Africa – Drivers of Change Roger Williamson 1 Wilton Park serves as a British contribution to international understanding. Although it is partially financed by the United Kingdom’s Foreign and Commonwealth Office, Wilton Park enjoys academic freedom in determining the subjects of its conferences and in choosing speakers and participants. Its independence is guaranteed by a British Academic Council and by an International Advisory Council of Ambassadors and High Commissioners in London. Wilton Park conferences bring together people in positions of influence from many countries and from diverse professional backgrounds to examine major issues in international relations, including: European integration and security, US foreign and security policy, and transatlantic relations; Internal problems and foreign policies of the former Soviet Union and Central Europe, and prospects for the eastward enlargement of the European Union and NATO; Japan's economic and security relations with the US and Europe; Regional developments and problems in East, South-East and South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa, sub-Saharan and Southern Africa and Latin America; North-South relations and policies to deal with global issues such as arms proliferation, terrorism, trade, debt, economic development, the environment, migration, drugs and AIDS. Wilton Park Papers are substantive reports on the conferences. They draw on presentations made at the conference. All papers reflect the views of the authors and their personal interpretation of conference proceedings. As such they do not represent any institutional policy of Wilton Park. For the annual calendar and programmes of Wilton Park conferences please contact: Lorraine Jones Marketing Executive Wilton Park Wiston House Steyning West Sussex BN44 3DZ United Kingdom Telephone: 44 (0 in UK) 1903 817772 Fax: 44 (0 in UK) 1903 879647 e-mail: [email protected] Details of Wilton Park’s activities, including copies of the reports, can be found on Wilton Park’s website: www.wiltonpark.org.uk 2 AFRICA – DRIVERS OF CHANGE Roger Williamson December 2006 Wilton Park Paper Report based on Wilton Park Conference 813: 24 – 27 April 2006 on ‘Africa – Drivers of Change’. 3 ___________________________________________________________________ Contents ___________________________________________________________________ 1 2005 – ‘The Year of Africa’ – and The Africa Commission Report 2 African Union Perspectives on Continental Challenges Peace and Security Good Governance Economic and Social Challenges Social and Economic Policies Pan-African Institutional Challenges 3 Africa on the Move: An Urban Crisis in the Making 4 East African Perspectives 5 West African Perspectives 6 Religion, Culture and Development in Africa 7 Governance and Institution Building 8 Leadership in Africa 9 Business, Investment and Development in Africa 10 Africa and the International Financial Institutions 11 Financing Social Development – The Approach of the African Development Bank 12 China in Africa 13 Conclusions 4 1 2005 – ‘The Year of Africa’ – and The Africa Commission Report With British presidency of the G8 and of the European Union coinciding in 2005, there was a unique opportunity for concerted action on the Africa and development agendas. In preparation for these meetings, the British Prime Minister, Tony Blair, established the Commission for Africa to review the ‘state of the continent’.1 Nine of seventeen Commissioners were African. In order of overcome the scepticism concerning ‘yet another Commission’, the Prime Minister insisted that the representation should be current leaders, rather than those who have retired – as is often the case with prestigious Commissions. Considerable diplomatic effort went into ensuring that the African Union and New Economic Partnership for African Development (NEPAD) were fully on board. The logic of the Report is that single issues cannot be addressed in isolation. There has to be a coherent package of policies, owned by African leadership, addressing such issues as governance, peace and security, economic development and investment. The challenge could not be reduced solely to the need for additional aid resources. The Commission concluded economic growth is essential for Africa’s development. In practice, in parts of the continent, economic growth has been quite fast. A number of countries have been posting growth rates of 6 - 8% per annum for a number of years. There is a need for such growth rates to be replicated across the continent in order to address poverty in any meaningful way. In addition, infrastructure has to be updated and improved. Unlike the Indian sub-continent, in Africa infrastructure tends to be what is required to get the product of extractive industries to the ports – from a ‘hole in the ground to the port’. Africa needs to develop the capacity to trade. This needs ‘joined-up thinking’. For example, it has been argued that the best investment for Malawi is to improve Mozambique’s roads. The agenda of the Commission for Africa is an African agenda driven by Africans. It addresses the debt issue, the need for more aid and the need for economic development. There are also certain areas where there is a clear message to the West. The West, for example, needs to stop subsidising its own farms which harm or impede African agriculture, ensure that it s citizens are not involved in corrupt practices and sign an effective arms trade treaty. The numbers being discussed are significant. The argument of the Commission for Africa, substantially accepted by the G8, is that $50 billion per annum should be available for Africa, meaning an additional $25 billion per annum. The European Union has moved significantly in this direction in a number of decisions during 2005. The G8 Summit accepted the message for the need to double resources for development for Africa. It also ensured that these gains at the G8 were consolidated at the Millennium Review Summit in September. The main problem is that the ‘Development Round’ of the World Trade Organisation negotiations has achieved so little. Progress in Hong Kong was disappointing. 1 http://www.commissionforafrica.org/ 5 For 2006 and beyond, the issue is one of delivery. The World Bank and major agencies had moved away from infrastructure financing. It is now increasingly recognised that infrastructure is very important. The Commission for Africa recommends that $10 billion per annum should be made available through an infrastructure consortium under the African Development Bank (ADB). Reporting on Africa is also an area that requires considerable attention. In the major western media, often the ‘bad news’ stories are covered more effectively than the more encouraging developments on the continent. The media facility to encourage the freedom of the media and professionalism within the media under the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) is making good progress. It was a worrying development that Russia initially showed no particular commitment to African issues in its formation of the G8 agenda for St Petersburg; in the event energy issues became the main focus. Responsibility for implementation of the G8 Africa agenda has been placed primarily on the May 2006 Africa Partners Forum. The key question was whether the Joint Plan of Action would be implemented. It was a sign of the astuteness of the British Prime Minister to ensure that the G8 communiqué was signed in front of the world’s press to insist that the leaders of the main industrialised countries be held to account for what they had agreed. It is increasingly obvious that for Africa to meet the Millennium Development Goals, progress in all of the areas indicated in the Commission for Africa is essential. Sustained growth rates of 7% per annum are required during the next decade to meet poverty eradication targets; no development will be possible where serious conflict continues; and governance must be improved. Rather than 2005 being seen as one year for Africa, it should mark the beginning of sustained attention from the international community. The African Peer Review Mechanism (APRM) can help the process. The APRM has begun slowly with only two reports submitted by mid-2006 on Ghana and Rwanda. These are apparently good and well balanced. There are many other aspects of Africa’s situation which need further illumination, for example, the health consideration of the spread of HIV/AIDS. The new involvement of China and India in Africa, particularly in resource acquisition, must also be addressed. The current high price of oil provides a windfall in revenue for some countries, but places additional burdens to most African countries. 2 African Union Perspectives on Continental Challenges Thirty-four of the forty-nine poorest countries in the world (about 70%) are on the African continent. Almost half the population lives in extreme poverty and hunger. HIV/AIDS prevalence is the highest of any continent. Africa suffers from poor infrastructure, limited investment, continuing debt problems and many other challenges. In spite of these difficulties, there is a new determination by Africa’s leaders to address the problems. In recent years, the Organisation for African Unity (OAU) has been reshaped as the African Union (AU). NEPAD has been created and integrated into the structures of the African Union. 6 Peace and Security There are many security situations which will remain challenging to African institutions and governments. Clearly the emphasis has to be on