Economic Strategy & Intelligence Author : Piers Elias th Date : 19 February 2013 Dwelling and Household Change in the Tees Valley Mid 2001 to Mid 2011 1 Introduction 1.1 This note looks at the change in the numbers of Dwellings and Households at Local Authority and Ward level over the 10 year period between the 2001 and 2011. For equivalence purposes the Mid Year figures will be used. 1.2 Figures are compared based on the current Wards so for Darlington, Middlesbrough, Redcar & Cleveland these are 2003 boundaries, for Stockton-on-Tees 2005 boundaries and for Hartlepool, 2012 boundaries. 1.3 An analysis of changes in population at Ward level was published in January 2013 and is available to download from our web-site here. 1.4 Dwellings are defined by ONS as all Household Spaces and so include vacant dwellings and shared dwellings. Households are defined as a household space with at least one resident. For the purposes of this report the terms Dwellings (Total Household Spaces) and Households (Occupied Household Spaces) will be used. See Appendix 1 for the full ONS definitions. 2 Headline Results for Dwellings and Vacancy The largest increases in dwellings between Mid 2001 and Mid 2011 were seen in the two Ingleby Barwick Wards, Stockton-on-Tees (East +1,300, West +900) and Hart Ward, Hartlepool (+1,150). Faverdale Ward, Darlington had the largest percentage rise of 83%. These Wards have all seen significant new housing development over the 10 year period. The largest decrease was seen in South Bank Ward in Redcar & Cleveland, with 735 fewer dwellings (down 21% compared to Mid 2001). Victoria Ward in Hartlepool, Grangetown Ward, Redcar & Cleveland and Hardwick Ward, Stockton-on-Tees all decreased by around 400 dwellings between Mid 2001 and Mid 2011. Vacancy rates were lower for all the Tees Valley Authorities, with Middlesbrough showing the largest improvement from 6.1% in Mid 2001 to 4.9% in Mid 2011. For Tees Valley as a whole it was 4.1%, down from 4.7% in Mid 2001. This improvement went against the national trend where vacancy rates increased from 3.9% in 2001 to 4.4% in 2011. At Ward level, vacancy rates varied from under 2% - (9 Wards) with Coulby Newham Ward, Middlesbrough having the lowest vacancy rate of 1.5% - to a rate of over 10% (2 Wards – both in Middlesbrough) Gresham Ward with 13.0% vacancy and Middlehaven Ward, 10.9%. Further analyses on dwellings at Ward level are given in Tables 3 and 4 below. Page 1 of 29 3 Headline Results for Households and Average Household Size The results are broadly similar to the Dwellings above; the largest increases in households between Mid 2001 and Mid 2011 were seen in the two Ingleby Barwick Wards, Stockton-on-Tees (East +1,215, West +870) and Hart Ward, Hartlepool (+1,050). Again, Faverdale Ward, Darlington had the largest percentage rise of 83%. The largest decrease was seen in South Bank Ward in Redcar & Cleveland, with 555 fewer households (down 17% compared to Mid 2001). Jesmond Ward in Hartlepool, and Grangetown Ward, Redcar & Cleveland, both decreased by around 260 households. Average Household Size (AHS) fell for all Tees Valley Local Authorities from 2.39 to 2.31 – a fall of 3.6%. This is a result of the change in the number of households exceeding the change in household population. The fall was largest in Redcar & Cleveland where AHS fell by 6.3%, a combination of declining population (-2.6%) and household growth (+3.8%). At Ward level the range of AHS ranged from close to 3 per household (2.92) in Ingleby Barwick West Ward, Stockton-on-Tees to fewer than 2 per household (1.88) in Central Ward, Darlington. Three other Wards had an AHS of below 2 per household; Coatham Ward, Redcar & Cleveland; Headland & Harbour Ward, Hartlepool and Saltburn Ward, Redcar & Cleveland. Further analyses on Households at Ward level are given in Tables 5 and 6 below. 4 Background 4.1 The Ward dwelling and household estimates are consistent with ONS 2011 Census data and then rolled forwards to Mid Year 2011. 4.2 The move from Census Day to Mid Year 2011 takes into account changes in numbers of postal addresses from the Royal Mail Postcode Address File (PAF) that records the changes to addresses. Extracts were available for dates very close to Census day, 27th March and to 30th June. In practice, the changes were small. Vacancy rates were assumed to remain the same as Census day, as was the proportion of the household population to the total resident population. 4.3 ONS do not produce household estimates at Ward level other than at the Census. CLG publish estimates of households at Local Authority level but not at Ward level. Council Tax counts (equivalent to dwellings) are released by CLG at Census OA level and ONS used the Council Tax registers as a way of quality checking the census results. TVU use a combination of Council Tax and Royal Mail PAF to roll forwards household and dwelling estimates during annual updates and hope to use the vacancy data from the Council tax files to maintain better estimates of vacancy in the intercensal period. 5 Local Authority Dwellings and Vacancy Change 5.1 Table 1 below shows the change in the number of dwellings and change in vacancy rates for the Tees Valley Local Authorities. Both sets of Tees Valley figures relate to the Mid Year Estimate immediately after the Census, with all adjustments included. Page 2 of 29 Table 1 – Local Authority Dwelling and Vacancy Rate Changes Mid 2001 Mid 2011 Change 2001-11 % Change 2001-11 Mid 2001 Mid 2011 % Point Change 2001-11 Local Authority Dwellings Dwellings Dwellings Dwellings Vacancy Vacancy Vacancy Darlington 44,420 48,785 4,365 9.8% 4.6% 4.3% -0.3% Hartlepool 40,165 42,090 1,925 4.8% 4.9% 4.0% -0.9% Middlesbrough 60,265 60,180 -85 -0.1% 6.1% 4.9% -1.2% Redcar & Cleveland 59,930 61,985 2,055 3.4% 4.1% 3.8% -0.3% Stockton-on-Tees 77,420 82,265 4,845 6.3% 4.2% 3.8% -0.4% Tees Valley 282,200 295,305 13,105 4.6% 4.7% 4.1% -0.6% England & Wales 22,538,600 24,429,600 1,891,000 8.4% 3.9% 4.4% 0.5% Source : E&W 2001 Census, 2011 Census Estimates. TV Local Authorities: Census based rolled forwards to Mid Year (TVU) - Mid 2001 includes an adjustment following the findings of the Local Authority Studies which added population for Mid 2001 to Hartlepool, Middlesbrough and Stockton-on-Tees. LA Study details here. 5.2 The number of dwellings in Darlington increased faster than England & Wales as a whole, while Middlesbrough experienced a very small decrease. 5.3 Vacancy rates fell in all the Tees Valley Authorities. This was equivalent to 1,100 dwellings moving from being vacant to becoming occupied. This went against the national trend where a 0.5% percentage point rise was seen, equivalent to 185,500 occupied households becoming vacant. The improvement in vacancy rate was highest in Middlesbrough where rates fell from 6.1% to 4.9%; equivalent to an extra 730 occupied households. 6 Local Authority Households and Average Household Size Changes 6.1 Table 2 below shows the change in the number of households and change in average household size (AHS). Table 2 – Local Authority Household and Average Household Size Change Mid 2001 Mid 2011 Change 2001-11 % Change 2001-11 Mid 2001 Mid 2011 Change 2001-11 % Change 2001-11 Local Authority Households Households Households Households Household Size Household Size Household Size Household Size Darlington 42,385 46,685 4,300 10.1% 2.27 2.23 -0.04 -1.6% Hartlepool 38,210 40,410 2,200 5.8% 2.34 2.26 -0.08 -3.5% Middlesbrough 56,580 57,225 645 1.1% 2.46 2.38 -0.08 -3.4% Redcar & Cleveland 57,460 59,615 2,155 3.8% 2.40 2.25 -0.15 -6.3% Stockton-on-Tees 74,185 79,135 4,950 6.7% 2.44 2.38 -0.06 -2.6% Tees Valley 268,820 283,070 14,250 5.3% 2.39 2.31 -0.09 -3.6% England & Wales 21,660,500 23,366,044 1,705,544 7.9% 2.36 2.36 0.00 -0.1% Source : E&W 2001 Census, 2011 Census Estimates. TV Local Authorities: Census based rolled forwards to Mid Year (TVU) - Mid 2001 includes an adjustment following the findings of the Local Authority Studies which added population for Mid 2001 to Hartlepool, Middlesbrough and Stockton-on-Tees. LA Study details here. 6.2 The number of households for all Tees Valley Local Authorities increased faster than the numbers of dwellings between 2001 and 2011 and explains why vacancy rates fell – see Table 1 above. 6.3 Average household size fell in all Tees Valley Local Authorities; i.e. the household population has grown slower than the number of households. Nationally, there was virtually no change to AHS so household population grew at the same rate as households. 7 Ward level Dwelling and Household change in the Tees Valley 7.1 Dwellings - Table 3 below shows the 10 Wards which experienced the highest percentage growth in dwelling numbers between Mid 2001 and Mid 2011. Page 3 of 29 Table 3 – Wards with highest % dwelling growth in the Tees Valley Mid 2001 Mid 2011 Mid 2011 - Mid 2001 Mid 2011 - Mid 2001 Dist Ward_Name Total Dwellings Total Dwellings Difference in Dwellings % Difference in Dwellings D Faverdale 685 1,255 570 83% S Ingleby Barwick East 2,640 3,945 1,305 49% H Hart 2,325 3,470 1,145 49% S Northern Parishes 935 1,370 435 47% D Middleton St.