( רמה כ ז מל ו תשר מה ו ד י ע י ן ( למ מ" מ( ה ש ל מ כרמ ז מה י עד מל ו ד י ע י ן ו רטל ו ר ט ןיעידומ ע ה ר Spotlight on Global Jihad January 8-2, 2020 Highlights of the events The dramatic events that occurred this week, especially the elimination of Qods Force Commander Qassem Soleimani and the firing of missiles in response at two US bases in Iraq could, in the ITIC’s assessment, impair the effectiveness of the US-led campaign against ISIS. This is reflected in this week’s announcement by the US army that it has suspended military activity against ISIS because it is now committed to prioritizing the defense of the Iraqi bases that host the Coalition forces. Despite US Secretary of Defense Mark Esper saying that the US will continue its efforts against ISIS, pressure exerted on the forces of the US and the Coalition countries in Iraq could eventually lead to a withdrawal of the forces from Iraq, thus harming the campaign against ISIS. On the other hand, removing the forces or, alternatively, having them concentrate mainly on defending themselves, is expected to raise the morale of ISIS operatives and provide it with an opportunity to accelerate the process of restoring its military capabilities and increase the scope of its terrorist activity, mainly in the Iraqi arena. In the Syrian arena, there was no change in the situation on the ground this week. The Syrian army has not yet resumed the ground offensive in the Idlib region, which was halted on January 5, 2020. The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham initiated a counterattack, in which two car bombs were blown up, killing dozens of Syrian soldiers. The counterattack was curbed by Syrian army artillery and airstrikes. In the Euphrates Valley, ISIS’s intensive activity continued. This included attacks on a Kurdish Internal Security force headquarters (nine dead) and a bus carrying Syrian soldiers (seven dead). In the Iraqi arena, ISIS conducted its activity at low intensity. Prominent forms of attacks this week included the activation of IEDs against vehicles of the Iraqi security forces, sniper fire, and targeted killings. The Iraqi security forces continued their counterterrorist activities at low intensity. 004-20 2 This week, there has been a decrease in ISIS’s activity around the world, with the exception of Northern Sinai, where “routine” attacks against the Egyptian security forces continued. There was one unusual incident in Russia, where two Caucasus Province operatives carried out a stabbing and ramming attack against members of the Ingushetia police force (two dead). Idlib region Overview This week, the Syrian army did not resume its attacks against the rebel organizations in the rural area of Maarat Nu'man. At the same time, Russian and Syrian airstrikes continued. The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham attempted to mount a counterattack east of Maarat Nu'man, which included the detonation of two car bombs. According to reports by the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham, the Syrian troops sustained dozens of fatalities in the explosion of the two car bombs. Halting the counterattack east of Maarat Nu'man On January 2, 2020, operatives of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham and other rebel organizations mounted an attack against Syrian forces about 12 km east of Maarat Nu'man. The Syrian army halted the attack by gun and rocket fire. According to Syrian regime reports, the rebel organizations sustained many casualties (SANA, January 2, 2020). Artillery fire by the Syrian army to halt the attack (SANA, January 2, 2020) During the attempted attack, the operatives of the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al- Sham detonated two car bombs against Syrian army forces southeast of Maarat Nu'man: The first car bomb was detonated against Syrian army troops. The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham released a video taken by a quadcopter, documenting the 004-20 3 explosion (Ibaa, January 2, 2020). According to a report by the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham, more than 20 soldiers (probably from the “Tiger forces”) were killed in the explosion and over 15 soldiers were wounded (Ibaa, January 3, 2020). Right: The car bomb (in green) approaching the Syrian troops (in red). Left: The car bomb explosion (Ibaa, January 2, 2020) The second car bomb was detonated against Syrian army outposts near the scene of the first explosion. The Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham released another video showing the car bomb advancing on a dirt road and soldiers fleeing moments before the detonation (Ibaa, January 2, 2020). According to a report by the Headquarters for the Liberation of Al-Sham, about eight Syrian soldiers (probably from the “Tiger forces”) were killed in the explosion and over six others were wounded (Ibaa, January 3, 2020). Right: The second car bomb (in green) moments before its detonation against Syrian army outposts (in red). Left: The explosion of the second car bomb (Ibaa, January 2, 2020) Airstrikes On January 2, 2020, Russian fighter jets carried out airstrikes in the area of the village of Al- Tah, about 12 km southeast of Maarat Nu'man (Edlib Media Center Facebook page, January 2, 2020). On January 4, 2020, Syrian fighter jets carried out airstrikes against targets in the city of Maarat Nu'man and its environs, the city of Saraqib (15 km southeast of Idlib), and the M5 highway (Aleppo-Damascus). In addition, Syrian helicopters dropped barrel bombs in the 004-20 4 area of Maarat Nu'man (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, January 4, 2020). On January 5, 2020, Russian fighter jets carried out airstrikes in the rural area of Maarat Nu'man (Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, January 4, 2020). Smoke rising after the explosion of a barrel bomb dropped from a Syrian helicopter on a village southeast of Maarat Nu'man (Edlib Media Center, January 4, 2020) The Euphrates Valley ISIS continued its activity in the Euphrates Valley. Outstanding event this week was the detonation of a car bomb in the headquarters of the Kurdish Internal Security forces, southeast of Al-Mayadeen. ISIS reported that nine members of the Kurdish Internal Security had been killed in the explosion. Another outstanding event was an attack against a Syrian army bus about 30 km southeast of Al-Mayadeen (seven soldiers killed). At the same time, attacks continued in the usual forms, which included the activation of IEDs against SDF and Syrian army vehicles and targeted killings of SDF fighters and intelligence operatives. The area of Al-Mayadeen and Albukamal Following are ISIS’s main activities (mainly according to the organization’s claims of responsibility): On January 6, 2020, a Syrian Air Force Intelligence operative was shot and wounded in the village of Jaradi, about 20 km southeast of Al-Mayadeen (Telegram, January 6, 2020). On January 6, 2020, a Syrian army bus was targeted by machine gun fire in the desert, near the village of Al-Duweir (about 30 km southeast of Al-Mayadeen). Seven Syrian soldiers were killed and 14 others wounded (Telegram, January 6, 2020; Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, January 6, 2020). 004-20 5 The bus carrying Syrian soldiers, which was attacked by ISIS (Deir ez-Zor 24, January 6, 2020) On January 5, 2020, an IED was activated against an SDF vehicle on the road leading to the Al-Omar oil field, about 20 km east of Al-Mayadeen (Telegram, January 5, 2020). On January 4, 2020, an IED was activated against an SDF vehicle on the road leading to the Al-Omar oil field, about 20 km east of Al-Mayadeen. No casualties were reported (Telegram, January 5, 2020). On January 4, 2020, the house of a Syrian army “agent” was targeted by machine gun fire in Darnaj, about 10 km southeast of Al-Mayadeen. The “agent” was killed (Telegram, January 5, 2020). On January 2, 2020, an IED was activated against a Syrian army truck carrying a gun in the Al-Mayadeen Desert. The truck was put out of commission (Telegram, January 3, 2020). On January 1, 2020, a car bomb driven by a suicide bomber was detonated against Kurdish Internal Security forces (Asayish) near their headquarters in Abu Hamam, about 30 km southeast of Al-Mayadeen. Nine operatives of the Kurdish Internal Security forces were killed, including a commander. Several others were wounded (Telegram, January 1, 2020). 004-20 6 Right: The scene of the car bomb explosion in the village of Abu Hamam. Left: Ruined building at the scene of the explosion (Deir ez-Zor 24 Twitter account, January 1, 2020) On January 1, 2020, an SDF intelligence operative was targeted by machine gun fire in the village of Diban, 5 km east of Al-Mayadeen. He was killed (Telegram, January 1, 2020). On January 1, 2020, the house of an SDF Intelligence commander was targeted by machine gun fire in the village of Al-Tiyanah, 8 km southeast of Al-Mayadeen. The commander was killed (Telegram, January 1, 2020). On December 31, 2019, an IED was activated against a Syrian army vehicle in the Al- Mayadeen Desert (Telegram, January 1, 2020). Coalition and SDF counterterrorist activity SDF fighters, in collaboration with Coalition forces, carried out an operation against ISIS in the Deir ez-Zor Province. Sixteen ISIS operatives were apprehended. Their capture reportedly prevented an attack in the immediate future against the Coalition and SDF forces (Iraq/Syria)@SOJTFOIR, Operation Inherent Resolve’s Twitter account, January 2, 2020). The Al-Hasakah area Release of ISIS families from the Al-Hol displaced persons camp Soon, the SDF forces are expected to release about 400 additional family members of ISIS operatives from the Al-Hol displaced persons camp (about 40 km east of Al-Hasakah).