Humanitarian military intervention is not an oxymoron but a central policy challenge of S our times. What are the conditions for success and failure? Taylor Seybolt’s thoroughly E documented and rigorously argued cases provide specific answers about when, Y B HUMANITARIAN where and how we should rescue war victims with military force. O Thomas G. Weiss L Presidential Professor of Political Science, City University of New York T MILITARY Taylor Seybolt’s book is essential reading for anyone interested in humanitarian H intervention. It is the leading study on when humanitarian intervention will produce U M humanitarian results, and when it will only make things worse. A INTERVENTION Stephen Van Evera N Professor of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology I T A THE CONDITIONS FOR Moving beyond debates about legality and legitimacy, this work is a systematic R I attempt to apply measures of success to humanitarian interventions. The difficulties A of this analysis are fully acknowledged—and fully engaged. The result is a carefully N SUCCESS AND FAILURE argued, richly detailed study, an original and important contribution to the literature. M I Jim Whitman L I Co-editor, Journal of Humanitarian Assistance T A Humanitarian Military Intervention focuses on the questions of when and how R Y military intervention in conflicts can achieve humanitarian benefits. It argues that an I intervention can be justified only when decision makers are reasonably sure that it N T will do more good than harm. As the measure of success, the book develops a E methodology to determine the number of lives saved. The analysis of 17 military R TAYLOR B. SEYBOLT V operations in the defining cases of the 1990s—Iraq after the Gulf War, Somalia, E Bosnia and Herzegovina, Rwanda, Kosovo and East Timor—reveals both N successful and unsuccessful interventions in the same locations. T I The book posits that an intervention’s short-term effectiveness depends primarily O on factors within the control of the intervener, rather than factors inherent to the N conflict. Taylor Seybolt combines political and humanitarian dimensions to create a typology that compares the needs of populations suffering from conflict with an intervener’s military strategies, motives, capabilities and response time. The detailed case studies test hypotheses derived from the model and identify the policy implications of various courses of action. Dr Taylor B. Seybolt (United States) is an assistant professor at the University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public and International Affairs. He was previously a Senior Program Officer at the United States Institute of Peace and Leader of the SIPRI Conflicts and Peace Enforcement Project. 1 OXFORD Humanitarian military intervention is not an oxymoron but a central policy challenge of S our times. What are the conditions for success and failure? Taylor Seybolt’s thoroughly E documented and rigorously argued cases provide specific answers about when, Y B HUMANITARIAN where and how we should rescue war victims with military force. O Thomas G. Weiss L Presidential Professor of Political Science, City University of New York T MILITARY Taylor Seybolt’s book is essential reading for anyone interested in humanitarian H intervention. It is the leading study on when humanitarian intervention will produce U M humanitarian results, and when it will only make things worse. A INTERVENTION Stephen Van Evera N Professor of Political Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology I T A THE CONDITIONS FOR Moving beyond debates about legality and legitimacy, this work is a systematic R I attempt to apply measures of success to humanitarian interventions. The difficulties A of this analysis are fully acknowledged—and fully engaged. The result is a carefully N SUCCESS AND FAILURE argued, richly detailed study, an original and important contribution to the literature. M I Jim Whitman L I Co-editor, Journal of Humanitarian Assistance T A Humanitarian Military Intervention focuses on the questions of when and how R Y military intervention in conflicts can achieve humanitarian benefits. It argues that an I intervention can be justified only when decision makers are reasonably sure that it N T will do more good than harm. As the measure of success, the book develops a E methodology to determine the number of lives saved. The analysis of 17 military R TAYLOR B. SEYBOLT V operations in the defining cases of the 1990s—Iraq after the Gulf War, Somalia, E Bosnia and Herzegovina, Rwanda, Kosovo and East Timor—reveals both N successful and unsuccessful interventions in the same locations. T I The book posits that an intervention’s short-term effectiveness depends primarily O on factors within the control of the intervener, rather than factors inherent to the N conflict. Taylor Seybolt combines political and humanitarian dimensions to create a typology that compares the needs of populations suffering from conflict with an intervener’s military strategies, motives, capabilities and response time. The detailed case studies test hypotheses derived from the model and identify the policy implications of various courses of action. Dr Taylor B. Seybolt (United States) is an assistant professor at the University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Public and International Affairs. He was previously a Senior Program Officer at the United States Institute of Peace and Leader of the SIPRI Conflicts and Peace Enforcement Project. 1 OXFORD Humanitarian Military Intervention The Conditions for Success and Failure Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SIPRI is an independent international institute for research into problems of peace and conflict, especially those of arms control and disarmament. It was established in 1966 to commemorate Sweden’s 150 years of unbroken peace. The Institute is financed mainly by a grant proposed by the Swedish Government and subsequently approved by the Swedish Parliament. The staff and the Governing Board are international. The Institute also has an Advisory Committee as an international consultative body. The Governing Board is not responsible for the views expressed in the publications of the Institute. Governing Board Ambassador Rolf Ekéus, Chairman (Sweden) Dr Willem F. van Eekelen, Vice-Chairman (Netherlands) Dr Alexei G. Arbatov (Russia) Jayantha Dhanapala (Sri Lanka) Dr Nabil Elaraby (Egypt) Rose E. Goettemoeller (United States) Professor Mary Kaldor (Germany) Professor Ronald G. Sutherland (Canada) The Director Director Dr Bates Gill (United States) Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Signalistgatan 9, SE-169 70 Solna, Sweden Telephone: +46 8/655 97 00 Fax: +46 8/655 97 33 Email: [email protected] Internet URL: http://www.sipri.org Humanitarian Military Intervention The Conditions for Success and Failure Taylor B. Seybolt OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS 2008 1 Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide in Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offices in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries Published in the United States by Oxford University Press Inc., New York © SIPRI 2007 First published 2007 First published in paperback 2008 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of SIPRI, or as expressly permitted by law, or under terms agreed with the appropriate reprographics rights organization. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the scope of the above should be sent to SIPRI, Signalistgatan 9, SE-169 70 Solna, Sweden You must not circulate this book in any other binding or cover and you must impose the same condition on any acquirer British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Data available Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Data available Typeset and originated by Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Printed and bound in Great Britain on acid-free paper by Biddles Ltd, King’s Lynn, Norfolk ISBN 978–0–19–925243–5 (hbk.) ISBN 978–0–19–955105–7 (pbk.) Contents Preface to the paperback edition vii Preface to the hardback edition viii Acknowledgements x Abbreviations and acronyms xi Map 1. Northern Iraq, 1992 xiii Map 2. Somalia xiv Map 3. Bosnia and Herzegovina, April 1995 xv Map 4. Rwanda, August 1994 xvi Map 5. Kosovo, 1999 xvii Map 6. East Timor, 1999 xviii 1. Controversies about humanitarian military intervention 1 I. Humanitarian intervention debates 7 II. The structure of this book 28 2. Judging success and failure 30 I. What is success? 30 II. Counting people who did not die 32 III. A typology of humanitarian military intervention 38 IV. Summary 45 Figure 2.1. Military responses to humanitarian dilemmas 40 Table 2.1. A typology of humanitarian military intervention 42 3. Humanitarian military interventions in the 1990s 46 I. State oppression of the Kurds in northern Iraq, 1991–96 47 II. State failure and famine in Somalia, 1991–95 52 III. Secession and ethnic expulsion in Bosnia and 61 Herzegovina, 1992–95 IV. Genocide and civil war in Rwanda, 1994 70 V. Secessionist violence and ethnic expulsion in Kosovo, 78 1999 VI. Independence and fear in East Timor, 1999–2000 86 VII. Summary 93 Table 3.1. The impact of intervention in northern Iraq, 1991–96 48 Table 3.2. The impact of intervention in Somalia, 1991–95 60 Table 3.3. The impact of intervention in Bosnia and Herzegovina, 68 1992–95 Table 3.4. The impact of intervention in Rwanda, 1994 78 Table 3.5. The impact of intervention in Kosovo, 1999–2000 80 Table 3.6.