london’swarming The Impacts of Climate Change on London Technical Report A High Profile Launch for London’s First Climate Change Study The Mayor of London Ken Livingstone and Environment Minister Michael Meacher launched London’s Warming on 24 October 2002. The launch event was very successful, attracting a large number of people from a wide range of sectors. Many individuals attended who had not previously been involved in the Climate Impacts study but recognised that climate change is an issue that will become increasingly important in the years to come. At the Launch the Environment Minister said “The UK is leading the way in identifying the effects which climate Some climate change is now inevitable, change will have on all parts of the so we are going to have to adapt.” country, including our capital city. While the Mayor of London pointed out the particular issues that London will have to face, saying “The size of this city’s population means that there’s already huge pressure on our resources, so we have to plan properly and strategically to deal with these new demands. This report is the start of that process.” If you want to be part of that process please contact the London Climate Change Partnership at [email protected]. London Climate Change Partnership A Climate Change Impacts in London Evaluation Study Final Report November 2002 Certificate No. FS 13881 In accordance with an environmentally responsible approach, this report is printed on recycled paper produced from 100% post-consumer waste. Acknowledgements The London Climate Change Partnership, a group of stakeholders originally convened by the Government Office for London in July 2001, commissioned this work to take a first look at the impacts that climate change will have on our capital city. The members of the partnership are: The Greater London Authority (GLA), Government Office for London, the Association of London Government (ALG), the Housing Corporation, the Environment Agency, the Assocaition of British Insurers (ABI), the London Development Agency (LDA), Thames Water, the London Electricity Group, the Corporation of London, St. George Plc., Transport for London (TfL), UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP), the London Sustainabiolity Exchange and the Thames Gateway Partnership. A more comprehensive list of organisations who have taken part in meetings related to this study can be found in Appendix A. This study wsas carried out by a project consortium consisting of Entec UK Ltd, the Tyndall centre for Climate Change research, Meetroeconomica, Dr.Rob Wilby of King’s college London and Professor David Crichton, an independent consultant. The main contributors were: Simon Clarke, Jim Kersey and Emily Trevorrow of Entec UK LTd.; Rob Wilby of King’s College, London; Simon Shackley, John Turnpenny and Andy Wright of the Tyndall Centre; Alistair Hunt of Metroeconomica; and David Crichton. Certificate No. FS 13881 In accordance with an environmentally responsible approach, this report is printed on recycled paper produced from 100% post-consumer waste. Final Report i Contents Executive Summary xi 1. Setting the Scene 1 1.1 Background and Objectives 1 1.2 Why London is Different 2 1.3 Report Structure 2 2. What is Climate Change? 5 2.1 Climate Change – An Introduction 5 2.2 Progress with Climate Change at the International Level 6 2.3 Progress with Climate Change at the National Level 7 3. Baseline Climate and Environment 9 3.1 Introduction 9 3.2 Temperature 9 3.3 Precipitation (including snowfall) 14 3.4 Gales 18 3.5 Potential Evaporation and Relative Humidity 18 3.6 River Flows 19 3.7 Groundwater 23 3.8 Tidal Levels 24 3.9 Surface Water Quality 26 3.10 Air Quality 27 3.11 Biodiversity 29 3.12 Summary 35 3.13 Bibliography 36 4. Future Climate Scenarios 41 4.1 Introduction 41 4.2 Global Climate Projections 41 Final Report ii 4.3 Climate Change Scenarios for the UK and London 43 4.4 Climate Change Analogues 50 4.5 Statistical Downscaling 51 4.6 Key Uncertainties 54 4.7 Statistical Downscaling Case Study: Changes to London’s Heat Island Intensity 56 4.8 Bibliography 59 5. The Potential Environmental Impacts of Climate Change in London 61 5.1 Introduction 61 5.2 Higher Temperatures 61 5.2.1 Context 61 5.2.2 Stakeholder Concerns 61 5.2.3 Adaptation Options 62 5.3 Air Quality 63 5.3.1 Context 63 5.3.2 Stakeholder Concerns 63 5.3.3 Case Study 64 5.3.4 Adaptation Options 65 5.4 Water Resources 65 5.4.1 Context 65 5.4.2 Stakeholder Concerns 66 5.4.3 Case study 67 5.4.4 Adaptation Options 70 5.5 Flood Risk 71 5.5.1 Context 71 5.5.2 Case Study 71 5.5.3 Urban Drainage Systems 74 5.5.4 Tidal Flood Risk 75 5.5.5 Stakeholder Concerns 77 5.5.6 Adaptation Options 77 5.6 Biodiversity 78 5.6.1 Context 78 5.6.2 Freshwater Habitats 79 5.6.3 Intertidal Habitats 80 5.6.4 Terrestrial Habitats 81 5.6.5 Stakeholder Concerns 83 5.6.6 Adaptation Options 84 5.7 Summary 84 Final Report iii 5.8 Bibliography 86 6. The Potential Social Impacts of Climate Change in London 95 6.1 Introduction 95 6.2 Combining Changes in Society with Changes in Climate: The Socio-Economic Scenarios 96 6.2.1 Global Markets (GM) 98 6.2.2 Regional Sustainability (RS) 98 6.2.3 Using the Scenarios 98 6.3 The Draft London Plan: A Hybrid Scenario? 101 6.4 Need for a Comparative Approach 102 6.5 Attractiveness 103 6.6 Autonomous Adjustment and Planned Adaptation 107 6.7 Built Environment 108 6.7.1 Context 108 6.7.2 Flooding and Rainfall Intensity Impacts 110 6.7.3 Temperature Change Impacts 111 6.7.4 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences 113 6.7.5 Adaptation and Mitigation 113 6.8 The Domestic Sector 114 6.8.1 Context 114 6.8.2 Changes in rainfall and water resources 115 6.8.3 Temperature Change Impacts 116 6.8.4 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences 119 6.9 Education 120 6.9.1 Context 120 6.9.2 Flooding and Rainfall Intensity Impacts 121 6.9.3 Other Climate Change Impacts 121 6.9.4 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences 121 6.10 Redevelopment and Movement of Population 121 6.10.1 Context 121 6.10.2 Flooding and Rainfall Intensity Impacts 122 6.10.3 Temperature Change Impacts 125 6.10.4 Indirect Effects due to Demographic Changes 125 6.10.5 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences 127 6.10.6 Adaptation Options 127 6.11 Lifestyles and Consumption 128 6.11.1 Context 128 6.11.2 Temperature Change Impacts 128 Final Report iv 6.11.3 Impacts due to Global Climate Change 128 6.11.4 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences 128 6.12 Health 129 6.12.1 Context 129 6.12.2 Flooding and Rainfall Intensity Impacts 129 6.12.3 Temperature Change Impacts 129 6.12.4 Indirect Impacts - Air Pollution 131 6.12.5 Case Study: Comparison with Other Cities 132 6.13 Historical and Cultural Legacy 133 6.13.1 Context 133 6.13.2 Flooding and Rainfall Intensity Impacts 134 6.13.3 Temperature Change Impacts 134 6.13.4 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences 134 6.14 Clean City 135 6.14.1 Context 135 6.14.2 Temperature Change Impacts 135 6.14.3 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences 135 6.15 Green and Open Spaces 136 6.15.1 Context 136 6.15.2 Flooding and Rainfall Intensity Impacts 136 6.15.3 Wind Storm Impacts 136 6.15.4 Temperature Change Impacts 136 6.15.5 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences 137 6.15.6 Case Study and Comparison with Other Cities 137 6.16 Crime and Security 138 6.16.1 Context 138 6.16.2 Flooding and Rainfall Intensity Impacts 138 6.16.3 Temperature Change Impacts 140 6.16.4 Indirect Impacts to Crime and Security 141 6.17 Towards Analysis of Feedback Processes 141 6.18 Summary and Conclusions 143 6.19 References 146 7. The Potential Economic Impacts of Climate Change in London 151 7.1 Introduction 151 7.2 Outline of Methodology 152 7.3 Transport 154 7.3.1 Context 154 7.3.2 Rail Transport 155 Final Report v 7.3.3 Case Study 156 7.3.4 The London Underground Rail System 157 7.3.5 Water Transport 158 7.3.6 Road Transport 160 7.3.7 Air Transport 161 7.3.8 Historical Analogue of Climate Change Event 162 7.3.9 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences 162 7.3.10 Comparison with Other Cities 163 7.4 Energy 165 7.4.1 Context 165 7.4.2 Flooding and Rainfall Intensity Impacts 165 7.4.3 Temperature Change Impacts 165 7.4.4 Impacts Due to Wind Storms 166 7.4.5 Communications Infrastructure 166 7.4.6 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences 166 7.4.7 Comparison with Other Cities 167 7.4.8 A Case-Study of New York City 167 7.5 Insurance 169 7.5.1 Context 169 7.5.2 Flooding and Rainfall Intensity Impacts 169 7.5.3 Temperature Change Impacts 170 7.5.4 Impacts Due to Wind Storms 171 7.5.5 Raised Reservoirs 171 7.5.6 Potential Meso- and Macro-economic Effects of Climate-Change Related Impacts on the Insurance Industry 172 7.5.7 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences 173 7.5.8 Case Study 173 7.6 Financial Services 176 7.6.1 Context 176 7.6.2 Flooding and Rainfall Intensity Impacts 176 7.6.3 General Climate Change Impacts 176 7.6.4 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences 177 7.7 Manufacturing 179 7.7.1 Context 179 7.7.2 Flooding and Rainfall Intensity Impacts 179 7.7.3 Temperature Change Impacts 179 7.7.4 Impacts Due to Global Climate Change 180 7.7.5 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences 180 7.8 Environmental Business 182 7.8.1 Context 182 7.8.2 Impacts Due to Global Climate Change 182 7.8.3 Impacts Due to General Climate Change 182 Final Report vi 7.8.4 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences 183 7.9 Tourism and Leisure 186 7.9.1 Context 186 7.9.2 Flooding and Rainfall Intensity Impacts 186 7.9.3 Temperature Change Impacts 186 7.9.4 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences 188 7.10 Public Administration 190 7.10.1 Context 190 7.10.2 Impacts Due to General Climate Change 190 7.10.3 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences 190 7.11 Creative Industries 192 7.11.1 Context 192 7.11.2 Flooding and Rainfall Intensity Impacts 192 7.11.3 Impacts Due to General Climate Change 192 7.11.4 Socio-Economic Scenario Differences 192 7.12 Summary of Economic Impacts of Climate Change 194 7.13 Bibliography 196 8.