Morava Corridor Motorway Project Chapter 5: Baseline Conditions 5 BASELINE CONDITIONS This Chapter comprises the collection of baseline data representative of the Study Area covering Area of Influence, which is defined in the following paragraphs, in order to provide a baseline against which the impacts of the Project can be assessed. The baseline takes into account current conditions and those changing conditions (e.g., increasing traffic load on the transportation network and its environmental and social consequences) apparent in the baseline. It takes into consideration other developments in the area which are underway or certain to be initiated in the near future. The baseline description has the following main objectives: to focus on receptors that were identified during scoping phase and further discussed in the ESIA stage as having the potential to be significantly affected by the Project; to describe and where possible quantify their characteristics (nature, condition, quality, extent etc.); to provide data to aid the prediction and evaluation of possible impacts; and to inform judgments about the sensitivity, vulnerability and/or importance of resources/receptors. In the following sections of this Chapter, description of the methodologies (e.g., those applied for ecological surveys meeting the requirements of PS6 of IFC), limitations and results of the data collection, as well as a summary of the baseline conditions are provided. 5.1 Definition of the Area of Influence The Area of Influence (AoI) is an important element in assessing environmental and social impacts of a proposed development since it informs about the physical and/or social extent onto which the assessment should be performed. According to the definition in IFC PS-1, the AoI encompasses the followings: The area likely to be affected by: o (i) the project1 and the client’s activities and facilities that are directly owned, operated or managed (including by contractors) and that are a component of the project2; o (ii) impacts from unplanned, but predictable developments caused by the project that may occur later or at a different location; or 1 Examples include the project’s sites, the immediate air shed and watershed, and/or transport corridors. 2 Examples include canals, tunnels, relocation and access roads, borrow and disposal areas, construction camps, power transmission corridors, pipelines and contaminated land (e.g., soil, groundwater, surface water, and sediments). ESIA Final Draft Report May 2020 SE102-000-ES-REP-00002 1 / 319 Morava Corridor Motorway Project Chapter 5: Baseline Conditions o (iii) indirect project impacts on biodiversity or on ecosystem services upon which Affected Communities’ livelihoods are dependent. Associated facilities, which are facilities that are not funded as part of the project and that would not have been constructed or expanded if the project did not exist and without which the project would not be viable3. Cumulative impacts4 that result from the incremental impact on areas or resources used or directly influenced by the project, from other existing, planned or reasonably defined developments at the time when the risks and impacts identification process is conducted. For this study, two different definitions of AoI have been used for social and environmental baseline studies. 5.1.1 Environmental Area of Influence The relevant environmental AoI for the Project can be divided into two main parts. The first part covers the followings; The Proposed Motorway Route, The extended AoI of the Project, including access roads, quarries, asphalt and batch plants, maintenance areas, and construction camps to be realized due to the Project, Area of receptors (i.e. soil, surface water and ground water) that may be impacted from supply and waste management operations. For the intense and direct impacts associated with the project activities in construction and operational phases, the immediate vicinity of the Proposed Motorway Route covering above mentioned three items is considered to be a corridor of 1,000 m width (500 m on each side of the motorway) along the Proposed Motorway Route. This is the first part of the Environmental AoI along the Proposed Motorway Route. In addition, the following areas compose the second part of the Environmental AoI due to the fact that the there can be impacts (e.g., handling of wastes and transportation of the supply materials to the site from a long distance) associated with the activities in relation to the Project outside the corridor of 1,000 m width: Waste disposal facilities and the roads associated with waste management (i.e. sanitary landfills, waste recycling facilities), and 3 Associated facilities may include permanent facilities such as railways, roads, captive power plants or transmission lines, pipelines, utilities, warehouses, logistics terminals which are already existing in the region or non-permanent facilities such as capms, quarries, borrow pits and asphalt plants which are planned to be used directly for the project. 4 Cumulative impacts are limited to those impacts generally recognized as important on the basis of scientific concerns and/or concerns from Affected Communities. Examples of cumulative impacts include: incremental contribution of gaseous emissions to an airshed; reduction of water flows in a watershed due to multiple withdrawals; increases in sediment loads to a watershed; interference with migratory routes or wildlife movement; or more traffic congestion and accidents due to increases in vehicular traffic on community roadways. ESIA Final Draft Report May 2020 SE102-000-ES-REP-00002 2 / 319 Morava Corridor Motorway Project Chapter 5: Baseline Conditions Material supply locations and the roads associated with transport of such materials. A total of 700 m wide corridor is specified as the protection zone in the Spatial Plan of E-761 Motorway Infrastructure Corridor (see Chapter-3 for the detailed information about the zone). When determining the AoI as 1,000 m, the first intension was to cover this 700 m wide protection zone. Then, activities causing impacts on a wider range were considered. In this respect, the most important aspect that was taken into account is the impact area regarding the air pollutant emissions which are expected to have impact on a wider area than the other impacts of the Project such as noise or impacts on surface water and soil. In this respect, a total of 1,000 m width was chosen as the first part of the Environmental AoI. The size of the chosen area depends upon the types of the emission sources, mass of the emissions, and types of the pollutants being emitted as well as the topography and meteorological conditions of the area. The map for specified environmental AoI is given in Figure 5-1. Figure 5-1. Environmental Area of Influence ESIA Final Draft Report May 2020 SE102-000-ES-REP-00002 3 / 319 Morava Corridor Motorway Project Chapter 5: Baseline Conditions 5.1.2 Social Area of Influence The social impacts have been determined by both environmental and social factors including different spatial and temporal scopes. The spatial scope of the Social Area of Influence (AoI) includes the following areas: The Primary AoI: The primary area of influence encompasses a corridor of 500 m (being 250 m on each side of the Motorway centerline). This corridor is potentially expected to experience the land acquisition impacts in addition to other environmental and social impacts. The Secondary AoI: Area of potential socioeconomic impacts directly associated with the Project activities (e.g. health impact caused by traffic movement, air pollution, and impact on resources used by the villages.) Area of Indirect Impacts: Area of potential socioeconomic impacts indirectly induced by the Project activities (e.g. increase in the local employment rate and incomes, contacts with the Project personnel, labour migration). Temporal scope of the Project includes, Immediate (<1 year) Short term (1-4 years), Medium term (5-15 years), Long term (the impact will cease after the operational life span of the project) Permanent (no mitigation measure of natural process will reduce the impact after construction). Table 5-1. Potential Social Impacts According to Settlements in the Area of Influence Distance to Impact zones Expected impacts centerline Physical displacement at Project footprint Economic displacement at Project footprint Cultural heritage Access to ecosystem services Primary AoI 250 m Employment opportunities Economic development Impacts on infrastructure and services Community health and safety impacts Employment opportunities Secondary Economic development at village level 500 m AoI Impacts on infrastructure and services at village level Community health and safety impacts at village level Area of Economic development at municipal level Indirect 500m+ Impacts on infrastructure and services at municipal level Impacts ESIA Final Draft Report May 2020 SE102-000-ES-REP-00002 4 / 319 Morava Corridor Motorway Project Chapter 5: Baseline Conditions When determining the primary and secondary AoI, the zones specified in the Spatial Plan of E-761 Motorway Infrastructure Corridor were taken into consideration (detailed information about zones are provided in Chapter-3 of the ESIA Report). In this plan, a total of 700 m wide protection zone is specified and the AoI is determined to cover this zone. There are 7 municipalities located in the Social AoI, including 48 affected villages within those municipalities. Table 5-2 presents the respective information on each affected municipalities of the Project. Table 5-2. Municipalities Located in the Social AoI Municipality Number of settlements within the AoI of the Project Ćićevac 4 Varvarin 2 Kruševac 7 Vrnjačka Banja 6 Trstenik 8 Kraljevo 11 Čačak 10 TOTAL 48 5.2 Hydrology The proposed Project is located in the West (Zapadna) Morava River basin, and the Proposed Motorway Route mainly follows the West Morava River opposite to the river flow direction of west to south. Due to the flooding risks, the West Morava River has been studied by the Jaroslav Cerni Institute for Water Management in terms of hydrotechnical aspects.