THE SMILING, SCENTED MEN: THE POLITICAL WORLDVIEW OF THE ISLAMIC STATE OF IRAQ, 2003-2013 By CRAIG ANDREW WHITESIDE A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY Department of Politics, Philosophy, and Public Affairs DECEMBER 2014 ©Copyright by CRAIG ANDREW WHITESIDE, 2014 All Rights Reserved © Copyright by CRAIG ANDREW WHITESIDE, 2014 All Rights Reserved ii To the Faculty of Washington State University: The members of the Committee appointed to examine the dissertation of CRAIG ANDREW WHITESIDE find it satisfactory and recommend that it be accepted. _____________________________ Martha Cottam, Ph.D., Chair _____________________________ Thomas Preston, Ph.D. _____________________________ Otwin Marenin, Ph.D. iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I could not have written this dissertation without the help of many people who took the time to care about my research and help me. Heider al Khoei and Fanar Haddad corresponded with me and explained various Iraqi slang and ideas about sectarian trends in Iraq from 1979 to the present. Mo Hafez shared his book Suicide Bombers in Iraq with me and gave me valuable feedback at the Naval Postgraduate School at Monterey, California at one of my presentations about this research. Karl Walling shared with me his idea about strategy as pathology. My colleague Jan Breemer listened to many of my ideas, as did Jon Czarnecki, Mitch Brown, and Casey Lucius – all of the Naval War College, Monterey. Steven Metz shared with me a chapter of a previous work that answered an important question that informed my research. Joel Rayburn shared his excellent new book with me, Iraq after America, which had some great ideas and terms that I used (and acknowledged) in the paper. Haverford College and the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point have an excellent collection of Islamic State of Iraq documents that I relied on heavily. My wife edited the entire manuscript and provided valuable grammar corrections. Finally, my Chair at Washington State University inspired this research with her theory about Images and how they influence foreign policy and decision-making and encouraged me to continue research in this area. I hope that I did not damage her academic reputation in this endeavor. Any mistakes in this work are mine alone. iv THE SMILING, SCENTED MEN: THE POLITICAL WORLDVIEW OF THE ISLAMIC STATE OF IRAQ, 2003-2013 Abstract by Craig Andrew Whiteside, Ph.D. Washington State University December 2014 Chair: Martha Cottam Political psychologists have identified patterns in the use of cognitive categorization for the structuring of the political worldview of foreign policy decision makers. This dissertation uses a mixed methods approach to investigate the political worldview of the Islamic State of Iraq since 2003 and to validate the use of Image Theory for a non-state actor for the purpose of explaining their strategic targeting. Discourse analysis is used to examine almost 3,000 messages from the group for clues to other group images. Social Identity Theory is presented as an intervening variable to explore how sectarian language is used to reinforce and sustain images of other groups, as well as identify threats to the group’s own base support. Hypotheses based on both theories were tested and evidence found to support the impact of social competition and the necessity of group survival on the process of image creation and maintenance over a ten-year period. The dissertation expands on the findings and discusses ways that social competition and demographic changes are impacting societies in the Middle East and South Asia, as well as around the world. The conclusion presents practical policy advice for communities facing these challenges in order to prevent the spiral effects seen in the Iraq case study. v Keywords: Image Theory, Social Identity Theory, Islamic State, IS, ISIS, ISIL, Iraq, sectarian violence, terrorism, insurgency. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....................................................................................................... iii ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................... iv LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................... vii LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................. viii CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ................................................................................... 10 3. CASE STUDY ................................................................................................................. 30 4. RESULTS ........................................................................................................................ 71 5. DISCUSSION ................................................................................................................ 126 6. CONCLUSION .............................................................................................................. 162 REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................... 177 APPENDIX A. Sample Coding Worksheet............................................................................................ 192 B. Coding Workbook ......................................................................................................... 193 C. Sample Data Entry ........................................................................................................ 198 D. Jurf Awakening Deaths ................................................................................................. 199 vii LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1 - The original categories of Image Theory ............................................................... 18 Table 2.2 – R. Herrmann’s Revised Image Theory Categories ................................................ 19 Table 2.3 – M. Cottam’s Image Theory Categories .................................................................. 19 Table 2.4 – Image Theory Possible Categories ........................................................................ 21 Table 2.5 – Projected al Qaeda Image Categories according to Image Theory ........................ 23 Table 3.1 – ISI World View ...................................................................................................... 51 Table 3.2 – Comparison of Pilgrim Attacks to Non-pilgrim Attacks during Pilgrim Season .. 61 Table 4.1 – Category of Messages ............................................................................................ 85 Table 4.2 – Message Type by Number ..................................................................................... 87 Table 4.3 – Message Type by Group ........................................................................................ 88 Table 4.4 – Sectarian Language .............................................................................................. 120 Table 5.1 – Political Worldview of the Islamic State of Iraq (2003-2013) ............................ 127 Table 5.2 – Potential Images for the Islamic State of Iraq ...................................................... 136 Table 5.3 – High Casualty Events in Iraq (2003-2013) and ISI claims from the database .... 142 viii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 3.1 - Comparison of Pilgrim Attacks to Overall Deaths during Pilgrim Season ........... 62 Figure 3.2 – Pilgrim Deaths during Pilgrim Season as a Percentage of Total Deaths .............. 63 Figure 3.3 – Percentage of Pilgrim Attacks Compared to Total Attacks - Pilgrim Season ...... 64 Figure 4.1 – Message Type ....................................................................................................... 86 Figure 4.2 – Analysis of four groups plus one super group .................................................... 118 Figure 4.3 – Analysis of sectarian content of messages ......................................................... 119 Figure 4.4 – Changes in message targets from 2008-2012 ..................................................... 122 Figure 4.5 – Iraqi Shia targets in messages............................................................................. 123 Figure 4.6 – Sahwa and Sunni Collaborator message targets ................................................. 123 Figure 4.7 – Total Shia versus total Sunni message targets .................................................... 124 Figure 5.1 – Claimed sectarian attacks ................................................................................... 145 ix DEDICATION I would like to express my thanks to the professors of the Department of Politics, Philosophy, and Public Affairs at Washington State University for their devotion to their students and their encouragement of me in my pursuit of knowledge. They have been the utmost professionals and inspired me to be like them. I especially would like to thank the members of my committee, who I have had the privilege of being their student the past five years and truly enjoyed every minute: Dr. Martha Cottam, Dr. Thomas Preston, and Dr. Otto Marenin. I would like to thank the staff at the Center for Advising and Career Development who supported me during my Graduate Assistantship and my employment