Statistical Considerations in Monitoring Birds Over Large Areas Douglas H. Johnson Abstract—The proper design of a monitoring effort depends prima- program will facilitate addressing the remaining issues. rily on the objectives desired, constrained by the resources available Knowing why something is to be done will dictate answers to to conduct the work. Typically, managers have numerous objectives, the other questions (Roberts 1991; Usher 1991). As Green such as determining abundance of the species, detecting changes in (1984:298) said, “environmental biologists tend to worry too population size, evaluating responses to management activities, much about the statistical methodology and too little about and assessing habitat associations. A design that is optimal for one the question.” objective will likely not be optimal for others. Careful consideration When asked by managers to help design a monitoring scheme of the importance of the competing objectives may lead to a design for birds, I often become a reflective listener, but aggressively so. that adequately addresses the priority concerns, although it may I first ask them why they want to monitor birds, and when they not be optimal for any individual objective. Poor design or inad- tell me, I ask more questions. If they say they want to know what equate sample sizes may result in such weak conclusions that the is happening to bird populations on the area they manage, I ask effort is wasted. Statistical expertise can be used at several stages, why they want to know, and what is the area of concern, and do such as estimating power of certain hypothesis tests, but is perhaps they care what is happening elsewhere. If they say they want to most useful in fundamental considerations of describing objectives know what effect their management actions are having, I ask and designing sampling plans. them why, and which practices are of concern, and how much land they affect. While such inquisitions can prove irritating to the managers, and remind them of youngsters who respond to every answered question with another “Why?”, I have found that This paper presents a personal view on the topic of the process does tend to refine the manager’s thinking. He or she monitoring birds over a large area, such as a national park, will eventually settle on one or more specific needs that should forest, or wildlife refuge. My ideas derive from several years be addressed. And that usually leads to answers to the other experience as a consulting statistician in a natural resource questions. management agency. In recent years, especially, I have been In several recent workshops with U.S. Fish and Wildlife asked by managers for help in establishing surveys for Service land managers, I asked them why they wanted to nongame birds. Most of my experience is with U.S. Fish and monitor birds, in this case nongame birds. Responses ran the Wildlife Service managers, who are responsible for fairly gamut. A number of managers wanted to contribute to large areas such as national wildlife refuges, as well as broad-scale, coordinated monitoring and research efforts. groups of smaller units such as waterfowl production areas. They expressed an interest in conducting North American My limited interactions with land managers in other agen- Breeding Bird Survey (Peterjohn 1994) routes, or support- cies suggest that their concerns are essentially similar. My ing MAPS (Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivor- emphasis here is on the statistical (especially the design) ship) (DeSante and others 1993b) stations, or contributing to aspects of monitoring, rather than on the field methodology. the U.S. Forest Service’s bird monitoring plan (Manley Thus, I will not concentrate on questions such as whether 1993). Others more generally wanted to provide better point counts should be used in lieu of line transects. Useful information on distribution of birds or their habitat affini- references about field methodology include Ralph and Scott ties, or to identify threats to their viability. (1981), Verner (1985), and Ralph and others (1993) for birds; Some managers indicated an interest in local-scale issues. Lancia and others (1994) discussed methods of population Managers wanted to assess the value of their area to non- estimation for wildlife more generally. game birds. Others wanted to determine when and how their When establishing a monitoring program, many ques- area is used by different species. Some U.S. Forest Service tions arise: What should be done? When should it be done? managers indicated that monitoring of nongame birds is How should it be conducted? Who should do it? Where should required by laws or regulations. sites be located? Why should it be carried out? And, espe- Several managers’ interests were tied to the general cially for administrators, how much will it cost? “health” of their managed areas. Some managers wanted to The major point of my paper is that the “Why” question is monitor nongame birds to indicate habitat quality and overriding and should be clearly addressed first. Under- environmental health. (See Temple and Wiens [1989] for an standing—and agreeing to—the objectives of a monitoring interesting discussion of using birds as bio-indicators.) Oth- ers mentioned monitoring indicator species. Several manag- In: Bonney, Rick; Pashley, David N.; Cooper, Robert J.; Niles, Larry, ers viewed nongame birds as part of the ecosystem approach, eds. 2000. Strategies for bird conservation: The Partners in Flight plan- ning process; Proceedings of the 3rd Partners in Flight Workshop; 1995 recently adopted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and October 1-5; Cape May, NJ. Proceedings RMRS-P-16. Ogden, UT: U.S. other federal agencies (Malone 1995). Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. Beyond the objectives listed above, three reasons were Douglas H. Johnson, Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center, USGS most consistently mentioned for monitoring in managed Biological Resources Division, 8711 37th Street SE, Jamestown, ND 58401. USDA Forest Service Proceedings RMRS-P-16. 2000 115 areas, and these will be the focus of the remainder of this recognize the species. Many state birding societies have paper. These were (1) to get presence/absence information developed systems to evaluate unusual sightings. Photo- for species, (2) to monitor population trends, and (3) to graphs or other evidence may be required in certain circum- evaluate the effects of specific management actions. I tried stances. I suggest using those systems to verify species to demonstrate to the managers that the optimal monitoring records for managed sites. Also, some thought should be design will vary, depending on which objective is para- given to indicating the relative abundance of, or likelihood of mount. As we treated each objective, we discussed various a bird watcher finding, each species. methods available to meet the objective and evaluated the A final word about this objective: when pressed, managers advantages and disadvantages of each method. generally acknowledge that learning which species use their site is not their foremost objective. As more effort is devoted to meeting the objective, the longer this list of species will Obtaining Presence/Absence become. Eventually any species added will be a rarity, Information ____________________ especially one whose normal range is distant from the site. The value of a list of extralimital species is questionable. If the primary objective is to learn which species use the Although managers—and visiting birders—like to know area, possibly by season, a variety of methods can be which species are likely to be found on a site during a employed. Point counts (Ralph and others 1995b), transects particular season, managers usually need information ad- (Mikol 1980; Seber 1982), territory mapping (Hall 1964; dressing the other two major objectives. Val Velzen 1972), nest searching, and other systematic methods will provide information about species using the area. But these methods are labor-intensive relative to the Monitoring Bird Population information obtained. Changes _______________________ A more suitable method is to conduct aggressive searching of all habitats on the site. Mist-netting (Karr 1981) might be Many managers indicated that they wanted to know how used to augment the database. Nocturnal surveys will im- bird populations on their areas were changing over time. For prove the chance of detecting owls, rails, goatsuckers, and that objective, the ad hoc procedures recommended above certain other species that are more active at night. Playing are not very suitable. General references on ecological moni- recorded calls and listening for responses is valuable for toring include Goldsmith (1991) and Spellerberg (1991). One certain secretive species (Johnson and others 1981). Adding of the most important considerations for monitoring is that observations of species detected incidental to other activities the system needs to be repeatable. Except in very unusual also will be useful. Managers should develop a system for situations, results of a monitoring effort in any year will staff and visitors to record such sightings, verify them, and provide but an index to the population size of each species. add them to the data base. Also, there may be historical data It is useful to have the index close to the actual population that can be included, although old occurrence records may size (that is, to monitor a large fraction of the population), tell little about current presence. but it is far more important to have the index strongly Addressing this objective lends itself to a cooperative correlated with the population size (Johnson 1995). effort with the local birding community, either individuals Some guidelines will help ensure that an index is accu- or organized clubs. The best information on the bird species rate. The advice is simple to state but not always easy to using an area can be obtained by encouraging active and follow.