SAMPLE THE MARKET FOR UAV TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT SERVICES 2020-2024 BY PHILIP BUTTERWORTH-HAYES AND TIM MAHON EDITION 3.02 JUNE 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info 1 The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020- 2024 Edition 3.02 www.unmannedairspace.info The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.02 June 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info 2 Contents – V3.02 Executive summary 4 1. Market overview 6 2. A growing demand for services 13 2.1 Overview of high-level forecasts for commercial drone operator 13 services by sector, value, geography and platform numbers 3. A country-by-country and regional guide to programmes creating 20 the procedures and protocols required for UTM Introduction 20 3.1 Africa 21 3.2 Australasia 25 3.3 Europe 28 3.4 Far East 70 3.5 Latin America and the Caribbean 85 3.6 Middle East 88 3.7 North America 91 4. Financing UTM 118 4.1 Different approaches to financing UTM systems 118 5. Market forecasts for growth in the global UTM market – by value, 131 geographic demand and sector 5.1 How UTM services are currently being implemented worldwide 131 5.2 The developing role of UTM service providers 134 5.3 Business opportunities for mobile network operators 145 5.4 Air navigation service providers and UTM business opportunities 151 5.5 UTM market forecasts by value, geographic demand and sector 154 6. The Urban Air/Advanced Air Mobility UTM market 156 6.1 Introduction to the UAM market 156 6.2 Governmental and inter-governmental urban air transport research and collaborative programmes 175 6.3 Commercial company research programmes 179 7. Current and emerging technologies 181 7.1 Drone registration 183 7.2 Geo-fencing 187 7.3 Surveillance, tracking and identification 193 7.4 Sense-and-avoid 209 The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.02 June 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info 3 7.5 Communications 219 7.6 Block chain 229 7.7 Parachute systems 234 7.8 Integrated counter-UAS systems 236 7.9 High altitude operations 246 7.10 Global navigation satellite systems 247 8. The role of regulators, certification and standards agencies – likely 253 scenarios for developing the regulatory framework for UTM 8.1 The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) 253 8.2 European agencies 258 8.3 National regulatory bodies, drone councils and JARUS 271 8.4 Standards organisations 277 8.5 The International Air Transport Association (IATA) 292 8.6 Industry trade associations 293 9. UTM – Different approaches to defining the concept 298 9.1 The elements that make up a UTM system 298 9.2 The US vision: NASA’s UTM 303 9.3 The European Union vision – U-space 312 9.4 China’s UOMS concept 326 9.5 Japan’s Aerial Industrial Revolution 328 9.6 Nanjing Technical University’s UTM concept 330 9.7 ONERA’s Low Level RPAS Traffic Management system (LLRTM) 331 9.8 Technology provider and other UTM concepts 332 9.9 A6 Alliance 336 Appendices Appendix one: July 2019 EASA draft U-space regulations 339 Appendix two: An index of UTM service providers 357 Appendix three: Drones Amsterdam Declaration 375 Appendix four: The EU standards roadmap for commercial drone Operations 378 Appendix five: ANSI Standardisation Roadmap 381 “The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024” is written by Philip Butterworth- Hayes and published by Unmanned Publications Ltd, located at 61 Davigdor Road, Hove BN31RA, UK. Telephone +44 1273 724 238. Email: [email protected]. Additional material is supplied by Tim Mahon. All rights reserved. No part of this document may be reproduced, stored in retrieval systems or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, or otherwise without the prior permission of the publisher. Infringements of the above right will be liable to prosecution under UK criminal law. While every care has been taken in the compilation of this report to ensure its accuracy at the time of publication (June 2020), the publisher cannot be held responsible for any error or omission or any loss arising therefrom. The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.02 June 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info 4 Market overview The first six months of 2020 has seen the global UAS traffic management (UTM) market fragment, overturning business plans, market assumptions and business strategies. Two events have caused this fragmentation. The first is publication of the FAA’s UTM business model based on the successful Low Altitude Authorization and Notification Capability (LAANC) programme, in which UTM services will be only partly funded from services charges to operators – commercial and other technical services will have to provide the bulk of UTM service supplier (USS) revenue. The second has been a clarification of the potential technical UTM capabilities of mobile network operators (MNOs), From the GUTMA/GSMA 2020 “Connected Skies” series of webinars it is clear that MNOs will not only be able to provide connectivity but integrate UTM services such as geofencing and alerts, dynamic ground-risk determination, virtual “human-eye” piloting, drone tracking and positioning, real-time data analytics, weather condition reporting and forecasting, post-flight data analysis and reports, airspace access authorisations and cloud services into an inter-connected eco-system. For MNOs, their networks will be to support drone operator (command and control/payload download) services in parallel to UTM services. This changes the landscape of the UTM market. Where will this leave USS companies? At first sight, in a very difficult position. There is still clear top-line revenue to be had from working with air navigation service providers (ANSPs) by providing strategic UTM architectures, especially at a national level, and around 2030 there will be a major influx of new business from towns, cities and regions requiring bespoke UTM systems for urban/advanced air mobility concepts. Providing an interface between the UTM and ATM systems is another key role USSs can play. But the prospect of slogging it out with multiple, super-competitive, technically-advanced USS companies in the tactical UTM market is unappealing unless they can develop a range of USPs which will allow them to dominate a sector. No wonder that over the last six months many have begun to re-examine their business models, providing other drone related services such as pizza delivery and construction site operations integration. With 5G, MNOs have a technical capability and financial reserves that make partnership agreements with USS companies highly complex – and have very different views on who will be providing what in the future UTM eco-system (see table one). In the long term USS company business plans will be driven to a large part - in the USA and Europe at least – by the rules of engagement for UTM services currently being drawn up by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). These are currently being drafted by both organisations, with the final iterations likely to be broadly amended from the draft versions following inputs from industry and – in EASA’s case – States. The Market for UAV Traffic Management Services – 2020-2024. Edition 3.02 June 2020 www.unmannedairspace.info 5 Table one: Potential UTM roles for ANSPs, USSPs, CAAs, MNOs and others Who provides what services in a U-space Who provides what services in a U-space eco system – how USS see the future eco system – how MNOs see the future U1 U1 e-Registration - CAA e-Registration - CAA Electronic chip – MNO/ANSP/USSP Electronic chip – MNO Drone operator online registration - CAA Drone operator online registration - CAA Drone online registration - CAA Drone online registration - CAA Registration enforcement - CAA Registration enforcement - CAA Registration Authority -CAA Registration Authority -CAA e-Identification – MNO/ANSP/USSP e-Identification – MNO Drone Identification - MNO/ANSP/USSP Drone Identification - MNO e-identification enforcement – CAA/ANSP e-identification enforcement – CAA/ANSP Identification Authority - CAA Identification Authority - CAA Pre-tactical geo-fencing – USSP/ANSP Pre-tactical geo-fencing – MNO Geo-limitation database – CAA/USSP/ANSP Geo-limitation database – ANSP/MNO Drone operator authentication and Drone operator authentication and authorisation – CAA/ANSP authorisation – CAA/ANSP U2 U2 Tactical geo-fencing – USSP/ANSP/MNO? Tactical geo-fencing – MNO Live airspace data feed – Live airspace data feed – USSP/ANSP/MNO USSP/ANSP/MNO? Area infringement notification – Area infringement notification – USSP/ANSP/MNO USSP/ANSP/MNO? Flight planning management – Flight planning management – USSP/ANSP USSP/ANSP/MNO Automated FPL validation – USSP/ANSP Automated FPL validation – USSP/MNO Operations digital authorisation – Operations digital authorisation – USSP/MNO USSP/ANSP Digital NOTAM – USSP/ANSP/SDSP/MNO Digital NOTAM – USSP/ANSP/SDSP Weather information – SDSP/MNO Weather information – USSP/SDSP Low-altitude wind forecast – SDSP/MNO Low-altitude wind forecast – USSP/SDSP Actual low-altitude wind info – SDSP/MNO Actual low-altitude wind info - SDSP Weather info collection – USSP/MNO Weather info collection - USSP Weather hazard alerts – SDSP/USSP/MNO Weather hazard alerts – SDSP/USSP Tracking – MNO/USSP Tracking – MNO/USSP Radio Positioning infrastructure – MNO/USSP Radio Positioning infrastructure – MNO/USSP Real-time tracking -MNO/USSP Real-time tracking -MNO/USSP Tracking data recording – USSP/MNO Tracking data recording - USSP Monitoring -USSP/MNO Monitoring -USSP Air