UHI Research Database pdf download summary Climate Risk Assessment for Heart of Neolithic Orkney World Heritage property Jon Day; Scott Heron; Ewan Hyslop; Rebecca Jones; Adam Markham; Alice Lyall; Downes, Jane; Gibson, Julie Publication date: 2019 Publisher rights: ©2019 The Authors The re-use license for this item is: CC BY-NC The Document Version you have downloaded here is: Publisher's PDF, also known as Version of record Link to author version on UHI Research Database Citation for published version (APA): Jon Day, Scott Heron, Ewan Hyslop, Rebecca Jones, Adam Markham, Alice Lyall, Downes, J., & Gibson, J. (2019). Climate Risk Assessment for Heart of Neolithic Orkney World Heritage property: An application of the Climate Vulnerability Index. 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Download date: 30. Sep. 2021 CLIMATE RISK ASSESSMENT FOR HEART OF NEOLITHIC ORKNEY WORLD HERITAGE PROPERTY An application of the Climate Vulnerability Index Authors Jon C. Day1, Scott F. Heron2, Adam Markham3,4, Jane Downes4,5, Julie Gibson5,6, Ewan Hyslop7, Rebecca Jones7, Alice Lyall7 Afliations 1 ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville Q4811, Australia 2 Physics, College of Science and Engineering, James Cook University, Townsville Q4811, Australia 3 Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA 4 ICOMOS Climate Change and Heritage Working Group 5 University of the Highlands and Islands, Scotland, United Kingdom 6 Orkney Islands Council, Scotland, United Kingdom 7 Historic Environment Scotland, Longmore House, Salisbury Place, Edinburgh EH9 1SH, United Kingdom Published June 2019 Citation Day JC, Heron SF, Markham A, Downes J, Gibson J, Hyslop E, Jones RH, Lyall A (2019) Climate Risk Assessment for Heart of Neolithic Orkney World Heritage property: An application of the Climate Vulnerability Index. Historic Environment Scotland, Edinburgh. Contact Enquiries regarding this report should be addressed to: Historic Environment Scotland, Longmore House, Salisbury Place, Edinburgh EH9 1SH, United Kingdom Cover Skara Brae. All images © 2019 HES, except where stated. Climate Risk Assessment for Heart of Neolithic Orkney World Heritage property 1 An application of the Climate Vulnerability Index CONTENTS Executive Summary 2 6 Next steps 46 6.1 Findings from the CVI process 47 1 Introduction 4 i) Sea Level Change 1.1 Background to this report 5 ii) Precipitation Change 1.2 Overview of the Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) 5 iii) Storm Intensity and Frequency 1.3 Why was Orkney chosen to trial the CVI? 6 iv) Economic, social and cultural issues 6.2 Gaps identifed 48 2 The Heart of Neolithic Orkney (HONO) i) Research gaps World Heritage property 8 ii) Policy and guidance gaps 2.1 Location 9 6.3 Lessons for other properties 48 2.2 The World Heritage property 12 i) Lessons for Scottish WH properties i) Skara Brae ii) Lessons for non-WH sites across Orkney ii) Ring of Brodgar and associated monuments iii) Lessons for other sites across Scotland iii) Stones of Stenness and the Watch Stone 6.4 Recommendations for Scottish World 50 iv) Maeshowe and the Barnhouse Stone Heritage properties 2.3 Implications of World Heritage status 16 6.5 Revisiting the CVI process 50 2.4 Identifying the values of the World Heritage 17 6.6 Wider applications 50 property 2.5 Managing the World Heritage property 19 Acknowledgements 52 2.6 Evaluation of current condition and trend 23 of the key World Heritage values Appendices 54 A1 Statement of Outstanding Universal 55 3 The context for HONO 24 Value for the World Heritage-listed 3.1 Physical geography and landscape 25 ‘Heart of Neolithic Orkney’ 3.2 Ecology and agriculture 25 A2 Overview of the methodology for the 58 3.3 Economic context 27 Climate Vulnerability Index (CVI) 3.4 Social and cultural context 28 A3 Overview of the CVI workshop in Orkney 68 A4 Outline of CVI workshop: 23rd- 25th April, 72 4 Climate and its infuence on HONO 30 Stromness, Orkney 4.1 Current climate 31 A5 List of participants in the CVI workshop, Orkney 74 4.2 Observed climate trends 31 A6 List of signifcant local values that 76 4.3 Anticipated climate change 32 are locally, regionally or nationally signifcant i) Global climate change and the Paris Agreement for Heart of Neolithic Orkney ii) Climate projections for Orkney A7 The management planning process 84 for the Heart of Neolithic Orkney 5 Applying the Climate Vulnerability 38 A8 Acronyms and glossary 88 Index (CVI) to HONO 5.1 Preparatory steps 40 5.2 OUV Vulnerability 42 5.3 Community Vulnerability 43 5.4 Summary 45 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Maeshowe Chambered Cairn Climate Risk Assessment for Heart of Neolithic Orkney World Heritage property 3 An application of the Climate Vulnerability Index Climate change is the fastest growing global threat to + determined that the OUV Vulnerability was in the World Heritage (WH). Many WH properties around the highest category (High), indicating the potential for world are already experiencing signifcant negative major loss or substantial alteration of the majority impacts, damage and degradation. These and many of the values that comprise the OUV others are vulnerable to climate impacts, including + assessed Community Vulnerability to be in the from rising temperatures, sea level rise, extreme middle category (Moderate), acknowledging precipitation, fooding, coastal erosion, drought, the high level of adaptive capacity within the worsening wildfres, and human displacement, and will community be at risk in the future. Recently observed trends are + concluded that climate impacts are increasingly expected to continue and accelerate as climate change likely to add to a wide range of compounding intensifes. pressures including growing tourism numbers, infrastructure development and changing This report describes outcomes from a workshop in agricultural practices, which collectively are Orkney, Scotland (April 2019) to apply the Climate impacting the islands, Orkney’s heritage and its Vulnerability Index (CVI). The CVI is a new methodology cultural resources. developed to rapidly assess climate impacts – both to Outstanding Universal Value (OUV) and the associated While the CVI methodology is currently in a pilot ‘community’ (local, domestic and international) – for phase, the Orkney workshop highlighted the value all types of WH properties (natural, cultural or mixed). of a transparent and repeatable framework for In its frst application to a cultural WH property, the rapid assessment of climate impacts on heritage CVI process was undertaken for the ‘Heart of Neolithic properties. Historic Environment Scotland will integrate Orkney’ (HONO). the fndings from the CVI workshop into the 2019 Management Plan revision and has recommended that HONO is comprised of four sites, among the most the CVI process be repeated for HONO on a fve-yearly important Neolithic monuments in northern Europe, and cycle as part of the management review cycle. was inscribed on the UNESCO WH List in 1999. Today these monuments remain dominant in a rural landscape, There are currently six WH properties in Scotland and providing a unique testimony to ceremonial, funerary climate change has been identifed as a current or and domestic components of cultural traditions which potential risk to all; a full CVI assessment would be a fourished between 3000 BC and 2000 BC. valuable contribution to understanding climate impacts on these properties. There is also scope to employ the The CVI workshop for HONO: CVI methodology to inform the development of future + involved site managers, academics, responsible WH nominations in Scotland and beyond. management agencies, businesses, the local community and other stakeholders Additional pilot CVI workshops involving diferent types + identifed the three key climate drivers that present of heritage at other WH properties around the world the greatest threat – Precipitation Change, Sea are planned to help further test, improve and refne the Level Change, and Storm Intensity and Frequency – CVI methodology. considered over a time scale to c. 2050 1 4 INTRODUCTION Skara Brae Climate Risk Assessment for Heart of Neolithic Orkney World Heritage property 5 An application of the Climate Vulnerability Index 1.1 Background to this report The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Climate change is the fastest growing global threat (IPCC) has predicted with ‘high confdence’ that to World Heritage (WH) properties1,2, many of which “Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 – natural, cultural and mixed – are already being and 2052 if it continues to increase