Multi-Level Modeling of Complex Socio-Technical Systems Report No. CCSE-2013-01 Dr. William B. Rouse, Stevens Institute of Technology Dr. Douglas A. Bodner, Georgia Institute of Technology Report No. CCSE-2013-01 June 11, 2013 Copyright © 2013 Stevens Institute of Technology, Systems Engineering Research Center This material is baseD upon work supporteD, in whole or in part, by the U.S. Department of Defense through the Systems Engineering Research Center (SERC) unDer Contract H98230-08-D-0171. SERC is a feDerally funDeD University AffiliateD Research Center manageD by Stevens Institute of Technology The authors gratefully acknowledge the helpful comments anD suggestions of John Casti anD HarolD Sorenson Any opinions, finDings anD conclusions or recommenDations expresseD in this material are those of the author(s) anD Do not necessarily reflect the views of the UniteD States Department of Defense. NO WARRANTY THIS STEVENS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY AND SYSTEMS ENGINEERING RESEARCH CENTER MATERIAL IS FURNISHED ON AN “AS-IS” BASIS. STEVENS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY MAKES NO WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND, EITHER EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AS TO ANY MATTER INCLUDING, BUT NOT LIMITED TO, WARRANTY OF FITNESS FOR PURPOSE OR MERCHANTABILITY, EXCLUSIVITY, OR RESULTS OBTAINED FROM USE OF THE MATERIAL. STEVENS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY DOES NOT MAKE ANY WARRANTY OF ANY KIND WITH RESPECT TO FREEDOM FROM PATENT, TRADEMARK, OR COPYRIGHT INFRINGEMENT. Center for Complex Systems & Enterprises Report No. CCSE-2013-01 June 11, 2013 2 ABSTRACT This report presents a conceptual framework for multi-level moDeling of complex socio- technical systems, proviDes linkages to the historical roots anD technical unDerpinnings of this framework, anD outlines a catalog of component moDels for populating multi-level moDels. This incluDes a Description of the “systems movement,” a summary of philosophical unDerpinnings, a review of seminal concepts, an overview of complex systems, Discussion of complex aDaptive systems, anD contrasts of a range of systems approaches. Alternative moDeling frameworks, incluDing multi-level moDeling frameworks, problem structuring methoDs, anD computational representations, are also aDDresseD. A proposeD framework is presenteD for multi-level moDeling of socio-technical systems, incluDing discussion of the phenomena typically associateD with each level, as well as a wiDe range of moDels of human behavior anD performance. A comparison is provided of multi-level representations of the Domains of healthcare Delivery, energy consumption, anD military operations. An illustrative example is presenteD focuseD on counterfeit parts in the military supply chain, in terms of both the consequences of such parts anD interDicting the motivations to counterfeit. Finally, a wiDe range of funDamental research issues unDerlying multi-level moDeling of complex systems is summarizeD. KeyworDs: Multi-level moDels, socio-technical systems, complex systems, complexity, moDels of human behaviors anD performance, Decision making Center for Complex Systems & Enterprises Report No. CCSE-2013-01 June 11, 2013 3 This Page Intentionally Left Blank Center for Complex Systems & Enterprises Report No. CCSE-2013-01 June 11, 2013 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS Abstract ................................................................................................................................ 3 Table of Contents .................................................................................................................. 5 Figures and Tables ................................................................................................................. 7 1.0 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 8 2.0 Background ..................................................................................................................... 9 2.1 Systems Movement .................................................................................................................9 2.2 Philosophical Background ...................................................................................................... 10 2.3 Seminal Concepts .................................................................................................................. 11 2.3.1 Systems Science........................................................................................................................ 11 2.3.2 Economics/Cognition ............................................................................................................... 12 2.3.3 Operations Research ................................................................................................................ 13 2.3.4 Sociology................................................................................................................................... 14 2.4 Complex Systems ................................................................................................................... 14 2.5 Systems Approaches .............................................................................................................. 17 3.0 Alternative Frameworks ................................................................................................ 21 3.1 Problem Structuring Methods ................................................................................................ 22 3.2 Computational Representations ............................................................................................. 24 3.3 Summary ...............................................................................................................................29 4.0 Proposed Framework .................................................................................................... 30 4.1 Phenomena & Models ............................................................................................................ 32 4.2 Human Behavior & Performance Modeling ............................................................................ 34 5.0 Comparison of Domains ................................................................................................ 38 6.0 An Illustrative Example: Counterfeit Parts .................................................................... 40 6.1 Overview ...............................................................................................................................40 6.2 Enterprise Problem Characteristics ......................................................................................... 42 6.3 Conceptual Model .................................................................................................................. 43 6.3.1 Domain Ecosystem .................................................................................................................... 43 6.3.2 System Structure ....................................................................................................................... 44 6.3.3 Delivery Operations ................................................................................................................... 45 6.3.4 Work Practices .......................................................................................................................... 46 6.3.5 Relationships between Levels ................................................................................................... 48 6.4 Analysis Scenarios .................................................................................................................. 49 7.0 Research Issues ............................................................................................................. 51 7.1 Decomposition ...................................................................................................................... 51 7.2 Mapping ................................................................................................................................52 7.3 Scaling ...................................................................................................................................52 7.4 Approximation ...................................................................................................................... 52 7.5 Identification ......................................................................................................................... 53 7.6 Parameterization ................................................................................................................... 53 7.7 Propagation........................................................................................................................... 53 Center for Complex Systems & Enterprises Report No. CCSE-2013-01 June 11, 2013 5 7.8 Visualization .......................................................................................................................... 54 7.9 Curation ................................................................................................................................54 8.0 Conclusions ................................................................................................................... 54 9.0 References .................................................................................................................... 56 Center for Complex Systems & Enterprises Report No. CCSE-2013-01 June 11, 2013 6 FIGURES AND TABLES Figure 1. Relationship of Complexity anD Intentions ..................................................................