesis, I HAD THE PLEASURE TO SPEAK WITH MANY INSPIRATIONAL people, IN SPARRING sessions, INTERVIEWS AND OPEN discussions. My SPECIAL THANKS GOES TO THE World Bank STAff, CONSULTANTS AND RESEARCHERS THAT TOOK THE TIME OUT OF THEIR FULL SCHEDULE TO BE INTERVIEWED BY me. I VERY MUCH ap- PRECIATE YOUR TIME AND THE INVALUABLE INSIGHTS YOU GAVE me. Also, I WANT TO THANK THE SIC-ICWC AND UNESCO-IHE COLLABORATORS OF THE Aral Sea Basin MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR ANSWERING MY QUESTIONS AND PROVIDING ADDITIONAL INFORMATION TO WORK WITH THE DATA FROM THE model. Last BUT NOT LEAST I WANT TO THANK MY FRIENDS AND FAMILY FOR SUPPORTING ME THROUGH THE UPS AND DOWNS OF THIS thesis. By HELPING ME BELIEVE IN myself, PROOFREADING PARTS OF MY thesis, DISTRACTING me, UNDERSTANDING THAT I WAS SOMETIMES preoccupied, SPARRING WITH ME AND MAKING ME laugh, YOU PLAYED A GREAT AND ESSENTIAL ROLE IN THE SUCCESSFUL COMPLETION OF THIS thesis. Joreen Merks Delft, June 2018 III Abstract Water SCARCITY IS A GROWING ISSUE ACROSS THE GLOBE (Rijsberman, 2006) AND BECAUSE AGRICULTURE IS THE MAIN CONSUMER OF water, INVESTING IN IRRIGATION EffiCIENCY SEEMS LIKE A GOOD SOLUTION TO THIS problem. However, LOCAL GAINS IN EffiCIENCY CAN REDUCE RUNOff AND hence, HAVE AN ADVERSE EffECT ON DOWNSTREAM WATER AVAILABILITY (o.a. Perry(2018, 1999) AND Simons ET al.(2015)). The CORE OF THE WATER Effi- CIENCY PARADOX LIES IN THE POSITIVE CONNOTATION OF Efficiency, EVEN THOUGH INCREASING IRRIGATION EffiCIENCY CAN HAVE NEGATIVE consequences. The World Bank IS A LEADING GLOBAL ORGANIZATION THAT INVESTS IN IRRIGATION EffiCIENCY improvements. The Bank OFTEN INVESTS IN THESE EffiCIENCY IMPROVEMENTS WITHOUT CONDUCTING A PROPER BASIN analysis, EVEN THOUGH World Bank STAff AND CONSULTANTS ARE WELL AWARE OF THE RELEVANCE OF THE BASIN perspective. Therefore, THIS RESEARCH AIMS TO SHED LIGHT ON THE WATER EffiCIENCY PARADOX AND HOW BASIN ANALYSIS CAN BE INCLUDED IN World Bank fiNANCED IRRIGATION projects. This IS DONE IN TWO parts. The fiRST PART OF THIS RESEARCH LOOKS INTO IRRIGATION WATER CONSUMPTION IN THE Amu Darya RIVER BASIN IN Central Asia. With THE RESEARCH question: «To WHAT EXTENT IS IT POSSIBLE TO ANALYZE IRRIGATION WATER CONSUMPTION IN Central Asia USING A LOCALLY DEVELOPED MODEL COMBINED WITH OPEN SOURCE REMOTE sens- ING data?». Global OPEN SOURCE DATA FOR EVAPOTRANSPIRATION (ET ), PRECIPITATION (P), AREAS EQUIPPED FOR IRRIGATION AND STORAGE CHANGE ARE COMBINED WITH OUTPUTS FROM THE Aral Sea Basin MANAGEMENT MODEL (ASBmm). These ARE USED TO DETERMINE THE ACTUAL IRRIGATED areas, CHECK THE MODEL DATA WITH WATER BALANCES AND CALCULATE CONSUMED FRACTIONS (CF, THE FRACTION OF THE WITHDRAWAL THAT RESULTS IN ET ). The RESULTS FROM THE ANALYSIS CLEARLY SHOWS A TREND OF INCREASING CF WITH INCREASING IRRIGATED AREA AND ALSO LARGER CFs IN DOWNSTREAM AREAS COMPARED TO UPSTREAM areas. It ALSO SHOWS A BIG DIffERENCE (40%) FOR CALCULATIONS WITHOUT AND WITH COMPLETE REUSE OF UPSTREAM DRAINAGE WATER IN DOWNSTREAM IRRIGATED areas. These TRENDS CONFORM TO THE expectations. The ACTUAL VALUES OF CONSUMED FRACTIONS ARE LESS certain. Due TO UNDERESTIMATION OF SPARSELY IRRIGATED areas, THE UPSTREAM CONSUMED FRACTIONS ARE ALSO underestimated. Additionally, THE ASBmm IS A BLACK BOX MODEL WITH SOME INCONSISTENT outputs, HENCE THE VALIDITY OF THE DATA CAN BE questioned. Open SOURCE REMOTE SENSING DATA PROVIDES A RELIABLE BASIS FOR BASIN ANALYSIS WHICH VAN BE supple- MENTED WITH LOCAL data. This ANALYSIS WAS SUCCESSFUL IN SHOWING THE DYNAMICS OF WATER CONSUMPTION IN THE Amu Darya RIVER basin. However, IT IS RECOMMENDED TO LOOK AT DIffERENT LOCAL DATA SOURCES TO VERIFY THE CF calculations. The SECOND PART OF THIS STUDY INVESTIGATES WHY BASIN ANALYSIS IS NOT STRUCTURALLY INCLUDED IN World Bank fiNANCED IRRIGATION projects. Knowledge EXCHANGE IS CRUCIAL FOR INNOVATION AND ADOPTING NEW PARADIGMS (Filieri ET al., 2014; Walter ET al., 2007), ALSO IN THE World Bank WHO PRESENTS ITSELF AS A KNOWLEDGE bank. This IS RESEARCHED WITH THE RESEARCH question: «To WHAT EXTENT CAN A SOCIAL CAPITAL ANALYSIS OF KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE BETWEEN ACADEMIC hydrologists, World Bank STAff AND World Bank WATER AND IRRIGATION CONSULTANTS AID THE INCORPORATION OF THE BASIN SCALE PERSPECTIVE ON WATER CONSUMPTION IN World Bank fiNANCED IRRIGATION projects?». The SOCIAL CAPITAL PERSPECTIVE PROVIDES A SYSTEMATIC WAY TO LOOK AT THE structural, RELATIONAL AND COGNITIVE DIMENSIONS OF KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE IN A SOCIAL NETWORK (Adler AND Kwon, 2002). Knowledge EXCHANGE AT THE World Bank IS INVESTIGATED WITH semi-structured INTERVIEWS COMBINED WITH documents. The RESULTS FROM THESE INTERVIEWS ARE COMPARED TO THE CONCEPTUAL framework. This FRAMEWORK IS DEDUCED FROM A SYSTEMATIC LITERATURE REVIEW ON KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE COMBINED WITH SOCIAL capital, SOCIAL NETWORKS AND THE science-policy interface. V VI 0. Abstract One OF THE MAIN OBSTACLES IN KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE AND INCLUDING BASIN ANALYSIS IN World Bank fiNANCED IRRIGATION PROJECTS IS LACK OF TIME AND RESOURCES FOR STAff AND consultants. Proper BASIN ANALYSIS IS NOT CONDUCTED BECAUSE IT IS NOT A FORMAL requirement. Additional ISSUES are: MULTIPLE INTERPRETATIONS OF THE TERM Efficiency, SPATIAL DISTANCE BETWEEN NETWORK NODES AND DIffERENCES IN visions, GOALS AND PERSPECTIVES WITHIN THE Bank AND BETWEEN THE Bank AND CLIENT countries. The CLIENT COUNTRIES ARE LEADING IN PROJECT development. They OFTEN FOCUS ON SMALL SCALE DEVELOPMENT AND INFRASTRUCTURE BECAUSE THESE PROJECTS ARE EASIER TO CONDUCT THAN PROJECTS ON THE BASIN scale. At THE MOMENT THE Bank HAS flEXIBLE BACKGROUND role. The APPLICATION OF BASIN SCALE ANALYSIS IN World Bank fiNANCED IRRIGATION PROJECTS HAS TO BE formalized. This DOES NOT MEAN THAT INVESTMENTS IN IRRIGATION EffiCIENCY MUST stop, IT MEANS THAT A BASIN ANALYSIS IS NECESSARY TO MAKE AN INFORMED DECISION ABOUT THAT investment. Basic BASIN ACCOUNTS BASED ON REMOTE SENSING DATA CAN BE COMBINED WITH LOCAL DATA TO ANALYZE WATER consumption, RETURN flOWS AND reuse. For THE IMPLEMENTATION AND LEVEL OF DETAIL OF THE analysis, A BALANCE HAS TO BE FOUND BETWEEN COSTS AND BENEfits. Including THE CLIENT COUNTRY CAN RAISE THEIR AWARENESS OF THE BASIN PERSPECTIVE WHERE BASIC ACCOUNTS BY A SELECT TEAM WITHIN THE BANK MIGHT BE MORE COST AND TIME Efficient.