Shandong, China Electric Sector Simulation Assumption Book August 2002 MIT LFEE 2002-002 RP Massachusetts Institute of Technology Laboratory for Energy and the Environment 77 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02139-4307 http://lfee.mit.edu/publications/ Publication No. LFEE 2002-002 RP ALLIANCE FOR GLOBAL SUSTAINABILITY SHANDONG, CHINA ELECTRIC SECTOR SIMULATION ASSUMPTIONS BOOK CHINA ENERGY TECHNOLOGY PROGRAM MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY Laboratory for Energy and the Environment Analysis Group for Regional Electricity Alternatives MIT Stephen Connors, Chia-Chin Cheng, Christopher Hansen, Jennifer Barker ETH-Zürich Warren Schenler August 2002 SHANDONG, CHINA – ELECTRIC SECTOR SIMULATION ASSUMPTIONS BOOK Table of Contents CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW OF ELECTRIC SECTOR SIMULATION TASK AND SHANDONG SCENARIOS Introduction ................................................................................................................................................1.1 Scenario-Based Multi-Attribute Tradeoff Analysis...............................................................................1.1 Overview of Shandong ESS Scenarios ....................................................................................................1.5 Overview of Shandong ESS Attributes...................................................................................................1.5 An Overview of Shandong Province ......................................................................................................1.12 (1.15) CHAPTER 2: FUTURE FOSSIL AND NUCLEAR GENERATION TECHNOLOGY CHARACTERISTICS AND COSTS Introduction ................................................................................................................................................2.1 Cross-Cutting Technological Assumptions ...........................................................................................2.2 Sulfur Control Technologies..........................................................................................................2.2 Particulate Control Systems ..........................................................................................................2.3 Nitrogen Oxides Control Systems................................................................................................2.4 Solid Waste.......................................................................................................................................2.4 Cooling Systems..............................................................................................................................2.5 Future Generation Technologies..............................................................................................................2.5 Conventional Coal Generation......................................................................................................2.5 Clean Coal Technologies................................................................................................................2.6 Oil Fuel Generation Technologies ................................................................................................2.7 Natural Gas Generation Technologies.........................................................................................2.7 Nuclear Power Generation Technologies....................................................................................2.8 Technology Availability In Shandong ....................................................................................................2.9 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................2.10 (2.10) CHAPTER 3: FUTURE ALTERNATIVE FUELED AND RENEWABLE GENERATION CHARACTERISTICS AND COSTS Introduction ................................................................................................................................................3.1 Coal Bed Methane......................................................................................................................................3.2 Biomass........................................................................................................................................................3.3 Shandong Biomass Resources.......................................................................................................3.3 Municipal Solid Waste ..............................................................................................................................3.3 Shandong Population, Income And Solid Waste Production ..................................................3.4 Chinese MSW Characteristics And Trends.................................................................................3.5 Municipal Solid Waste Fuel And Energy Conversion Technologies ......................................3.6 Direct Combustion of MSW..............................................................................................................3.6 Standard Landfill Gas Production.....................................................................................................3.7 Bioreactor Landfill Gas Production ...................................................................................................3.8 Anaerobic Digestion .......................................................................................................................3.11 Windpower .................................................................................................................................................3.12 CETP/ESS AGREA – MIT ANALYSIS GROUP FOR REGIONAL ELECTRICITY ALTERNATIVES (pg. TOC.1) Wind Turbine Technology.............................................................................................................3.13 Windpower Economics ..................................................................................................................3.13 Solar and Hydro for Power Generation in Shandong ..........................................................................3.14 Technology Economics and Deployment...............................................................................................3.14 (3.15) CHAPTER 4: SULFUR CONTROLS ON EXISTING AND NEW GENERATION Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................4.1 Regulatory Background ............................................................................................................................4.1 Candidate Flue Gas Desulfurization Technologies..............................................................................4.1 Determining Costs .....................................................................................................................................4.3 Modeling Approach...................................................................................................................................4.5 Modeling Assumptions.............................................................................................................................4.5 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................4.6 (4.6) CHAPTER 5: PARTICULATE MATTER CONTROLS ON EXISTING AND NEW GENERATION Introduction ................................................................................................................................................5.1 Classification Of Particulate Matter Emissions From Power Plants...................................................5.1 1. PM Categorization By Source And Formation Mechanism .................................................5.1 2. PM Categorization By Chemical Composition.......................................................................5.1 3. PM Categorization By Particle Size..........................................................................................5.2 Particulate Matter Control........................................................................................................................5.3 Wet Particulate Scrubbers..............................................................................................................5.3 Cyclones ...........................................................................................................................................5.3 Electrostatic Precipitator ...............................................................................................................5.3 Baghouse ..........................................................................................................................................5.4 Model Inputs...............................................................................................................................................5.4 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................................5.4 (5.5) CHAPTER 6: CLASSIFICATION OF STEAM COAL FOR ELECTRIC SECTOR SIMULATION SCENARIOS Introduction ................................................................................................................................................6.1 What Is Coal?..............................................................................................................................................6.1 Types of Steam Coal ..................................................................................................................................6.4