Millennium Challenge Georgia Fund RID Impact Evaluation Project Impact Evaluation Design And Data Collection Deliverable E Appendixes September 21, 2009 RID Impact Evaluation Project TBSC, ACT SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS Summary Table Of Contents....................................................................................................... i List Of Tables And Charts ........................................................................................................iii List Of Abbreviations................................................................................................................. v A Context, Key Research Questions And RID IEP Status................................................... 1 A.1 Context For The RID IEP............................................................................................... 1 A.2 Key Research Questions................................................................................................. 3 B Economic And Environmental Descriptions Of RID Cities............................................. 1 B.1 Overview Of RID Cities And Implications For RID IEP............................................... 1 B.2 Kutaisi............................................................................................................................. 3 B.3 Poti.................................................................................................................................. 6 B.4 Kobuleti .......................................................................................................................... 9 B.5 Bakuriani....................................................................................................................... 12 B.6 Borjomi ......................................................................................................................... 14 C History, Theoretical Underpinnings And Practical Use Of CGE Analysis ...................... 1 1.1 Theoretical Origin............................................................................................................ 1 C.1 From Theory To Application.......................................................................................... 3 C.2 Computational Issues...................................................................................................... 3 C.3 Representative Uses Of CGE Analysis And Models...................................................... 4 D Description Of Simplified CGE Model ............................................................................ 1 E Individual Households Impact Group – Water And Sewer Cost...................................... 1 F Individual Household Impact Group – Water Audit ........................................................ 1 G Individual Households Impact Group – Quality Of Life.................................................. 1 H Individual Firms Impact Group ........................................................................................ 1 I Water Utilities Impact Group ........................................................................................... 1 J CGE Key Design Issues And Decisions........................................................................... 1 J.1 Disaggregation Of Household Income............................................................................. 1 J.2 Disaggregation Of Labor ................................................................................................. 4 J.3 Selection Of Starting CGE Model ................................................................................... 5 J.4 Selection Of CGE Solver Software.................................................................................. 9 J.5 Selection Of Productive Sectors .................................................................................... 10 J.6 Selection of non-productive sectors............................................................................... 15 J.7 Final Social Accounting Matrix Design ........................................................................ 16 J.8 Composition Of Social Accounting Matrix (SAM)....................................................... 18 J.9 SAM Balancing.............................................................................................................. 23 J.10 Calibration Methods..................................................................................................... 24 J.11 Forecasting Impact....................................................................................................... 25 K Micro-Simulation Analysis............................................................................................... 1 K.1 Background..................................................................................................................... 1 K.2 Level Of Analysis........................................................................................................... 2 K.3 Micro-Simulation Analysis Linked To CGE Analysis................................................... 3 K.4 The RID IEP Micro-Simulation Model.......................................................................... 4 K.5 Testing The RID IEP Micro Simulation Model On CRRC Data ................................... 6 L List Of RID IEP Metrics................................................................................................... 1 M List Of RID IEP Data Elements........................................................................................ 1 i RID Impact Evaluation Project TBSC, ACT LIST OF TABLES AND CHARTS 1. MCC Approach To Impact Measurement For Water Systems......................................... 3 2. Goal, Objective, Outcome And Activity Of The RID ...................................................... 6 3. Assumptions And Risks For Outcome 3: Improved Potable Water Supply..................... 6 4. Expected Economic Rate Of Return For RID Projects..................................................... 6 5. Expected Number Of Beneficiaries For RID Projects...................................................... 7 6. M&E Indicators Related To The RID Projects................................................................. 7 7. Current Status Of RID Projects ........................................................................................ 1 8. Initial SAM Of The Simplified Economy......................................................................... 2 9. Initial Parameters For The Simplified CGE Model.......................................................... 2 10. Initial Results For The Simplified CGE Model................................................................ 3 11. Representative Results For Large Hotels For The Simplified CGE Model ..................... 3 12. Change In The Number Of Hotels For The Simplified CGE Model................................ 4 13. Change In Prices Of Hotel Service For The Simplified CGE Model............................... 4 14. Change In Nominal Wages For The Simplified CGE Model........................................... 4 15. Change In Nominal Wages For Simplified CGE Model .................................................. 5 16. Effect Of Decreasing Fixed Costs On Real Wages For Simplified CGE Model ............. 5 17. Tentative Household Types .............................................................................................. 2 18. SAM Using Three Household Types................................................................................ 3 19. Evaluation of Static vs. Dynamic Models ........................................................................ 6 20. Evaluation Of Four Types Of Starting CGE Models........................................................ 9 21. Cities In Which Particular Sectors Are Intensive Users Of Water................................. 11 22. Evaluation And Selection Of SAM Sectors.................................................................... 13 23. Scale For Defining Sector Relevance For RID IEP........................................................ 14 24. SAM Columns And Rows According To International Standard .................................. 15 25. SAM Columns And Rows According To International Standard .................................. 17 26. SAM Columns And Rows For RID IEP Variant............................................................ 18 27. Composition Of Columns And Rows Of SAM .............................................................. 19 28. Schematic Of Estimating Impact From RID Project ...................................................... 25 29. Schematic Of Forecasting Impact From RID Project..................................................... 26 30. Four Possible Scenarios To Test For Forecasting Purposes........................................... 27 31. Example Of A Micro-Simulation Showing Effects On Distribution Of Household Income........................................................................................................................................ 2 32. Schematic Output Of RID IEP Micro-Simulation On Distribution Of Household Income2 33. Top-Down Approach framework...................................................................................... 4 34. Behavioral Part Of Micro-Simulation Model (Bourguignon 2003) ................................. 5 35. Accounting Part Of Micro-Simulation Model (Bourguignon 2003) ................................ 5 36. Linking CGE Model Results In Micro Simulation Model (Bourguignon 2003).............. 6 37.