Overview of Technical Analysis for the Zimbabwe Resilience Building Fund Final Report 28 April 2016 Contents 1. Background .................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Overview of resilience analysis framework ................................................................................... 4 3. The Context ................................................................................................................................... 6 3.1 Economic context .......................................................................................................................... 6 3.2 Social Context ................................................................................................................................ 7 3.3 Political Context ............................................................................................................................. 8 3.4 Overview of Livelihoods ................................................................................................................ 8 3.5 Geographic patterns of shocks, food and nutrition security ....................................................... 10 3.5.1 Shocks .......................................................................................................................................... 10 3.5.2 Food insecurity and stunting ....................................................................................................... 11 4. Hazard Analysis ............................................................................................................................ 13 4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 13 4.2 Hazard Profile .............................................................................................................................. 14 4.0 Analysis of drivers of food and nutrition insecurity. ................................................................... 16 4.1 Possible research questions emanating from this summary analysis of ZimVAC data ............... 18 5.0 Evidence of drivers of food security from detailed household analysis of ZimVAC data (2013/14 and 2014/15) ............................................................................................................................... 18 5.1 Demographics .............................................................................................................................. 20 5.2 Chronic illness .............................................................................................................................. 20 5.3 WASH ........................................................................................................................................... 21 5.4 Livestock Ownership .................................................................................................................... 21 5.5 Group Membership and access to credit .................................................................................... 22 5.6 Stocks ........................................................................................................................................... 22 5.7 Access to irrigation ...................................................................................................................... 22 5.8 Income sources and expenditures............................................................................................... 23 5.8.1 Income sources ............................................................................................................................ 23 5.8.2 Expenditures ................................................................................................................................ 24 5.8.3 Food Sources ............................................................................................................................... 24 5.9 Coping Strategies ......................................................................................................................... 26 5.10 Food Consumption ...................................................................................................................... 26 5.11 Summary of Analysis of ZimVAC data ......................................................................................... 26 6.0 Drivers of Stunting ....................................................................................................................... 28 i | P a g e 6.1 Demographics .............................................................................................................................. 29 6.2 Breastfeeding .............................................................................................................................. 30 6.3 Sanitation facilities ...................................................................................................................... 30 6.4 Asset count .................................................................................................................................. 31 6.5 Financial inclusion ....................................................................................................................... 31 6.5 Type of dwelling .......................................................................................................................... 31 6.6 Geographic Patterns of stunting ................................................................................................. 32 7.0 Resilience Capacities ................................................................................................................... 32 8.0 Well-being outcomes................................................................................................................... 37 8.1 Problems Analysis and formulation of the Theory of Change ..................................................... 38 9.0 Monitoring and evaluation framework ....................................................................................... 40 9.1 Operation of the resilience fund ................................................................................................. 43 9.1.1 Annual performance monitoring ................................................................................................. 43 9.1.2 Recurrent high-frequency monitoring......................................................................................... 44 9.1.3 The impact evaluation ................................................................................................................. 44 9.2 Crisis modifier .............................................................................................................................. 46 Appendices Appendix 1: List of candidate indicators for household resilience analysis. .......................................... 50 Appendix 2: Draft Measuring Community Resilience Tool ..................................................................... 53 Appendix 3: Proportions of combinations of the mean hazard index per district ................................ 59 Appendix 4: Explanation of some causal pathways from the problem tree and recommended activities. ...................................................................................................................................... 61 Citation: UNDP and WFP. (2016). Overview of Technical Analysis for the Zimbabwe Resilience Building Fund. United Nations Development Framework and World Food Programme. Harare, Zimbabwe. ii | P a g e List of Tables Table 1: Description of outputs and activities of the assignment ................................................................ 2 Table 2: Implication of resilience principles on the analytical approach ...................................................... 5 Table 3: Description of hazards and parameters used for the hazard analysis .......................................... 14 Table 4: 10 districts with highest and lowest mean hazard indices ........................................................... 16 Table 5: Summary of Polychoric analysis of ZimVAC data in a good, typical and bad year ........................ 17 Table 6: Results of the regression analysis of food security and household-level variables ...................... 19 Table 7: Results of the regression analysis of drivers of stunting............................................................... 28 Table 8: Indicators for measuring resilience capacities .............................................................................. 35 Table 9: List of candidate well-being outcomes ......................................................................................... 37 Table 10: Summary of key measurement items ......................................................................................... 41 List of Figures Figure 1: Resilience conceptual framework .................................................................................................. 4 Figure 2: Natural Regions of Zimbabwe ........................................................................................................ 9 Figure 3: Generalized livelihood zones ......................................................................................................... 9 Figure 4: Combined risk of drought and flood ...........................................................................................