The Carroll Round at Georgetown University Box 571016 Washington, DC 20057 Tel: (202) 687-5696 Fax: (202) 687-1431 [email protected] http://carrollround.georgetown.edu The Seventeenth Annual Carroll Round Steering Committee Olivia Bisel, chair Shine Aung Grady Killeen Arjun Krishnan Joshua Levy Duy Mai Parker Malarkey Meggie Underwood Elinor Walker Jacob Witt Crystal Zhu Carroll Round Proceedings Copyright © 2018 The Carroll Round Georgetown University, Washington, DC http://carrollround.georgetown.edu All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photography, recording, or an information storage and retrieval system, without the written permission of the contributing authors. The Carroll Round reserves the copyright to the Carroll Round Proceedings volumes. Original works included in this volume are printed by consent of the respective authors as established in the “Non-Exclusive Copyright Agreement.” The Carroll Round has received permission to copy, display, and distribute copies of the contributors’ works through the Carroll Round website (carrollround.georgetown.edu) and through the annual proceedings publication. The contributing authors, however, retain the copyright and all other rights including, without limitation, the right to copy, distribute, publish, display, or modify the copyright work, and to transfer, assign, or grant license of any such rights. The views expressed in the enclosed papers are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Carroll Round or Georgetown University. CARROLL ROUND PROCEEDINGS The Sixteenth Annual Carroll Round An Undergraduate Conference Focusing on Contemporary International Economics Research and Policy VOLUME 13 Editors in Chief: Arjun Krishnan, Jacob Witt Associate Editors: Olivia Bisel, Shine Aung, Grady Killeen, Arjun Krishnan, Joshua Levy, Duy Mai, Parker Malarkey, Meggie Underwood, Elinor Walker, Crystal Zhu A Carroll Round Publication The Sixteenth and Seventeenth Carroll Round Steering Committees Georgetown University, Washington, DC 2018 TABLE OF CONTENTS What is the Carroll Round? iv Notes on Paper and Conference Participation iv Notes on Published Papers iv Acknowledgements v A Brief History of the Carroll Round vi Why I Support the Carroll Round ix Carroll Round Proceedings (*Denotes Abstract Only) Trade creation and Diversion in the U.S. - Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement: 1 A Preliminary Analysis AMY YANG Dartmouth College A Performance Analysis of Managed Futures 11 CHRISTIAN FERNANDO Georgetown University What are the Effects of Specific Trade Agreement Provisions on Bilateral Trade 33 Flows?* DUNCAN HOBBS Georgetown University 34 7KH&RVWRI&RQÀLFW5HIXJHH)ORZVLQ6XE6DKDUDQ$IULFD *$%5,(//(&2+(1 University of Cape Town 7KH(IIHFWRI6FDQGDORQWKH9DOXHRI3ROLWLFDO&RQQHFWLRQVLQ6RXWK.RUHDQ 46 &KDHERO *5$&(.,0 Georgetown University Attribute-Based Regulations: The Case of Corporate Average Fuel Economy 65 (CAFE) Standards* GRADY KILLEEN Georgetown University Transparency and the Effect of Natural Resources on Economic Growth* 66 OLIVIA BISEL, YUOU WU Georgetown University i Power and Petropolitics: How Oil Prices Affect Clout 67 GRIFFIN COHEN Georgetown University The Economic Efficacy of Reintegration Assistance for Former Child Soldiers 78 JONATHAN KAUFMANN American University Why Uncertainty Matters: An Empirical Approach for Spain 90 ROBERT PÉREZ GARCIA, ALEXANDRE DÍAZ CODINA, ADAM LAAZIZ ALAOUI DESCARREGA, VICTOR M. QUINTAS MARTÍNEZ, ADRIA ROCA VALLS Universitat Pompeu Fabra Why don’t countries sue more often at the WTO? An Analysis of Specific Trade 110 Concerns in the SPS Committee* MATHISON S. CLORE Georgetown University Do Language and Cultural Barriers Enable Firms to Price Discriminate Between 111 Countries in the European Union? 7,00$(&.(5 University of Warwick Exploring conflict in Nigeria: Does the rapacity effect dominate across local 122 government areas in Nigeria?* DAVID HENNING University of Warwick Pharmaceutical Royalty Licensing Transaction Impacts on Shareholder Wealth: 123 An Event Study ALEXANDRA MALINDI COLYER Georgetown University Financial Fragility and Contagion in Emerging Economies: A Panel Analysis 138 STEFANI KOSTADINOVA American University in Bulgaria Working Women: The Impact of Financial Crises on Female Labor Force 160 Participation Rates in Developing Countries ALYSON MATTHEWS Georgetown University Voting for Credibility: The Political Economy of Sovereign Credit Ratings 172 TY GREENBERG* Georgetown University ii “Comrade, Have You Seen the Latest Polls?” A Quantitative Analysis of the Impact 173 of National Election Polls on Vote Defection in the European Parliament MARCEL SCHLEPPER University of Warwick Country-Level Crime Rates and Sanctuary Jurisdictional Status 183 THOMAS M. SEGERSTROM Gettysburg College Relative Deprivation, Rural-Urban Migration and Rural Inequality in China 193 MOHAMMAD TAIMUR ALI AHMAD Georgetown University Qatar Bank Consolidation and Systemic Risk: M&A During the 2008 Financial Crisis* 202 GREGORY D. MASLAK, GONCA SENEL Bowdoin College An Application of the Phillips Curve to the Indian Economy 203 SHAMBHAVI TIWARI Columbia University Goodbye Lenin, Hello Murat? The Effect of Communism on Individual Attitudes 211 Toward Immigration* MATTHEW CARL Washington & Lee University On the Effects of Intellectual Property Rights on Foreign Direct Investments in 212 Developing Economies: A System GMM Approach VINCENT JERALD R. RAMOS University of the Philippines Appendix 233 iii What is the Carroll Round? The Carroll Round is an international economics conference for undergraduate students held each spring at Georgetown University in Washington, D.C. It takes the format of a professional academic conference at which students present their original research in international economics (broadly defined) that are typically honors theses. The goal of the Carroll Round is to foster the exchange of ideas among the leading undergraduate economics students by encouraging and supporting the pursuit of scholarly innovation. To date, over 500 students from universities and colleges in North America, Western and Eastern Europe, Asia, the Middle East, South America, and Australia have participated, making the Carroll Round the premier conference of its kind. The conference also provides opportunities for participants to interact with prominent academic and policy economists. Alumni have moved on to top Ph.D., J.D., M.B.A., and other graduate programs, positions at the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and other public institutions, and major private corporations. Notes on Paper Submissions and Conference Participation The Carroll Round Proceedings is a publication of synopses and full-length papers from the Carroll Round Undergraduate International Economics Conference at Georgetown University. We do not accept paper submissions from the public. If you are interested in presenting at the conference, please log on to our website: http://carrollround.georgetown.edu. All undergraduate students who have written or are in the process of writing original work in the field of economics are encouraged to apply. Special preference is granted to papers focusing on international issues. Notes on Published Papers Many of the papers published in this journal have been shortened due to length requirements. In most cases, changes were minor. However, some essays were significantly abridged due to these constraints. iv Acknowledgments Organizing an economics conference as an undergraduate student is no small feat. The Carroll Round has prevailed, in part, thanks to the work of previous committees. Inspired by the founding mission to expand the frontiers of knowledge and policy applications through academic discourse, each successive committee harnesses an astonishing legacy in building the conference each year. At the core of this legacy, of course, is the numerous individuals and organizations without whom the Carroll Round would not be possible. The Carroll Round would like to acknowledge special individuals who have cared deeply about our cause. Alumna Marianne Keler and her spouse Michael Kershow have graced us with their support and presence every year. The Carroll Round Endowed Program Fund that they created for us provides us with a perpetual income stream to support the annual conference. We thank Ms. Keler and Mr. Kershow deeply for having been such an important part of the Carroll Round over all these years. Our deepest gratitude will forever to go to alumnus Yunho Song, who has personally supported the Carroll Round from its very first year. The first committee had the privilege of sitting down with Mr. Song at the Tombs to convey our dreams. Mr. Song designated for us his endowment fund, which now supports the Carroll Round year after year. Among the Carroll Round alumni, Mr. Scott Pedowitz has provided tremendous guardianship and support. Mr. Pedowitz was a member of the founding committee, and the Carroll Round was able to gain his support for each of the sixteen years since his graduation. Mr. Pedowitz meets with the committee members every year to gain updates and to share the vision that has continued since the founding year. The Carroll Round would have not been possible without the support of many other individuals. We would like to recognize Mr. Mario Espinosa, Mr. Oleg Nodelman, Ms. Colleen Murphy, Mr. and Mrs. Kenneth Kunkel, Ms. Sarah Osborne, Mr. Jonathan Prin, Mr. Jon Skillman and Ms. Luanne Selk,