A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Auktor, Georgeta Vidican; Altenburg, Tilman; Stamm, Andreas Research Report The transition towards a green economy and its implications for quality infrastructure Studies, No. 102 Provided in Cooperation with: German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), Bonn Suggested Citation: Auktor, Georgeta Vidican; Altenburg, Tilman; Stamm, Andreas (2020) : The transition towards a green economy and its implications for quality infrastructure, Studies, No. 102, ISBN 978-3-96021-131-0, Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE), Bonn, http://dx.doi.org/10.23661/s102.2020 This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/224984 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. 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On the basis of independent research, it acts as consultant to public institutions in Germany and abroad on current issues of cooperation between developed and developing countries. Through its nine-month training course, the DIE prepares German and European university graduates for careers in the field of development policy. Dr Georgeta Vidican Auktor is an associate researcher at the German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) in Bonn with expertise in industrial policy, sustainability transition and innovation policy in developing and emerging countries. She earned her PhD in International Development from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Email: [email protected] Dr Tilman Altenburg is the head of the research programme “Transformation of Economic and Social Systems” at the German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) in Bonn. Email: [email protected] Dr Andreas Stamm is a senior researcher with the research programme “Transformation of Economic and Social Systems” at the German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE). Email: [email protected] Studies Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik 102 The transition towards a green economy and its implications for quality infrastructure Georgeta Vidican Auktor Tilman Altenburg Andreas Stamm Bonn 2020 Studies / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik ISSN (Print) 1860-0468 ISSN (Online) 2512-8795 Except as otherwise noted, this publication is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY 4.0). You are free to copy, communicate and adapt this work, as long as you attribute the German Development Institute / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik (DIE) and the authors. Die deutsche Nationalbibliothek verzeichnet diese Publikation in der Deutschen Nationalbibliografie; detaillierte bibliografische Daten sind im Internet über http:// dnb.d-nb.de abrufbar. The Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie; detailed bibliographic data is available at http://dnb.d-nb.de. ISBN 978-3-96021-131-0 (printed edition) DOI:10.23661/s102.2020 Printed on eco-friendly, certified paper On behalf of the Federal Government of Germany, the Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt (PTB) promotes the improvement of the framework conditions for economic, social and environmentally friendly action and thus supports the development of quality infrastructure. The study was commissioned by PTB in this context. The analysis, results and recommendations in this paper represent the opinion of the author(s) and are not necessarily representative of the position of PTB. Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt Braunschweig und Berlin National Metrology Institute © Deutsches Institut für Entwicklungspolitik gGmbH Tulpenfeld 6, 53113 Bonn +49 (0)228 94927-0 +49 (0)228 94927-130 Email: [email protected] http://www.die-gdi.de Contents Abbreviations Executive summary 1 1 Introduction 7 2 Quality infrastructure and the green economy 10 2.1 Quality infrastructure: a system of interrelated services 10 2.2 The importance of NQI systems in the transition towards green economies 13 3 Past trends in green technology development: a patent data perspective 18 3.1 Using patents to assess trends in green innovation 19 3.2 Green patenting activity by technological domain 22 3.3 Green patenting by countries 32 3.4 Summary 48 4 Expected trends in the transition to a green economy and implications for QI 50 4.1 Research design 51 4.2 Trends in green technologies: deployment and domestic capabilities 55 4.2.1 Emerging economies 58 4.2.2 Developing countries 64 4.3 Summary on future market trends and domestic capabilities 71 4.4 Implications for QI investments 73 4.4.1 Sophistication of the QI system 74 4.4.2 Needed QI system improvements 83 4.5 Summary on QI implications 89 5 Case studies of transition to a green economy and implications for QI 91 5.1 India 93 5.1.1 The NQI system 97 5.1.2 Air pollution 101 5.1.3 Energy efficiency in buildings 104 5.1.4 Sustainable transportation 109 5.1.5 Solid waste management 113 5.1.6 Overall implications for NQI interventions 115 5.2 Morocco 119 5.2.1 The NQI system 120 5.2.2 Renewable energy systems – focus on solar energy 127 5.2.3 Energy efficiency in buildings 130 5.2.4 Solid waste management 133 5.2.5 Sustainable transportation 136 5.2.6 Water management 138 5.2.7 Overall implications for NQI interventions 140 5.3 Ethiopia 144 5.3.1 The NQI system 146 5.3.2 Renewable energy systems 149 5.3.3 Sustainable transportation – focus on rail-bound passenger and freight transport 155 5.3.4 Solid waste management 157 5.3.5 Sustainable agriculture and land management 159 5.3.6 Overall implications for NQI interventions 160 5.4 Comparative perspectives 165 5.4.1 QI capabilities for the transition to a green economy 165 5.4.2 QI capabilities for specific green technology sectors 167 6 Key findings and implications for quality infrastructure in developing and emerging economies 171 6.1 Market trends and QI implications 172 6.2 Recommendations for QI development 173 Bibliography 177 Appendix 192 Boxes Box 1: Insights into other aspects of the transition to a green economy 70 Box 2: Trends in environmental regulations and standards 87 Box 3: Off-grid options for electricity access 153 Figures Figure 1: Number of green patents by year, 1975-2017, all countries 23 Figure 2: Green technology classes by number of patents and AAGR, 1975-2015 33 Figure 3: Average number of all green patents by year (t; t-3), by country (leaders) 37 Figure 4: Average number of green patents by year (t; t-3), by group of countries 39 Figure 5: Average number of green patents by year (t; t-3) in emerging countries (excluding China) 40 Figure 6: Mixed methods approach 52 Figure 7: Research design for Phase 2 – the Delphi surveys 54 Figure 8: The degree of sophistication of green technology families 56 Figure 9: Expected trends in market development for selected green technologies in emerging economies 59 Figure 10: Level of domestic value added and technological capabilities to be provided in emerging economies by 2030 60 Figure 11: Expected trends in market development for selected green technologies in developing countries 65 Figure 12: Level of domestic value added and technological capabilities to be provided in developing countries by 2030 66 Tables Table 1: NQI services and associated institutions 12 Table 2: Categorisation of green technologies used in this study 14 Table 3: Green technology classes 21 Table 4: Number of green patents by aggregate technological class, all countries 24 Table 5: Top 10 green technological domains in terms of total number of patents, 1975-2017, all countries 27 Table 6: Green patents by selected classes in selected years as per cent of total patents in each year 28 Table 7: Fastest growing green technological classes (classes with an above-average AAGR) 30 Table 8: Green technology classes