The Acadian Peninsula in 2030 The Role of Immigration to Support a Sustainable Regional Economy Prepared by: David Campbell, Jupia Consultants Inc. for the New Brunswick Multicultural Council April 2018 NewConversationsNB.com Table of Contents Introduction: New Brunswick’s Biggest Challenge 3 The Acadian Peninsula: A Unique and Important Role in the New Brunswick Economy 3 The Acadian Peninsula’s Shrinking Talent Pipeline 4 If the Workforce Starts to Decline in Earnest, What’s at Risk? 5 A Significant Number of Workers are Heading towards Retirement 7 Employment Insurance and Unemployment 7 Why are Young People Still Leaving? 7 The Acadian Peninsula’s Aging Entrepreneurs 8 Looking Towards the Future: Sustaining High Quality Public Services 8 Retirement Communities: A Viable Economic Development Strategy? 9 The Role of Immigration 9 The Acadian Peninsula in 2030 12 The factors contributing to this decline in the Introduction: New workforce include the fact that we are getting older Brunswick’s Biggest as a province, more of us are retiring from work and we have fewer students in our primary and secondary Challenge schools. As a consequence, employers are finding Arguably the largest barrier to New Brunswick’s future it harder to attract qualified workers. Addressing economic growth is the currently declining labour the challenge of a declining workforce means the force. The number of people in the province working difference between a province that is stagnant and or looking for work is less now than it was a decade struggling to fund high quality public services and one ago. that is growing and adapting to a rapidly changing, global economy. From the 1970s through to the early 2000s, the provincial labour force expanded, on average, by thousands of people every year.1 Entrepreneurs and The Acadian Peninsula: A businesses were able to use this expanding pool of Unique and Important Role in workers to create new jobs and expand industries across the province. Despite several recessions along the New Brunswick Economy the way, the New Brunswick economy could be The Acadian Peninsula plays an important role counted on to grow, on average, by at least two to in the New Brunswick economy. It is a main hub three percent per year. for the province’s fishing and seafood processing industries. There are over a dozen seafood processing operations, employing 2,300 people, and another FIGURE 1: TOTAL LABOUR FORCE GROWTH/DECLINE (000S) - NEW BRUNSWICK 2,000 employed directly in the fishing sector. In recent years it has become one of the top wild blueberry producing regions in North America. At the time of 45.5 the 2016 Census, 500 people were employed on farms in the region. The Acadian Peninsula is also a cultural and tourism centre for the province. Without 26.7 25.9 the Acadian Peninsula, New Brunswick would lose 19.3 an important fishing, agriculture and manufacturing region. Across Gloucester County there are more than 3,000 businesses, including 100 in manufacturing, over 100 in transportation and warehousing, and 17 in seafood product preparation and packaging. -10.2 There are also 14 recreational vehicle (RV) parks and campgrounds across the county. But like the rest of the province, the Acadian Peninsula 1977-1985 1986-1992 1993-1999 2000-2008 2009-2017 is aging fast. The median age3 is rising and the number of young people is declining, and this is Source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Tables 282-0002. starting to negatively impact the region. In order to ensure the Acadian Peninsula continues to thrive, Something changed around 2007. The provincial there will need to be a robust “talent pipeline” to workforce stopped growing and started to decline support the region’s important industries. Otherwise for the first time in history.2 There is no doubt this is business investment will slowly leave the region and a main reason why the average annual economic dampen key sectors such as fishing, tourism and growth rate has dropped to only 0.5 percent over the seafood processing. past decade. 1. Net growth in the labour market - the difference between those joining the workforce and those leaving through migration, retirement, etc. 2. Since accurate labour market data has been collected. 3. The age at which one half of the population is younger and the other half is older. New Brunswick Multicultural Council | New Conversations: The Acadian Peninsula in 2030 3 Figure 2 shows the population trend for those under Geographic Definitions: Acadian Peninsula the age of 20 and those over the age of 65 across the Throughout this document three geographic regions county. will be referenced: 1) the municipalities located in the Acadian Peninsula, 2) the Acadian Peninsula in total As shown in Table 1, the municipalities in the region and 3) Gloucester County. All three are used because are losing population and aging faster than Canada Statistics Canada publishes different sets of data based as a whole. Bas-Caraquet, Caraquet, Shippagan on geographic region. The components of annual and Lamèque all have a median age above 50. In the 1970s, the median age in Gloucester County was population growth, for example, are only available similar to the national average. Now there is a wide at the county level. For this document, the Acadian and growing gap. The median age in the county was Peninsula includes the municipalities of: Tracadie, 51.1 in 2016 while it was only 41.2 across the country. In Saint-Léolin, Paquetville, Saint-Isidore, Bas-Caraquet, other words, the average Gloucester County resident Caraquet, Le Goulet, Shippagan, Lamèque, Sainte- is 24 percent older than the average Canadian. Marie-Saint-Raphaël, Bertrand, Néguac, Grande-Anse and Maisonnette. TABLE 1: RECENT POPULATION TRENDS – SELECTED ACADIAN PENINSULA MUNICIPALITIES Population, % change Median The Acadian Peninsula’s Jurisdiction: 2016 since 2011 age Bas-Caraquet 1,305 -5.4% 53.6 Shrinking Talent Pipeline Caraquet 4,248 +1.9% 50.5 In 2001 there were 178 young people (under the Shippagan 2,580 -1.9% 50.2 age of 20) living in Gloucester County for every 100 Lamèque 1,285 -10.3% 54.0 people over the age of 65. That year there were Tracadie 16,114 -0.1% 49.3 over 19,000 people living in Gloucester County under Gloucester 78,444 -1.9% 51.1 the age of 20. This provided a pool of young talent New Brunswick 747,101 -0.5% 45.7 that businesses could draw upon to grow. Now that Canada 35,151,728 +5.0% 41.2 number has declined to 12,000 (in 2017) – a drop of nearly 40 percent. There are now only 64 young Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census. people in the county for every 100 people over the age of 65. The Opportunity: Refocusing on Growth The population trend actually represents a great FIGURE 2: POPULATION TREND IN GLOUCESTER opportunity. The Acadian Peninsula features small, COUNTY BY SELECTED AGE GROUP (2001 TO 2017) uncongested communities with a lower cost of living. They benefit from close proximity to the cities of 25,000 Bathurst and Miramichi with their clusters of retail, 19,387 18,756 recreation, personal and business services. 20,000 15,000 Among people who own their home, only a little over nine percent across Gloucester County spend 10,000 10,892 12,039 30 percent or more of their income on shelter costs 5,000 (mortgage, home insurance, etc.) – 45 percent less than the country as a whole (shown in Figure 3). The average cost of an owned dwelling in Tracadie is 69 2011 2017 2013 2015 2001 2007 2003 2009 2005 percent lower than the average across the country. Population under 20 Population over 65 Attracting people to live and work in the Acadian Source: Statistics Canada annual population estimates. Peninsula should be an important focus in the coming years. New Brunswick Multicultural Council | New Conversations: The Acadian Peninsula in 2030 4 FIGURE 3: % OF OWNER HOUSEHOLDS SPENDING 30% OR and support services (contact centres), mining, MORE OF INCOME ON SHELTER COSTS wholesale trade, and information and cultural industries. 16.6 TABLE 2: EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY AND LOCATION QUOTIENT 9.2 9.7 Gloucester County 7.5 2016 3.7 Labour % Change LQ 2016 Force Since 2006 CAN = 1.00* All Industries 37,075 -5% Canada Shippagan Lamèque Gloucester Tracadie 11 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 2,795 -11% 3.16 Source: Statistics Canada 2016 Census. 21 Mining and oil and gas extraction 940 -37% 1.74 22 Utilities 230 -18% 0.85 23 Construction 3,330 +26% 1.23 If the Workforce Starts to 31-33 Manufacturing 4,630 -9% 1.46 Decline in Earnest, What’s 41 Wholesale trade 705 -27% 0.53 44-45 Retail trade 4,750 -3% 1.13 at Risk? 48-49 Transportation and warehousing 1,045 -11% 0.60 The workforce in the region is starting to tighten. 51 Information and According to Statistics Canada the size of the labour cultural industries 355 -21% 0.43 force across Gloucester County declined by five 52 Finance and percent between 2006 and 2016. Employers are insurance 1,105 0% 0.70 increasingly finding it hard to find qualified workers. 53 Real estate and The “tightening” of the labour market will directly rental and leasing 205 -24% 0.31 impact the ability of employers to recruit and retain 54 Professional, workers who have the interest and skills to work the scientific and jobs on offer. technical services 990 -1% 0.37 56 Administrative and Tables 2 and 3 show something called the “location support** 870 -35% 0.55 quotients” for Gloucester County and for the Acadian 61 Educational Peninsula. A location quotient (LQ) provides a simple services 2,350 -8% 0.88 representation of the industries for which the area has 62 Health care and higher or lower concentrations of workers compared social assistance 5,390 +20% 1.27 to the national economy.