“I didn’t want to be a statistician” Making mathematical statisticians in the Second World War John Aldrich University of Southampton Seminar Durham January 2018 1 The individual before the event “I was interested in mathematics. I wanted to be either an analyst or possibly a mathematical physicist—I didn't want to be a statistician.” David Cox Interview 1994 A generation after the event “There was a large increase in the number of people who knew that statistics was an interesting subject. They had been given an excellent training free of charge.” George Barnard & Robin Plackett (1985) Statistics in the United Kingdom,1939-45 Cox, Barnard and Plackett were among the people who became mathematical statisticians 2 The people, born around 1920 and with a ‘name’ by the 60s : the 20/60s Robin Plackett was typical Born in 1920 Cambridge mathematics undergraduate 1940 Off the conveyor belt from Cambridge mathematics to statistics war-work at SR17 1942 Lecturer in Statistics at Liverpool in 1946 Professor of Statistics King’s College, Durham 1962 3 Some 20/60s (in 1968) 4 “It is interesting to note that a number of these men now hold statistical chairs in this country”* Egon Pearson on SR17 in 1973 In 1939 he was the UK’s only professor of statistics * Including Dennis Lindley Aberystwyth 1960 Peter Armitage School of Hygiene 1961 Robin Plackett Durham/Newcastle 1962 H. J. Godwin Royal Holloway 1968 Maurice Walker Sheffield 1972 5 SR 17 women in statistical chairs? None Few women in SR17: small skills pool—in 30s Cambridge graduated 5 times more men than women Post-war careers—not in statistics or universities Christine Stockman (1923-2015) Maths at Cambridge. She had started a PhD in astronomy and returned to complete it. She married astronomer Hermann Bondi. Florence Rigg (1917-2010) had a career in computing at the National Physical Laboratory and Atomic Weapons Research Establishment Vanessa Allinson (1921-2011) maths at Cambridge and career at GCHQ 6 Outline of talk Background Experience of the First World War Mathematical statistics in the 30s The Second World War The old unplanned continued The planned war—arrangements in Cambridge A major destination—SR17 Afterwards 7 A glance at the Great War Interesting because By comparison the Great War had no significant educational effects for statistics Some of the institutional changes that contributed to WW II’s positive effects on statistics had their origins in the Great War 8 In 1914 mathematical statistics had one centre in UK: Karl Pearson at UCL Over 20 years KP had built up a team researching and teaching biometry/statistics He and his team of computers could produce tables like 9 ‘System’ in the Great War Before No concept of manpower planning No expectation of a long war During before conscription: scientists, including students, volunteered for armed forces after conscription: immediate needs of forces had priority Scientists made a contribution by improvising + exploiting connections 10 A V Hill (1886-1977) improvisation & connections Pre-war Cambridge fellow and member of Officers’ Training Corps Joined infantry in 1914 In 1916 transferred to Ministry of Munitions to assemble a team to work on anti-aircraft defence Through contacts recruited Karl Pearson’s band of computers to work on ballistics 11 1917, KP’s year of ballistics computing The work Hill wanted belonged to KP’s past as prof of applied maths not to his present as prof of eugenics So why do it? KP wanted to contribute to the war effort and there was no demand for biometrics/eugenics KP wanted to preserve his team—perhaps enlarge it Staff were leaving—Herbert Soper (1865-1931) joined the Labour Corps KP had up to 20 people working but none stayed 12 Pearson’s old students— Greenwood & Yule, good war, bad war Udny Yule (1871-1952) lecturer in School of Agriculture Cambridge. Worked as statistician to the Army Contracts Department and Director of Requirements in the Ministry of Food. Major Greenwood (1880-1949 He “never spoke to me of these years with any At Ministry of Munitions which affection” recalled Maurice ran the factories supplying the Kendall army. Work played to his Did some joint work with strengths: studied sickness in Greenwood on accident factories proneness 13 Mathematical statistics did little for war and war did little for stats The only demand for math stats came through medical stats KP and Yule applied their general skills elsewhere on work unconnected with their main interest For 4 years nobody was taught—the universities were open but empty—and little research was done Losses were heavy—2000 Cambridge men killed and 3000 wounded though no ‘name’ mathematical statisticians were killed. 14 The late 30s: math stats had spread UCL still dominant. After KP’s retirement: Ronald Fisher at the Galton Lab, Egon Pearson at Applied Statistics and J B S Haldane as Professor of Biometry London School of Hygiene (Greenwood and Irwin) Cambridge University mathematics (Wishart and Bartlett) Research bodies: Rothamsted (Frank Yates), Shirley Institute (L H C Tippett), Wool Industries Research Institute (Henry Daniels) I focus on Cambridge because it was the main centre for mathematics and would supply most of the 20/60s 15 Cambridge was producing 30% of UK mathematics graduates Historically the source of mathematical statisticians Karl Pearson graduated in 1879 Ronald Fisher graduated in 1912 Harold Jeffreys graduated in 1913 Egon Pearson graduated in 1921 Frank Yates graduated in 1924 A course on the theory of errors (usually taught by an astronomer) was the closest they came to statistics 16 Statistics in Cambridge mathematics Yule retired from the School of Agriculture in 1931 Replacement John Wishart (1898-1956) came from Fisher’s Rothamsted to teach maths students as well as agricultural students Maurice Bartlett (1910-2002) came as Mathematics lecturer in 1938. A Wishart student he had worked in ESP’s department and at an ICI research establishment And not exactly statistics: Arthur Eddington taught theory of errors and Harold Jeffreys his theory of probability 17 Wishart’s pre-war course: leading somewhere or nowhere Kempthorne “I got turned off pure mathematics because it did not seem to be going anywhere. A course in statistics seemed to lead somewhere.” Barnard (aspiring mathematical logician) “I started going to it but it was so bad that I gave it up. He never got beyond moments … And I decided it was not for me.” K and a few like him had planned careers in statistics B and more like him had unplanned careers 18 Planning the scientific war—A V Hill As Secretary of Royal Society initiates Register of Scientific Personnel Besides efficiency a personal dimension reflecting his own experience in Great War: Nobel Prize for “I was aware that there were physiology other tasks I could undertake which were really more essential, From 20s UCL professor but that was not the sort of thing In 30s advises one talked about when other government on air chaps were being killed.” defence 19 The new planning Perspective Universal conscription Comprehensive manpower planning Expectation of a long, science-based war making universities part of the war machine Details University teachers exempt from conscription Special treatment for medical and science students Shorter degrees Uni committee assigns finishing students to war 20 k Planning on the ground? Join the Navy In 1939 the call went out to join the Navy—many responded The right stuff (David Kendall on the application form) a tremendous form with a narrow little band about an inch wide in which to write up one’s academic career, and huge boxes for sporting achievements in which I could write absolutely nothing! Duties (as explained to Barnard) officially to teach the junior officers basic mathematics really to answer questions about bets. “You’re in the Officers’ Mess and people will ask you about poker. How are you at it?” None were chosen 21 Planning? Join the Army Undergraduate (John Hammersley) I have just started to read mathematics here in Cambridge. Is there any use for mathematics in the army? Don/Sergeant There is no use for mathematics in this war and in any case you are only an undergraduate. The services have taken just three professional mathematicians from Cambridge, one for the navy to tell them about underwater explosions, one for the air force to explain stellar navigation My mathematical job is to add up the daily totals of recruits for the army, navy and air force respectively. 22 UCL Statistics volunteers for war Like his father, Egon Pearson wanted to contribute + keep his department together BUT “I would rather look after an anti-aircraft gun than have to compute range tables” SO The whole Department moved to the Ordnance Board People in the department include D. J. Bishop, Norman Johnson (1917-2004), B. L. Welch (1911-89) and F. N. David (1909-1993) No new statisticians trained: the teaching department closed and the Ordnance team recruited nobody 23 Cambridge statisticians volunteer Wishart (infantryman in First War) works for Military Intelligence and Admiralty—doesn’t contribute to math stats Bartlett joins the Projectile Development Establishment of the Ministry of Supply (M of M reborn) Anscombe his research student goes too Bartlett does contribute to math stats (and to stochastic processes) with research and by training David Kendall 24 1940-5: rockets and probability Initially the work was on anti- Bartlett became interested in aircraft rockets and then on stochastic processes— air-borne ground attack largely unconnected with war weapons. work and under the influence Lots of design and analysis of of Jo Moyal a refugee from experiments. Continuation of France and familiar with pre-war research international probability.