BACKGROUNDER No. 3286 | MARCH 16, 2018 A Roadmap for Strengthened Transatlantic Pathways in the Western Balkans Daniel Kochis Abstract Challenges posed by the destabilizing influence of Russia, rising Chi- Key Points nese interest and investment, pockets of Islamist extremism, high un- employment, and lack of economic opportunity threaten to ensnare the n The Western Balkans remain Balkans in a permanent geopolitical quicksand. Allowing this to hap- Europe’s tinderbox, and U.S. pen would be a mistake. Now is the time for the U.S. to reinvest in the engagement and leadership will prove critical in ensuring the box Western Balkans. Renewed U.S. attention and engagement will help does not ignite. capitalize on the significant opportunities of the region while mini- mizing the risk that any nefarious outside influences can derail the n In recent years the Western Bal- region’s future in the transatlantic community. kans have been seen as a challenge to be outsourced to Europe. Token attention from the U.S.—and ince the tumult of the 1990s, the Western Balkans have receded oftentimes from our European Sfrom the minds of many American policymakers. While no lon- allies—has allowed problems to ger front-page news, the region remains home to unfinished busi- fester and has provided openings ness. Ethnic, religious, and cultural differences, along with histori- for nefarious actors to exploit. cal grievances retain the potential to set off renewed hostilities and n The Western Balkans are violence. Furthermore, the challenges posed by the destabilizing squeezed between the threats influence of Russia, rising Chinese interest and investment in the from Russian destabilization, region, pockets of Islamist extremism, high unemployment, and growing attempts by China to gain lack of economic opportunity threaten to ensnare the Balkans in a an economic and political foothold permanent purgatorial geopolitical quicksand. in the region, and risks from radical Islamist terrorism, exacerbated by Allowing this to happen would be a mistake for the U.S. Since the the migrant crisis. end of the Cold War, the U.S. has invested heavily in the region. Tens of n thousands of U.S. military members served there. The U.S. remains the The Trump Administration should put an end to the U.S. policy of single largest contributing nation to NATO’s Kosovo Force (KFOR),1 imposing “progressive” social poli- and billions of dollars in American aid have been spent to guide the cies on the Western Balkans that nations of the Balkans toward democracy, free-market economies, and are contrary to the cultural and integration into the transatlantic community. Rather than downgrade religious norms of these nations. This paper, in its entirety, can be found at http://report.heritage.org/bg3286 The Heritage Foundation 214 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20002 (202) 546-4400 | heritage.org Nothing written here is to be construed as necessarily reflecting the views of The Heritage Foundation or as an attempt to aid or hinder the passage of any bill before Congress. BACKGROUNDER | NO. 3286 MARCH 16, 2018 this investment, now is the time for the U.S. to rein- tia, Kosovo, Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia. vest in the Western Balkans. Renewed U.S. attention Historically, the region has been a contested battle- and engagement will help capitalize on the significant ground and the gateway to Europe. Over the centu- opportunities of the region while minimizing the risk ries, Romans, Byzantines, Bulgarians, Venetians, that any nefarious outside influences can derail the Austro-Hungarians, Ottomans, and the Socialist region’s future in the transatlantic community. Federal Republic of Yugoslavia have controlled parts Moving forward, the Trump Administration and of the Western Balkans. It is home to large numbers Congress should seek to satisfy “five Ps” in the West- of Orthodox Christians, Roman Catholics, and Mus- ern Balkans: lims, along with smaller numbers of Jews and Prot- estants. It is likewise home to a multitude of ethnic 1. Peace. U.S. policy should help maintain a secure groups. The economies of the region range from and stable region. Croatia’s $50 billion economy to Montenegro’s $4.3 billion economy—about the same size as the island 2. Progress. U.S. policy should seek to keep the nation of Barbados.2 Despite size differences, the Western Balkans progressing toward the West. economies of the region face many of the same hur- This progress includes implementing economic dles for sustained growth. reforms, tackling corruption, and contributing to Often called Europe’s tinderbox, twice in the regional security and stability through coopera- 20th century has conflict in the Western Balkans tion with the U.S. and NATO. eventually resulted in American troops fighting on European soil. The assassination of Archduke Franz 3. Potential. U.S. policy should focus on unlocking Ferdinand in Sarajevo in June 1914 lit the spark that the vast potential of the region by tapping into ignited World War I. In that conflict, 116,516 Ameri- its advantages, including a strategic location and cans died while in service and 204,002 were wound- young population. ed.3 More recently, the wars that broke out following the dissolution of Yugoslavia led to shocking atroci- 4. Pragmatism. U.S. policy should encourage the ties, the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, region’s leaders to be pragmatic in their relations and the displacement of millions more. The U.S. with neighbors and encourage mutual beneficial and our NATO allies began to engage diplomatically cooperation. Likewise, the U.S. should be prag- and politically in these conflicts in 1992,4 eventual- matic in its relations with Serbia. ly intervening militarily. In 1994, while enforcing a United Nations (U.N.) Resolution,5 which established 5. Prosperity. U.S. policy should emphasize a no-fly zone over Bosnia and Herzegovina, NATO enshrining economic freedom in the Western Bal- aircraft engaged in offensive military action for the kans that will help build prosperity. Such success- first time in the alliance’s then-44 years of existence.6 es will have positive follow-on effects for security The security situation in the Western Balkans has and the well-being of the people of the region. improved dramatically over the past two decades. However, the future remains undefined, and insta- Concrete steps embedded within the five Ps include bility in the region could conceivably ensnare the support for pipelines that lesson the region’s reliance United States in conflict once again. To avoid this on Russian energy; extension of the Visa Waiver Pro- outcome, the U.S. must establish a healthy re-engage- gram (VWP) to Croatia; continued robust contribu- ment with the Western Balkans, recognizing their tions to KFOR; and support for Macedonia’s accession importance for European security, and, by extension, to NATO. This paper provides a roadmap that offers the American security. U.S. an opportunity to reengage with the vital Western Unfortunately, in recent years, American engage- Balkans to ensure continued security and stability. ment in the Balkans has been neither as robust nor as constructive as it should be. President Barack The U.S. Cannot Afford to Ignore the Obama never once visited the Western Balkans in Western Balkans his eight years in office.7 President George W. Bush This paper focuses on the Western Balkans, the made a mere three visits to the region, one visit nations of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croa- apiece to Albania, Croatia, and Kosovo.8 Under the 2 BACKGROUNDER | NO. 3286 MARCH 16, 2018 MAP 1 The Western Balkans AUSTRIA HUNGARY ■ NATO Member ■ Ljubljana NATO Candidate ■ Non-NATO Member or Candidate SLOVENIA Zagreb CROATIA Krk Island LNG Terminal ROMANIA Belgrade BOSNIA AND Bucharest HERZEGOVINA SERBIA Sarajevo NATO Kosovo Force HQ Niš Airbase, home to the “Russian-Serbian Humanitarian Center,” a likely Russian spy base MONTENEGRO Priština Sofia Podgorica KOSOVO Detail BULGARIA Area ITALY Skopje Adriatic Sea MACEDONIA Tirana ALBANIA GREECE Aegean Sea Mediterranean Sea SOURCE: Heritage Foundation research. BG3286 heritage.org Obama Administration, the U.S. State Department region and crowded out our legitimate security and and Foreign Aid organizations viewed the transpo- economic interests. sition of a progressive social agenda onto the region The Trump Administration should put an end to as the most important aim of U.S. policy. Millions of the U.S. policy of imposing progressive social poli- taxpayer dollars have been spent9 in support of “pro- cies on the Western Balkans and interfering unnec- gressive” causes in the Western Balkans, much of it essarily in the domestic politics of sovereign nation on policies the majority of Americans themselves do states.10 Like the Hippocratic Oath, the U.S. should not support. These impelled policies were usually at seek first to do no harm. U.S. engagement should odds with the views of the people living in the con- focus on regional stabilization and working with our servative and pious nations of the Western Balkans. allies in Europe to advance a transatlantic security In doing so, the U.S. damaged its standing in the and economic agenda. 3 BACKGROUNDER | NO. 3286 MARCH 16, 2018 This agenda faces many hurdles. The Western Bal- Economically, Russia’s influence in the Western kans remain the only region in Europe with unfin- Balkans has been on the decline for years. Trade ished business. Sectarian divisions are a constant with, and investment from, other European nations undercurrent, and the region as a whole continues to far outweighs trade and investment from Russia.15 struggle with high unemployment, pervasive corrup- Russia’s biggest economic influence in the region is tion, and the flight of human capital, especially the in the energy sector, although even this influence young and educated.