ReportNo. 8249-VN Vietnam Stabilizationand StructuralReforms An Economic Report April30, 1990 Public Disclosure Authorized CountryOperations Division CountryDepartment 11 AsiaRegion FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Docunentof theWorld Bank Thisdocument has a restricteddistribution and may be usedby recipients Public Disclosure Authorized only in theperformnance of their officialduties. Its contentsmay not otherwise be disclosedwithout World Bankauthorization. Currency Equlvalents The Vietnamese currency is the dong (D). A currency reform in 1985 replaced ten old dong with one new dong. Calendar 1989 December 1989 US$1.00 = D 3,996 US$1.00 = D 4,000 D 1,000 = US $0.25 D 1,000 = US$ 0.25 Fiscal Year January 1 - December 31 Wei2hts and Measures Metric System Ust of Acronvms ASEAN - Association of South East Asian Nations COMECON - Council of Mutual Economic Assistance (CMEA) EEC - European Economic Community FAO - Food and Agricultural Organization GDP - Gross Domestic Product GNP - Gross National Product GVAP - Gross Value of Agricultural Product IMF - International Monetary Fund MPS - Material Product System NFA - Net Foreign Assets NMP - Net Material Product TR - Transferable Ruble UNDP - United Nations Development Programme UNESCO - United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization UNICEF - United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY VIET NAM ECONOMIC REPORT Table of Contents Page No. SUFMARY.i... I. COUNTRY SETTING . .1 A. Introduction ..... .. B. Physical Setting and Human Resource Endowments 2 C. The Economy .... 7 II. RECENTECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS ............... 12 A. An Overview of Economic Reforms, 1986-89 .12 B. Developments in Output and Prices . 14 C. Public Finance .21 D. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates . 26 E. Balance of Payments and External Debt . 29 F. Prospects for Growth in 1990 and Beyond .33 III. AGRICULTURE, INDUSTRY AND TRADE .36 A. Introduction .36 B. Agricu .ture . I . 36 C. Industry .48 D. Foreign Trade .58 E. Creating Productive Employment . 65 This report was prepared by a mission that visited Viet Nam in August/September 1989. The mission team included Messrs. Gerhard Pohl (mission leader), David Dollar (macro and industry), Zdenek Drabek (macro), Donald Brown (industry), Gerhard Menckhoff (transport), David Klaus (human resources), Patrick Lenain (IMF, balance of payments), Peter Petri (consultant, trade) and Jean-Paul Pinard (energy). Mr. Danny M. Leipziger was senior advisor to the mission, which was assisted by Chanaka R. de Silva (senior country officer) and Philippe Annez (Resident Mission Bangkok). Mr. Thomas Wiens prepared the agricultural annex and parts of the main report on the basis of a joint FAO/ World Bank mission in March/April 1989. Mr. Su-Yong Song provided quantitative analyses, including a re-estimation of national accounts. Peer review was provided by Alan Gelb, Tomothy King, and Johannes Linn. The report was discussed with the government in April 1990. This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performance of their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization. Page No. IV. TRAitSPORT,ENERGY AND COMMUNICATIONS . 67 A. Introduction . 67 B. Transport . 68 C. Energy . 73 D. Telecommunications . 82 V. HUMAN RES2tTRCES . 83 A. Introdiction . 83 B. Present Status . 83 C. Recent Policy Reforms . 88 D. Issues and Options .... 91 VI. MANAGING A SOCIALIST iS'dKETECONOMY . 96 A. Sequencing of Reforms . 97 B. Economic Management . 99 C. Fostering a Supply Response . 104 D. Creating Factor Markets ... 109 E. Reducing the Conflicts: External Financing . 112 TABLES. FIGURES. AND STATISTICALAPPENDIX Tables Table 1.1: Economic Characteristics of Viet Nam and Selected Asian Countries . 1 Table 2.1: National Income and Estimated GDP, 1984-89 15 Table 2.2: Saving and Investment, 1985-89 . 16 Table 2.3: Distribution of Public Investment Among Sectors, 1985-89 . 18 Table 2.4: Monthly Inflation Rate, 1987-89 . 19' Table 2.5: Official Retail "Business" Prices and Free Market Prices, 1988-89 . 21 Table 2.6: Summary of Budgetary Operations, 1984-89 . 22 Table 2.7: Analysis of the Public Sector Deficit, 1988 . 23 Table 2.8: Balance of Payments, 1985-88 . 31 Table 2.9: External Debt and Arrears, 1984-88 . 32 Table 3.1: Foodgrain Production, 1984-88 . 37 Table 3.2: Structure of Production in Low-income countries, 1987-88 .... 48 Table 3.3: Value of Industrial Output by Industry, 1985-88 . 52 Table 3.4: Trade Structure by Commodities . 61 Table 3.5: Direction of Trade with the Convertible Area, 1985-88 . 62 Table 4.1: Paved Roads in Selected Countries . 68 Page No. Flau Figure 1.15 Nutritional Indicators for Viet Nam and Selected Asian Countries, 1985-86 . 6 Figure 2.1: Monthly Inflation Rate, 1985-89 . 13 Figure 3.1: Fertilizer Application and Yields, 1986 . 40 Figure 3.2: Organization of the Ministry of Light Industry . .50 StatisticalAppend... .......... 115 VIET NAM ECONOMICREPORT COUNTRYDATA SHEET Area: 832,000sq km Population(1989): 64.4 million Density (per sq km, 1989): 194 Rate of growth: 2.1% PopulationCharacteristics (1989) Health (1987) Crude birth rat. (por 1,000): 31 Infantmortality (per 1,000): 48 Crude death rat (per 1,000): 8 Populationper physician ('000): 2.86 Populationper hospitalbed ('000): 0.41 Income Distribution Access to Safe Water (1986) X of nat;oaa:income % of Popuilation - urban: 80 Highest 10%: n.a. - rural: 37 Lowest 20X: n.a. - total: 34 Nutrition(1986) Education(1988) Per capita calorie intake (cal/day):2,025 Primary schoolenrollment: 100 Per capita protein intake ((g/day): 39 (% of relevantage group) GNP Per Capita (USS 1988): 109 Annual Rate of Growth GROSSNATIONAL PRODUCT (1988) (% Constant Prices ) USS min % 1984-87 1988 GDPat MarketPrices 6,912 100.0 3.9 6.9 Gross DomesticInvestment 668 8.6 n.a. n.a. Gross NationalSaving -168 -2.0 n.s. n.e. Current AccountBalance -726 -10.6 - - Export of Goods 709 10.3 na. n.a. Importof Goods 1,368 19.7 n.s. n.a. OUTPUT, EMPLOYMENTAND PRODUCTIVITY(1988) Value Added Labor Force V A per Worker US$ mln %MiWn % US % Agriculture 2,765 40.0 n.a. n.a. n.e. n.s. Industry 2,074 30.0 n.s. n.a. n.e. n.a. Service 2,074 30.0 n.a. na. n.a. n.s. Total/Average 6.912 100.0 28.9 100.0 239 100.0 GOVERNMENTFINANCE CENTRALGOVERNMENT 1988 1984 1988 (bin dong) (% of GNP) CurrentReceIpts 1,817 14.6 11.4 Current Expenditure 2,136 13.4 16.1 CurrentSurplus -518 1.1 -3.7 CapitalExpenditure 649 4.1 3.9 MONEY,CREDIT AND PRICES 1984 1985 1988 1987 1988 -------------------- …(bndong)----------- Money Supply (M2) (end of year) n.e. na. 1II 471 2,38s (Percentageof Index) Money as X of CDP (average of year) n.n n.o. 13.9 14.4 18.9 GenoralPrice Index (CPI) 807 588 3,461 13,849 56,530 (1982=100) Annual P-reentageCh&ngoe In: Goneral Prico Ind-x n.u 91.5 488.9 301.8 808.2 BALANCEOF PAYMENTS 1986 1986 1987 1988 …_________------…(US3$i-n)------------ Exports of Goods 497 494 599 709 Imports of Goods 903 1,120 1,142 1,865 Trade Balance -406 -827 -543 -666 Service Balance -87 -55 -87 -83 Net Transfers 20 27 17 13 Balance of Current Account -463 -865 -593 -726 Not ULT Borrowing 136 2s3 382 243 Disbursoment 387 617 691 887 Amortization(scheduled) 231 264 229 444 Debt rescheduling 262 0 0 24 Changes In Arrears 31 317 297 396 IncreaseIn Reserves 0 -2 0 0 Gross Reserves(End-Year) 17 1s 1S 1S EXCHANGERATE Annual Average 1986 1987 1988 1989 US8l = Dong 125 S01 2,047 3,998 1,000 Dong = USSI 8.00 2.00 0.49 0.25 MERCHANDISEEXPORTS (Average1986-ad) USS min X Agricultureand Forestry 201 33.4 MarineProducts 112 18.7 Handicrafts 38 8.3 Petroleum 36 6.0 Coffee 20 3.4 Total Exports 601 100.0 EXTERNALDEBT (December 1988) USS mln ULT 6,418 ST 61S Total DOD 7.033 DEBT SERVICERATIO (1988) 24X IBRD/IDA LENDING(6/30/89) IBRD IDA ----…(USS min)------ Outstandingand Disbursed 0 59.4 Undisbursed 0 0 OutstandingIncluding Undisbureed 0 69.4 Viet Nam Stabilization and Structural Reforms SUMMARY A. Introduction 1. Viet Nam is in the midst of bold reform that puts it in the forefront of socialist economies attempting to their rejuvenate their economic systems. Price and exchange rate reforms in early 1989 went further than any previous such reform in planned economies. The objective of the reform is to move to a system of allocating most goods and services through markets, by liberalizing prices and decentralizing management to productive units. Furthermore, devaluation of the exchange rate and liberalization of foreign trade is shifting the economy's orientation from an inward bias to an outward orientation. These policies, unilaterally adopted by government, should initiate a period of sustained growth in Viet Nam's per capita income, provided government stands by the reform program during the difficult initial adjustment period. 2. As of March 1990, the stabilization program had been in place for a full year, and the initial response of the economy has been very encouraging. Inflation for the 12 months ending March 1990 was 18.6Z, down from 400Z during 1988. Devaluation and trade liberalization resulted in a 100% increase in exports to the convertible area during 1989. Output has increased substan- tially in agriculture and in the dynamic private sector, which is concentrated in light industry and services. It is quite remarkable that these results have been achieved with little external assistance. Aid from the Comecon countries is being sharply cut back during 1989 and 1990, and during 1989 there was a net resource transfer from Viet Nam to the convertible area as the country kept current on its interest payments to the IMF and made some payments of principal to official creditors.